Is Rally Leader Amazon Breaking Down?

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

Amazon’s stock is threatening to break below a trendline that has supported it during its epic 2 and a half year run.

When historians look back at the current period in the stock market, one of the stocks that doubtless will define the era is Amazon (AMZN). Not only does the company seem bent on world, or at least U.S., domination but its stock has reflected it as well. From its IPO in 1997 until early 2015, AMZN’s stock price essentially doubled every 2.5 years. In the 2.5 years since, the stock has hit another gear.

By October 2015, AMZN’s stock price had doubled again. And at its high last Thursday of 1083, it had nearly doubled again. Over the last 3 days, however, the stock has not been so hot, losing almost 100 points from its high of last Thursday. The pullback also has the stock testing an important line on AMZN’s chart.

Since its January 2015 low, AMZN had been supported by a well-defined rising trendline (using a log chart). On about a half dozen occasions during the past 2 and a half years, the stock has bounced off nearly precise tags of the trendline.

As of today’s close (988), the stock finds itself testing the line (currently intersecting near the 990 level) once again.

As this trendline has served as near-perfect support during Amazon’s dramatic 2 and a half year run, it is obviously an important technical line to monitor for the sake of the stock. So will it hold? Obviously, we have no way of knowing for sure, although, we are a bit concerned about the now 3 touches of the trendline in the past 2 months alone. The increased frequency of touches may put the trendline in danger of being broken.

Beyond just AMZN’s stock, however, this trendline test could hold implications for the market at large. AMZN has served as one of the steady leaders during this portion of the bull market. If it breaks down, might it be a bad sign for the overall market?

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If you want that “all-access” version of these charts and research, Dana invites you to check out his new site, The Lyons Share.


Too-Big-to-Bail (not verified) Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:25 Permalink

Not below the trendline! Dear God, anything but that! Don't f*ck with my R-Sqr

Mr. Universe pitz Tue, 08/01/2017 - 17:37 Permalink

I guess they could be, but if so they ain't telling us. CALPERS the LARGEST investor in the world can't even manage 1%

The California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) today reported a preliminary 0.61 percent net return on investments for the 12-month period that ended June 30, 2016. CalPERS assets at the end of the fiscal year stood at more than $295 billion and today stands at $302 billion.

In reply to by pitz

mccvilb Too-Big-to-Bail (not verified) Tue, 08/01/2017 - 11:57 Permalink

Amazon's R sqr stock price indicates complete dissociation from the market. With a rep for screwing his employees over Bezos now is trying it with his affiliates. Doesn't need them anymore so he's closing their accounts for no reason and forcing them to pay to have their inventory removed from Amazon's fulfilment centers and either returned to them or destroyed at 50 cents ea or per sq ft. He too can buy from Alibaba. It's a vast ímprovement over the Bob Nardelli we pay next to minimum wages while we enslave you/fuck you business model.

In reply to by Too-Big-to-Bail (not verified)

kliguy38 (not verified) Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:26 Permalink

Don't worry.....super man Bezos (rhhoid pumped weenie) will save it.......BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Cognitive Dissonance Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:28 Permalink

"When historians look back at the current period in the stock market, one of the stocks that doubtless will define the era is Amazon (AMZN)." Will this be when they are re-writing 'history' to fit that era's narrative?

Zorba's idea Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:33 Permalink

Unless the millenials change their consumer habits, the day will come when Bezo's retail will become the only "company's" store standing. He'll likely garnish their digital wages until they cry to their CONgressman for help... LOL will be the reply :/

adr Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:34 Permalink

Trendlines aren't real. They are an imaginary consruct of the stock market con artist to justify the unwarranted increases in a ticker symbol. The belief in trendlines and fibonacci sequences has justified the relentless rise of stock market consruct regardless of the true underlying economic conditions. Can anyone tell me why oil went from $42 to $59 to $42 and back to $50 in two months? There were absolutely no real world fundamentals to cause that kind of price action. What you saw was price action based on algorithmic trading following pre programmed patterns chasing percentages of decline and increase. That is why you see so many V shaped recoveries in single days. The algos extrapolate a decline to a trendline and try to frontrun the rebound, thus causing the rebound instead of reacting to it. True real world economics does not move on a millisecond timetable. The DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq are probably 60 years ahead of the economy at this point. 

