David Stockman Warns Trump "The Swamp Is Undrainable"

Authored by David Stockman via The Daily Reckoning,

Approximately two months before the election on September 10th I locked down the final draft of my book, Trumped!

In the opening sentence I ventured the following opinion, which was most certainly not in the mainstream at the time:

FIRST THERE WERE 17. THEN LITTLE MARCO, LOW ENERGY JEB AND LYIN’ Ted were gone. At length, there was one. And now there is even a chance he may become President.

That he did, and contrary to all expectations, too. But now there is an excellent chance that Mike Pence will become the 46th occupant of that office.

This time the pundits do see it coming. That’s because they are complicit — functioning as self-appointed magistrates of a recount of the 2016 election.

Indeed, the mainstream media is no longer even in the news business. It’s conducting a grand witch hunt and venomous prosecution that will not be sated until the Donald vacates the Oval Office — one way or another, probably by a threatened invocation of the 25th Amendment by the GOP elders on Capitol Hill.

Yes, it sounds a tad far fetched. But the key to what comes next is hiding in plain sight.

The Donald is exceedingly vulnerable because he is an insurgent outsider who will eventually end up alone in the Swamp in helpless isolation.

Trump’s impetuous tweeting is a case in point. Take a recent tweet about Germany, for example. It was essentially on point, but amounted to waving a red cape in the face of the already enraged establishment bull:

We have a MASSIVE trade deficit with Germany, plus they pay FAR LESS than they should on NATO & military. Very bad for U.S. This will change.

Of course, the establishment’s concerns have less to do with peace and security than raising sales, earnings and stock prices in the Atlantic-area’s military industrial complex.

And the establishment won’t abide any threat to its power.

In this vein, the Donald is also pulling America out of the Paris Climate Accords, an establishment totem.

“Climate denialism” is about as offensive to establishment sensibilities as is “creationism.” So the shrieks of outraged disbelief reached ear-splitting decibels after Trump’s announcement.

I’m glad the Donald takes on the greatest “environmental hoax” of the modern era — even if it does accelerate his downfall.

That’s because it is based on an expansion of government that knows no limits — including the deliberate and systematic distortion of climate data to fit a weak theory that defies common sense and the known facts of the planet’s history.

In any event, the Donald’s jail break from the Paris Accords has further isolated him in the Imperial City — even if it does win him plaudits in the Rust Belt.

What will be the trigger that finally sends the establishment after Trump?

Ultimately, the hammer of fiscal crisis and a crashing stock market will break any remaining loyalty of the GOP elders as they smell the 2018 elections turning into a replay of the rout of 1974.

And then the Donald will be gone, and well before August 2018, too. I told an audience in Vancouver last Friday that it could happen by February.

The bottom line is that the Swamp is so undrainable that it will end up making mincemeat of Donald Trump.

Needless to say, the ultimate causes of his demise are anchored deep in the failing status quo.

America is so addicted to war, debt and central bank driven false prosperity that even the most resourceful and focused challenger would be taken down by its sheer inertia.

But the Donald is so undisciplined, naïve, out-of-touch, thin-skinned, unfocused and megalomaniacal that he is making it far easier for the Swamp critters than they deserve. To a very considerable extent, in fact, he is filling out his own bill of indictment.

Moreover, he is totally clueless about how to manage his presidency or cope with the circling long knives of the Deep State which are hell bent on removing him from office.

Accordingly, the single most important thing to know about the present risk environment is that it is extreme and unprecedented.

In essence, the Donald is the ultimate bull in an exceedingly fragile China shop — and an already badly wounded one at that.

So it is no understatement to suggest that the S&P 500 at 2470 and the Dow at 22,000 is about as fragile as the “market” has ever been.

And Amazon, poster boy for Bubble Finance, is trading around 190 times earnings.

Any untoward pinprick could send it into a tailspin — meaning that the coming political bleeding-out of the Donald amounts to a 50,000 pound pin.

It’s the mighty Orange Swan that will lay the casino low like never before.

The utter fragility of the latest and greatest Fed bubble could not be better proxied than in this astounding fact…

During the last 6,000 trading days (since the early 1990s), the VIX Index closed below 10 on 26 occasions or just 0.4% of the time. No less than 16 out of those 26 ‘below-10’ closes occurred in the last three months!

Stated differently, in just the last 0.6% of the trading days since 1997, over 65% of the ultra-low VIX readings have occurred.

That’s complacency begging to be monkey-hammered.

That was surely true in late 1999 and early 2000 when the NASDAQ 100 rose by 30% in three months — just as has been recently when the FAAAM Five (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft) gained 33% or $600 billion since the turn of the year.

But this time is actually different in a special sense.

