Jim Paulsen: "The Bull Market Could Continue Forever"

The stock market "has an awful good gig going," according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold, who appears capable of looking through the current collapse in 'hard' economic data, predicting a nirvana-like world ahead (sounding ominously like the "permanently high plateau" we've heard of before).


Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, Paulsen explained:

"We've got a fully employed economy, rising real wages. We restarted the corporate earnings cycle. We've got strong confidence among business and consumers."


"The kick is we can do all of this without aggravating inflation and interest rates."


"If that's going to continue, I think the bull market could continue to forever."

It seems 'real' macro data and the yield curve disagrees for now... but what do they know...

Paulsen goes on to hedge just a little...

"Ultimately the bull market does continue until we aggravate some inflation, and until we have to raise bond yields and interest rates some more."


"I think that's going to happen eventually, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen anytime soon. So I think the bull probably continues through the end of this year."

As a gentle reminder, we have heard this kind of 'everything is awesome' chatter from Mr. Paulsen before...

July 14, 2008

Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Fargo's primary investment unit, expects home prices to steady by year end, with the pace of foreclosures slackening shortly.


Most of the subprime debt at the center of the current crisis already has been written down by financial institutions, he notes, while many subprime borrowers who lost their homes are returning to rental units.


"Folks who compare this home-price cycle to the one that occurred in the early '80s obviously have short memories," Paulsen says.


"In the 1980s the economy was in a deep recession, mortgage rates were at 17% or more, and unemployment [was] hitting a post-Great Depression high of nearly 12%."

The bottom line, as we noted earlier, is stock market investors better hope that the bond market investors are wrong.. but then again if bond buyers are wrong and rates rise, as Greenspan warned, "that is very bad for asset prices at current equity market valuations."


J J Pettigrew spastic_colon Fri, 08/04/2017 - 10:05 Permalink

That's the game.....keeping inflation just below the ILLEGAL goal of 2%....that way they can keep rates too loose for too long, keep the market lubed up, and have consumer prices go up over 20% every decade (compounding).....and they will still say there isnt enough INFLATION...The Fed's mandate is STABLE PRICES..for them to promote inflation is VIOLATION of their mandate....but who is watching? No one.

In reply to by spastic_colon

Consuelo Haus-Targaryen Fri, 08/04/2017 - 10:18 Permalink

  GREAT catch there Haus.    'But we cannot guarantee purchasing power'...I mean, there it is in all its stark, naked glory - the Truth...!!!And I wonder what a $20 bill will purchase in the grocery story today, or on your insurance bill, or at the theatre, or anywhere else, compared to the date in which Mr. Greenspan made his remarks in 2005...?

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

drgizmo spastic_colon Fri, 08/04/2017 - 10:26 Permalink

I would simply say this ... if you disregard both logic and reason in our analysis... maybe ... if everyone is "insane" maybeeeee...which would make the "market"  also insane ...I would also say if the "market fails to use math /logic and reason... it can fail at any time for any "reason" and there is no way to predict it ... because we can NOT use... logic / history / math ... common sense or reason...how would we see it...now it is all emotional and "animal spirits " with out sanity there is no system.  The questions is... is a insane market imortal ...we will soon see...or not!

In reply to by spastic_colon

lilmac929 FreeShitter Fri, 08/04/2017 - 10:02 Permalink

Either...(1) people really are this stupid and have zero comprehension of emotional intelligence and their bias that blinds them from anything other than fairytale land because reality is too scaryor...(2)  people really aren't this stupid and they're just straight up liars and thieves I struggle to decide which one is worse

In reply to by FreeShitter

GreatUncle FreeShitter Fri, 08/04/2017 - 12:33 Permalink

They have always been doing CTRL-P since forever but in 2008 the size of the CTRL-P became to big to hide.His comments is a realisation and another truth "they can never hide it again".So at what point does the population lynch bankers on taxpayer bailouts of billions start getting hung?He is also right again they can do it until they can do it no more but that is kind of obvious.In this though the "no more" is when the bottom becomes so poor  through being deflated away and the violence that will definitley ensue.A little insight for him, as they are making it worse anyhow how long would it take if they stopped today to correct itself? The time it takes to restore the size of the real economy to support the level of debt ...That is no wars permitting likely a century or more and way to long.

In reply to by FreeShitter

Rebelrebel7 (not verified) Fri, 08/04/2017 - 09:31 Permalink

I had no idea that people get paid so much for LYING. That was hilarious! I feel sorry for his family. It must be completely embarrassing for them!

buzzsaw99 Fri, 08/04/2017 - 09:33 Permalink

he sounds like an effing retard.and until we have to raise bond yields and interest rates some more... wtf??you went full retard.  never go full retard.

buzzsaw99 Fri, 08/04/2017 - 09:38 Permalink

i know i don't have to explain to anyone here why that quote is idiotic six ways to sunday.  i could write a book on the idiocy of that small blurb alone.

Son of Captain Nemo Fri, 08/04/2017 - 09:43 Permalink

What a wonderful blend of oxycontin, Trintellix and "crack" does for the "thought processes" of the high end Hedge Fund investor!


Isn't Big Pharma swell?!!!

buzzsaw99 Fri, 08/04/2017 - 09:38 Permalink

i'll go ahead and list a couple just because i'm bored. 1) raising the fed fund rate does nothing.  even an imbecile can see that by now.2) we?  who the fuck is we?  and just how in the hell is "we" going to raise bond interest rates?

order66 Fri, 08/04/2017 - 09:37 Permalink

That's only true if people are willing to establish new positions at higher and higher valuations with diminishing future returns forever.