WTI prices have roller-coastered (generally lower) since last week's inventory(lower)/production(higher) data back to unchanged but as API printed a massive 8.133mm crude drawdown (vs 2.45mm exp), the biggest since Sept 2016 if DOE confirms, WTI prices quickly jumped higher. Gasoline also saw a bigger than expected draw while Distillates built.
- Crude -8.133mm (-2.45mm exp) - biggest draw since Sept 2016
- Cushing -2.028mm - biggest draw since Feb 2014
- Gasoline -801k (-534k exp)
Big drawdowns across the board last week from API and DOE added to in crude and gasoline this week...
A lot of hope today as EIA cut its 2018 crude production forecast (modestly) - “This pull-back in production is kind of wake-up call to people who thought that shale was going to be viable no matter what OPEC did,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, says by phone, adding "If output doesn’t rise as much as previously anticipated, “then it’s time for the bears to start questioning their religion again."
Notice that WTI was trading at the same level as it was when last week's API data hit before the print...once the data hit, WTI was bid above $45.50...Deja vu all over again
However, what Flynn and the algos probably missed was EIA's cut on demand expectations and price outlooks.