We are now at the inflection points not just of the post-crisis bubble engineered by the Bernanke-Yellen Fed and their fellow-traveling central bankers around the world, but the inflection point for the whole multi-decade enterprise of monetary central planning.

At the heart of the matter is that the Washington-Wall Street establishment rests on a bipartisan political foundation that has no use for existential threats to their continued rule, respectively.

So the Deep State’s prosecution of Trump’s incumbency under the RussiaGate file is continuing apace, while a calamitous debt ceiling crisis is now less than two months away according to his own Treasury Secretary.

The debt-ceiling crisis will cause a thunderous panic among the clueless gamblers on Wall Street. And the resulting 40% plunge in the stock market will pave the way for the Donald’s eventual demise.

At that point the Donald will truly be friendless. For comparison’s sake, consider the fate of Richard Nixon.

Notwithstanding three decades of network building and the accumulation of vast IOUs from his relentless politicking and campaigning, the GOP establishment sent Nixon packing in August 1974 when the party’s demise stood just around the corner.

By contrast, the Donald has no GOP network, friends, IOUs or even history. A mere twelve years ago he was cavorting with the Clinton’s at Chelsea’s wedding.

When the S&P 500 drops below 1,500 there will be panic in the GOP precincts all around Capitol Hill. Then I expect Trump to be escorted to the South Lawn for his final trip aboard the Richard Nixon memorial helicopter.

What is different this time, however, is that America is in no shape to weather the ensuing storm.


chunga order66 Sat, 08/05/2017 - 18:12 Permalink

The jury is still out as far as I'm concerned. Stockman is right, the "establishment" hates this guy, and tens of millions of normal people hate the "establishment", so he has that going for him.If he is legit, the only way he's going to survive is to go full throttle anti-establishment and literally call for marches on the DC swamp. If he is legit he should leave DC and never go back, it's an awful, terrible place filled with evil and depravity.

In reply to by order66

Schlump (not verified) Blue Balls (not verified) Sat, 08/05/2017 - 18:39 Permalink

I hired a lot of Goldman guys just to prove that the swamp is undrainable. I made the swamp bigger. Sad.


"But to say to US voters, 'I am going to protect your jobs, I'm going to protect social security, I'm going to protect your healthcare, I'm going to stand up for the little guy, I'm going to drain the swamp - and then bring in half your cabinet from Goldman Sachs? And pass – or try to pass – the most aggressive pro-corporate legislation that the US has ever seen? I'm comfortable calling that a corporate coup."

— Naomi Klein

In reply to by Blue Balls (not verified)

Manthong FreddieX Sun, 08/06/2017 - 04:35 Permalink

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GHFC   David seems to be a bit over the top again….. Trump did not get where he is today  by allowing schmucks to take him down.

In reply to by FreddieX

TahoeBilly2012 Manthong Sun, 08/06/2017 - 10:59 Permalink

Trump calls an armed march or nothing changes. The Country needs to see it's armed productive class standup or forever fall prey to the Deep State and it's hordes of Government loving lackies/progressives. Imagine how much Government loving progressives will love Government and media all over again if Trump is impeached. These idiots have no problem with war, debt, media lies and the Deep State, they are convinced it all serves them....

In reply to by Manthong

deepfriedbrain Dsyno Sun, 08/06/2017 - 01:14 Permalink

My thought is to gv the swamp critters some lead poisoning and make them take the room temp challenge.I'd suggest that they start with (incl the staff) of CoC, Mccain, lindsey, sasse, rubio, cruz, ryan, mcconnell, bloomberg...of course bill, hillary, the entire white house press corp from 2014-2015 & basically anyone who went to the never trump meeting on jekyll island in 2015. all donors need to feel like moving to new zealand.That should about do itTrump has at least 1.5 Million Americans who will fight for him....most were trained via decades of military adventurism plus 30 million who will support the cause. 

In reply to by Dsyno

Winston Churchill chunga Sat, 08/05/2017 - 18:26 Permalink

Just read Catherine Austin Fitts and her experience when asking her Red Button question.The whole country is the swamp judging by the responses she got.The corruption is now top to bottom,truly exceptional, and nobody is willing to suffer the immense pain required to root it out.Just human nature and nobody is going to change that.Nobody.It will change, just not voluntarily, and from the outside..

