Only Employment Gains In The Past Year: Those With A High School Diploma Or Lower

In its latest, July, snapshot of the US economy, the NY Fed observed something startling, and which hasn't received much discussion in the media: when looking at the June report, over the past year the only employment gains have gone to less educated Americans, or as the NY Fed puts it, "over the last year, the employment-to-population ratio has risen for the less educated." It added that "for those with less than a high school degree and for high school graduates, the employment-to-population ratio rose by 0.4 percentage point and 0.9 percentage point, respectively.

Meanwhile, "the employment-to-population ratio for the more highly educated has been on a downward trend, with the ratio for those with a college degree 0.2% percentage point lower in June relative to a year ago."

Now that we have the July data we can update the NY Fed data, and find... more of the same: as the chart below shows, while on both a 1-month and 1-year basis, the Employment-to-Population ratio for workers with "some college" or "a bachelor's degree and higher" declined or remained flat again, the biggest increase on both a 1-month and 1-year basis was for those with "less than a high school diploma" or "high school" graduates.

In retrospect, this should not come as a surprise: in an economy where wage growth is "inexplicably" failing to materialize, in which waiters and bartenders were the hottest hiring sector last month and over the past 7 years, and where part-time workers soared in July, it makes sense that the best job prospects are for those who never went to college. As for the adverse structural consequences for the US economy as a result of lack of demand for those with a college education, that is self-explanatory and is a giant hint as to the unprecedented collapse in US economic productivity in recent years.


clade7 order66 Fri, 08/04/2017 - 12:44 Permalink

 Nonsense!  Now a days they are teaching 5th graders how to 'lip roll' a rubber over a banana!  Sure a College Grad has advanced skills and can take a zuchinni up the tailpipe, while jerking off two gerkins and sucking on a pepper. but really?  Advanced skills?  Thats introductory "Pat my head and rub my tummy" preschool 101 bullshit! How much money Net is there in that for an immediate and easy payback for a College degree?  Making money is all about 'on the street' economics!  Or for the co-signer folks to brag?    "My kid started out with greenbeans, and worked their way up to zuchinnis?"  All the while doing it for free to the Professors in after hour 'tutelage extra credit' sessions?  May as well drop out in the 4th grade and deliver papers or pick blueberries!!  Any old kid now a days can stuff a watermellon up they ass, or Lip roll a Hefty bag over a bale of hay... I saw  a highschool kid longcocking a trombone at bandcamp just this week!  Had a tuba sticking out his ass even!  Multitasking! Unless you like the thought of ramming your full grown zuchinni up somebody elses rectum, or having it performed upon yourself...then OK, sure, get a major in PoliSci or register for Law school....

In reply to by order66

918pigpen order66 Fri, 08/04/2017 - 12:13 Permalink

Bullshit!!  I know many people who make 100k plus a year without one and some didn't graduate high school.I myself was in that 100+ until I retired.On the other hand I know a few people who have Masters Degrees and one Friend just got her Doctorate and they have yet to make 100kToday's college education ain't a good investment!!Unless you are going into a specialized field that requires higher learning.A fucking Degree don't make you successful.  We make ourselves successfulAnd a few of my friends are worth millions with only a High School Diploma.

In reply to by order66

Kidbuck Shizzmoney Fri, 08/04/2017 - 12:03 Permalink

If a student takes enough difficult courses he can improve his mind and himself immeasurably. Only that student can judge what self improvement is worth. For centuries college was never meant to be job training.

On the other hand, anything, such as student loans and research funding, that the government takes an active role in gets fucked up beyond all measure.

In reply to by Shizzmoney

dark pools of soros Fri, 08/04/2017 - 10:30 Permalink

Another misleading chart/article on neo-ZH

obviously summer jobs switched to paying high school grads instead of college grads that cashed in their FANG stocks and went on vacations

Silver Savior Fri, 08/04/2017 - 10:33 Permalink

Well yeah it makes sense because employers are so cheap they have to stretch those dollars anywhere they can. I think they are starting to figure out that lowering their education standards is ok it will get them by. What are these degrees anyway? It's just a more in-depth set up. But do people really need this to perform jobs in the real world? Often times no. What good is algebra aside from a few select applications. I don't go out in real life and have algebra problems to solve. Like never! The only thing that even comes close is process of elimination.I don't see where the value from a degree comes from. These people with degrees work in retail with me and a lot of them are complete morons. 

insanelysane Fri, 08/04/2017 - 10:43 Permalink

So I ask you, Is it better mentally for a person toScrew off in high school, barely get a diploma or GED, and then end up working as waitstaff?Go to high school, get diploma, go to college, get diploma, and then end up working as waitstaff?