Anteater adr Tue, 08/01/2017 - 12:16 Permalink

Just the same with Black-Scholes algos, pre-2000 were on firechasing those Dot.Con trendlines, then clever quants started togame Black-Scholes trading, and the whole algo thing blew up.I was cashed out by 1999 and living overseas, but heard that alot of folks lost their 401ks, then in 2008 lost their home equity,but by careful investing in QEn, have almost restored their 401ksand their R/E value is back to more than they paid, ...if you ignorethe re-financing costs when they were upside down, and the hugeopportunity cost losses being in R/E, instead of QEn index funds.If someone were to crash the market now, while all the sheep arein the corral, why, the Khazars would own everything, n'cest pas?

In reply to by adr

ASimpleTrader Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:34 Permalink

All the Amazon employees are starting to cash out. Amazon pays their salaried positions rougly 1/3 of their salary in stock they can't touch for 2 years. That's a lot of stock out there in the market.  Some of those people can see the signs as well and are figuring its time to get my money now. 

Calculus99 Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:43 Permalink

Bozos getting a lot of gushing press over the last several months and that's usually the kiss of death. If I owned AMZN I'd would have already sold. 

two hoots Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:46 Permalink

Nations need big, big multi national corporations for hegemony along with war machine.   War machines alone no longer work, need the sanctions/other weapons.We could enter a fragmented market where overly high PE/drama purchased stocks get hammered and the stable, building real stuff, money making market stays afloat but slightly injured.   There seems to be an attempt to scare people out of markets????  

Consuelo Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:48 Permalink

  "When historians look back..." Ever had the opportunity to observe a well-trained Border Collie corral a huge flock of sheep...?  

Rebelrebel7 (not verified) Consuelo Tue, 08/01/2017 - 11:54 Permalink

Yeah! We've been scammed by the government, the media, the banks, the businesses, the education system, the military, the medical establishment, the churches, the mosques, and synagogue aren't appearing very innocent in many cases either !No reason to watch horror stories! We are living the nightmare on Main Street! Zombie apocalypse 2.0! The establishment anticipated that we would catch on ! We've gone to hell in  a handbasket!Keep the American dream alive, lie like hell is not a good plan!

In reply to by Consuelo

hooligan2009 Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:53 Permalink

breaking down with a 200 p/e ??? is an on-line mail order catalog and those don't take much of a share of retail.profits are in fedex and ups - sales (at losses) are in amzn - great model.if amazn can't automatically lock in consistent consumer demand for widgets and such, that nobody needs, and negotiate whopping discounts that redcue every cosnumer manufacturers profits, it is suck - same as the old mail order catalog business.anyone paying a thousand bucks a share for this pile of shit, that wil be out of business in 5 years, replaced by direct selling from suppliers/manufacturers to homes/offices/factories has rocks in their's my gift of the day to an entreprenur to really start a trillion dollar businessadd on website filters plus a website link direct to suppliers of the billion prices project makes amazon look like what it is - an online mail order catalog WITH ITS PREFERRED SUPPLIERS RATHER THAN ALL POSSIBLE SUPPLIERS AT ALL POSSIBLE VOLUMES AND PRICE POINTS.once you have made your tillion bucks, please remember me, i can only possibly spend 10 million in my lifetime and im not greedy:)have a nice day! 

khnum Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:53 Permalink

Well theres the 600 million dollar deal to build cloud computing for the CIA,the Washington post and other investments that tell me he is now part of the club which probably has the NSA frontrunning his share activity to protect against errant algos,I wouldnt bet against him at this point despite the spurious results offered by traditional analysis.

NDXTrader Tue, 08/01/2017 - 10:58 Permalink

Is it still priced in green pieces of paper that can be created on a whim? Can it still borrow money for nothing to fund endless ventures? Yep, it's going up

Anteater yogibear Tue, 08/01/2017 - 12:01 Permalink

I work under the flight path of the second largest cargo terminalfor Chinese air cargo imports. Last spring, March/April, heavieswere flying over about every five minutes. Must have been someiPhonesque frenzy. Since July 1st, from first flight before dawnuntil now halfway through the day, not a single overseas heavy!NOT ONE!! And UPS or FEDEX, you almost never see. I just gotmy office supplies from Chicago, by the USPS, in two days, forEXACTLY HALF OF WHAT AMAZON WANTED TO CHARGE ME.And what Amazon wanted to sell were reseller returns/rejects!Either Americans are poor shoppers, or AMZN is cooking books.

In reply to by yogibear