In reply to by chunga

Lynn Trainor chunga Sat, 08/05/2017 - 19:07 Permalink

Amazing that the Founding Fathers saw it all coming. Been Franklin wrote, “When the people find that they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic.”   “… can only end in despotism … when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic government, being incapable of any other.” And Thomas Jefferson:  “Besides, the spirit of the times may alter, will alter. Our rulers will become corrupt, our people careless. A single zealot may commence persecution, and better men be his victims. It can never be too often repeated, that the time for fixing every essential right on a legal basis is while our rulers are honest, and ourselves united. From the conclusion of this war we shall be going downhill. It will not then be necessary to resort every moment to the people for support. They will be forgotten therefore, and their rights disregarded. They will forget themselves, but in the sole faculty of making money, and will never think of uniting to effect a due respect for their rights. The shackles, therefore, which shall not be knocked off at the conclusion of this war, will remain on us long, will be made heavier and heavier, till our rights shall revive or expire in a convulsion.”* *Adrienne Koch and William Peden, The Life and Selected Writings of Thomas Jefferson, Notes on Virginia, Query XVII (New York NY: Random House, Inc.) 1944. P. 277. 

In reply to by chunga

Gardentoolnumber5 Lynn Trainor Sat, 08/05/2017 - 20:49 Permalink

TJ also wrote - "Though written constitutions may be violated in moments of passion or delusion, yet they furnish a text to which those who are watchful may again rally and recall the people. They fix, too, for the people the principles of their political creed." --Thomas Jefferson to Joseph Priestley, 1802.If we ever need to rally and recall the people it is now to the original document as written by these enlightened men.

In reply to by Lynn Trainor

HRH Feant2 (not verified) Lynn Trainor Sat, 08/05/2017 - 21:05 Permalink

Their prescience is amazing. Their understanding of human nature and history enabled them to predict possible outcomes.

When are HIlliary, Huma, Brenner, Rice, Lynch, Powers and Comey going to be indicted for sedition and breaking the law for profit and power? People want to see politicians and bankers arrested for breaking the law. The people in charge of Wells Fargo ought to be prosecuted for fraud and punished by being fined and spending time in prison. If these people are not prosecuted that shows one thing. That there is a two-tiered justice system, one for them and another one for everyone else.

In reply to by Lynn Trainor

HardAssets Winston Churchill Sat, 08/05/2017 - 22:41 Permalink

Fitts is right. It's a corrupted nation from bottom levels to the top. It includes government workers at all levels - teachers, police, military, etc. Pensioners (both military & civilian). Government contractors and those getting government checks. Many of these are people who don't understand the true condition of the nation, because their paychecks depend on them not understanding that.

Real change will only come from outside the nation. Probably from a calamity. The consequences of that are completely unpredictable.

In reply to by Winston Churchill

Give Me Some Truth chunga Sat, 08/05/2017 - 21:01 Permalink

 The sad thing is that Trump actually could have drained the swamp. The people would have supported him. It would be quite easy to expose them for the liars and psyschpaths they are. No one with all the powers and popularity of a President Trump has ever gone after them. The irony is that him doing this might have been the only thing that saved his presidency, or at least let him make it four years. Anyway, he never even tried. Goldman Sachs is making all the big calls. Never once has he tweeted, "Audit the Fed." 

In reply to by chunga

chunga Give Me Some Truth Sat, 08/05/2017 - 21:46 Permalink

It's not over yet but it's close. I remain extremely cynical but I am hoping he's learned some lessons. It looks to me like he's trying to cooperate with the swamp, and that just doesn't work. The hiring of Pence and Sessions were olive branches that wound up as huge mistakes he can't repeat, along with keeping on all these "holdovers".If he doesn't get rid of them soon they will get rid of him. 

In reply to by Give Me Some Truth

HardAssets chunga Sat, 08/05/2017 - 22:18 Permalink

Trumps greatest resource was all those voters who were sick & tired of the corruption & getting screwed over by D.C. and Wall St. He gave an encouraging inaugural speech, but it's been downhill since. - - He could have given speeches on t.v. directed to his supporters. He could have urged them to call their 'representatives' in Congress demanding they help advance Trump's promised agenda, or expect to receive no votes & be removed from office. He could have stirred the people to launch massive marches to push this.
Trump has done none of this. His tweeting is silly. We hoped that his vague promises would be fleshed out with plans of substance but he's done none of that.

Who knows if this was the plan all along, or if Trump just stumbled into it. Who knows if someone sat him down and gave him a little talk about 'the way it's gonna be'. Many of us suspect that there will Never be a solution that comes outta D.C. That place is corrupt beyond repair.

In reply to by chunga

StarGate chunga Sun, 08/06/2017 - 14:48 Permalink

Stockman appears short sighted with predictable analysis anyone could come up with and the current status quo - Trump as Prez - was not predicted.

More likely Trump knew it was a long shot he would win against the rigged system and knew he could be arkanicided (and still could be at anytime). So he risked his life to get the job and continues to do so to keep it.