Rebelrebel7 (not verified) insanelysane Fri, 08/04/2017 - 10:56 Permalink

Not going through the system is better. Less brainwashing and propaganda. If I had school age children now, there is absolutely NO way that I would subject them to the fascis,t demented, education system in our country!It's taken decades to deprogram myself from all of the bullshit!

In reply to by insanelysane

Rebelrebel7 (not verified) Mimir Fri, 08/04/2017 - 11:20 Permalink

The education system is bullshit! The proof is in the pudding! The more "educated" our society has become, the more impoverished, incompetent, less civilized, and fascist it has become. Nevermind reality of teachers insisting that children be placed on dangerous medication PROVEN not to work or be removed from their families! They can't even claim that increased time in school results in increased knowledge! Look at what has happened to general knowledge and critical thinking with the increased school time!It's all about control and humiliation!

In reply to by Mimir

Rebelrebel7 (not verified) Fri, 08/04/2017 - 10:44 Permalink

Is the giant hint that the entire economy would collapse if the truth of what is actually taking place were suddenly revealed to the public? Carneigi Mellon university and a California university are listed as defense contractors receiving DoD subsidies! How many other universities are? 190,000 corporations receive them, including telecoms, media, and tech! $323 billion in contracts are dispersed to the 190,000 corporations!

Silver Savior Fri, 08/04/2017 - 10:53 Permalink

I love it when employers say one is overqualified.  But what if I wanted to work below my capacity and at a little lower rate? Less is more. Why would I put myself in say a management position in retail when I value my Heath and the stress would be taxing or deadly? I am 13 years into retail and I don't want management positions but I can't do a variety of jobs in retail because I get rejected. I suppose I could somehow try for senior management and put my feet up on a desk and tell everyone to fuck off and leave me alone like they do. I would feel kind of bad for being a dick but it will be ok. I will use my inflated pay to buy more silver bars and stare at them.

Stormtrooper Fri, 08/04/2017 - 10:52 Permalink

Guess I better scratch that engineering degree and MBA off of my resume and list my former positions as ditch digger to have a better chance at finding a job.

Silver Savior Fri, 08/04/2017 - 11:02 Permalink

What do people do with all that money if they did get a good paying job say 100k plus? Use it to pay debt and buy cheap shit and throw it in a storage unit which you pay on too? Buy a house 10 times too big and pay enough property taxes to make the gov blush? Buy a $70k car and have it be worth 5k? I mean I don't get it. 

Silver Savior Fri, 08/04/2017 - 11:10 Permalink

You have to respect bartenders though. From my  semi cloudy observations late at night I see they have a shitty job. I mean how do they put up with all these jackasses all night and keep a smile on their face? Like what if they get the dumbass drunk they don't want to talk to but he sits at the bar all night? That would be a major pain in the ass. Bartending is the most skilled labor. They should be paid 100k starting and tips!

Bemused Observer Fri, 08/04/2017 - 11:22 Permalink

If I owned a business, I'd seriously think about recruiting employees while they're in high school, maybe start up a job fair thing at the school so I could get a good look at them, see which ones looked most promising. Then lure them before they've been completely poisoned by higher education.I'd pay them decent, and give them the chance to avoid the whole college-debt trap by 'passing Go' and coming straight to work for me and learning some USEFUL skills for FREE, as part of the on-the-job training. Several years of work experience, and a reference from me would be far more valuable in the future than a degree in Feminist Studies that cost you 60 thousand dollars. If you have some basic carpentry, plumbing or electrical skills, you can bypass that whole "You want fries with that?", 7 dollar an hour soul-sucking ordeal, and make some real coin doing local handyman jobs on your own schedule. Off the books, if you wish. And don't can ALWAYS go back to school if you really, really want to. The schools will be there, and there are no age limits. It's not as if these kids HAVE to go RIGHT NOW, straight outta high school.We need to start actively discouraging kids to go right into college from high school...they ought to have a several-years buffer, spent out in the world, working at some starter job, or even just bumming around, before they are allowed to enroll. This will make them far less susceptible to these colleges and their sales pitches. They will have had the chance to see for themselves that there are NO JOBS for Feminist Studies majors out there. Right now, these kids are coming out of an over-protected parental environment and going straight into another over-protected environment. They are clueless about how the world actually functions, so of course they are going to make awful choices in the courses they take, and the 'careers' they seek.I guarnatee you, there would be a significant difference in the types of courses enrolled in by our little hot-house flowers, and the kinds of courses that students with some life experience would invest their hard-earned money in. A real big difference. But it is much, much easier to oversell to that first group, which is why those colleges want them young and naive.