Trump knows he is battling against 70 years of deep state political control, against the fascist economic control of the privateers "fed" reserve debt engineers stealing America's wealth and at 70 years old that he lives on borrowed time. So his goal seems to be to clean up as much of the mess as he can, as fast as he can.
Evidence is he is doing just that - attempting to out race the Deep State's Mueller entrapment machine and the 25th amendment 'crazy man cuz he tweets' plot.

Goals being Met:
1) Block invasion of USA borders by Jihadist thugs and cartel drug dealers.
2) Stop the drugging of America's youth
3) Strengthen military and police with infusion of natl pride so that the people are protected from within.
4) Stop the New World Order plot to evaporate all govts thru control exerted secretly by TPP and Paris Discord (pretending to be about green planet)
5) End the CIA funded war against Syria
6) Remove stupid rules preventing businesses from succeeding and thus creating more jobs
7) Stop the draining of American industry as sent to China and Mexico by Prez Clinton, Bush and Obama
8) Revise USA energy independence so USA does not have to grovel to Saudi Arabia or invade innocent oil rich countries like Iraq thereby making the Muslim world mad at USA

Etc. Etc.

The Man is doing the best he can with ALL the cards stacked against him. Pretty good for a 70 yr old rich guy whocould have forgotten about America and spent his golden years golfing and partying with his pretty wife.

In reply to by chunga

BullyBearish order66 Sat, 08/05/2017 - 18:15 Permalink

trumpanyahoo's the wrong guy...a true zionist/deep statist lying sack of $hit...ignore the "attacks" against him...it's to keep you busy while he is busy...further destroying America for his masters...don't be fooled...this has NOTHING to do with cliton, obomber, boosh...it has EVERYTHING to do with their employers... ...what would michael corleone do?

In reply to by order66

DjangoCat order66 Sat, 08/05/2017 - 18:41 Permalink

Trump won because he is the only one who called out the crime infested swamp running the richest country in the world.  They hate him something fierce for that.Whether or not he is able to drain the swamp, he has raised the issue of the swamp, and that issue will continue to erode public confidence in all forms of government in the US, including the FED and the currency.This genie cannot easily be put back in the lamp.

In reply to by order66

BullionBlast tbd108 Sun, 08/06/2017 - 01:58 Permalink

Reading all of the above comments, I find myself agreeing with many, and oddly thinking about President Reagan. He too was an 'outsider' in a way because of his charisma and easy rapport with the public. The PTB were scared that he would undermine their agenda. Remember how his early mantra was about less Federal Government? Well, they damn near took him out in his first year. As it was Nancy Reagan and Schultz ran the Cabinet for the remaining 3 years. And Reagan was completely neutered for his 2nd term. Delegated most of his duties to the wrong people and took lots of naps. He'd sign anything that was put in front of him. I always think that he woud have been a much better President if he had somehow been able to follow his true instincts.Fast forward to today. What a 'witches brew' of problems without solutions. I agree that the US dollar is on it's last legs and will be replaced domestically after the market crash. If people think the Deep State is devious now, just wait until they turn against the American public during a national crisis. I honestly think the only way forward will be a civil war of regular people against the Gov't. Some State and municipal law enforcement agencies will likely turn against the Deep State along with some State and National Guard units. Even then no matter which side 'wins' the US will not recover it's old position of world leader and reserve currency nation. The Deep State thinks they have it all figured out right down to the 800 FEMA camps but it's going to be a real shootout. No easy answers and way too many problems. 

In reply to by tbd108

ActNOWNo2Islam tbd108 Sun, 08/06/2017 - 13:43 Permalink

Well the WHITE GENOCIDE is well and truly underway, thanks to the InfilTRAITORS most Western countrys leaders have become...to replaced apparently with Islam which itself is a form of glorius war and genocide, for some paradoxically, coupled with rabbit like demographics...but Totalitarianism, the preferred method of Governance of the NWO

In reply to by tbd108

Mr T Sat, 08/05/2017 - 18:03 Permalink

Disclaimer if you have seen this great, I ain't no britbob or slackjack this is only good till mon. tues latest, no like, downvote and move along. Please apply this to you nearest "representative of Your Will.Hello fellow zh Americans ,(Hello World I got nothing against you)I would like to suggest something that perhaps, maybe the slightest chance for a blip in the matrix this is for as many of us that Will, we make our own FOIA REQUESTS to see and read every card, letter, email, voicemail, cocktail napkins anything that they used to represent the Will of the American People. This would also apply to the shitty bds israelbill.Senate critters are still in session. I for one would like to know this Will.I will be repeating this for a day or two. We really have a right to know

Mr T Sat, 08/05/2017 - 18:07 Permalink

Perhaps President Trump is CALLING US OUT99%Our Representatives spitting in our Presidents face? Maybe?Whatever it is fucked up, and maybe you gots to Do something?!