The Market Has Never Done This Before

A fascinating statistic about the current no-vol state of the market, courtesy of Deutsche's Jim Reid, who points out that the last time we had 13 consecutive days in which the S&P moved less than 0.3% in either direction was... never:

... all you really need to know about markets at the moment is that yesterday's move in the S&P 500 (+0.16%) added to the record daily run of less than 0.3% moves in either direction. It’s now 13 days since we had a larger move using daily data back to 1927. The second longest streak of this length was of 10 days which has happened twice in history. The most recent time was in England's solitary football World Cup winning year (06 Jan 1966 - 19 Jan 1966), and the other between 15 Nov 1961 and 29 Nov 1961. So these continue to be remarkable financial times we are living through.


Another way of showing the above is with the S&P's closing prints over the same period: 2474, 2473, 2473, 2470, 2477, 2478, 2475, 2472, 2470, 2476, 2478, 2472, 2477, 2481

And here is some more from Reid:

To put the steady but relentless rally in the S&P in context, it is now 73 trading days since the S&P increased by more than 1% in any one day. Give it another 7 days and we will beat the prior record set back in November 06 and March 07. Although, given the current lull in the activity (VIX now back to below 10), we might even get close to the 100 day record set back in mid-July 1995 to early Dec 1995.

Finally, this from BofA:

Earlier this year, the Dow recorded its lowest one-month trading range since 1900, and last summer the S&P traded within a 1.77% range for 42 consecutive days, the tightest such streak in history (the lull was ultimately broken on 9-Sep-16, when the S&P 500 dropped 2.45% on ECB policy, North Korea, and a fear of higher rates in the US).

This is just another piece of evidence for Canaccord's thesis that traders are not complacent, they are simply "paralyzed."


PT PT Tue, 08/08/2017 - 09:18 Permalink

Ummmm, hmmm ... Buy The Fucking Permanently High Plateau??? ... no, that doesn't sound right, and yet ... time does dodgy things to memories ...  ... like equating a VIX plateau with a stock plateau ...

In reply to by PT

nope-1004 Mementoil Tue, 08/08/2017 - 10:08 Permalink

Clearly a Ponzi, controlled by .gov.Believers in this POS of a free market are dumb, lack self esteem, and are easily swayed.  This bullshit of a "market" is nothing more than an economic policy by .gov, manipulated to show strength and resilience, when in reality it is a garbage dump of toxic debt and insolvency.Can't wait for the day that this lie is finally exposed and expelled as the trash heap that it is. 

In reply to by Mementoil

Iskiab nope-1004 Tue, 08/08/2017 - 13:39 Permalink

Someone should run an analysis, comparing intraday volatility and price fluctuations compared to end of day sticker. See what the probability is that this would happen without manipulation. Also compare grouping of stocks price fluctuations compared to the overall index.

I'd do it... but I'm lazy and don't care enough. Reverse engineering the algorithm would be worthwhile, but with such low volatility you'd have to be leveraged up the ying yang to make any money.

In reply to by nope-1004

HRClinton SloMoe Tue, 08/08/2017 - 11:27 Permalink

Those old enough to remember and who paid attention, when Dubya became President, the summer of 2001 looked pretty lame in the Markets. Growth was declining, etc.What the economy needed then, was a good war. It got it with 9/11.The situation and mood seems similar now. Except that it will be a far bigger war, to cover the criminal tracks of the Fed's perpetual Ponzi since 2000. Yes, their Ponzi started years earlier (1971?), but not on the grand larceny scale that we've seen since 2001.

In reply to by SloMoe

PT RagaMuffin Tue, 08/08/2017 - 09:15 Permalink

VIX, volatility ... Isn't VIX a standard deviation or calculated from one?  And standard deviation is the square root of a variance?  Been a long time since I did that stuff.Point being, it would absolutely make sense if the variance went negative.  Because then we'd have confirmation that the VIX was imaginary. ... what about stock valuations?  Do they also involve the square root of a negative somewhere?

In reply to by RagaMuffin

MK13 RagaMuffin Tue, 08/08/2017 - 09:27 Permalink

If you understand VIX mathematically, there is no negative VIX. In fact it's nearly impossible for VIX to approach 5 - and the closer it gets the more likely blow up is.

Recently we had a 1% spy correction generate a 30% UVXY spike with VIX around 9 - algos were running out buying and exponentially cascading volatility. A 3% correction at VIX 9 would bust out almost all VIX ETPs - and that would be a brace new trading world. Since we have exchange circuit breakers and can't have equity Black Fridays, why not VIX flash crash?

In reply to by RagaMuffin

eclectic syncretist MK13 Tue, 08/08/2017 - 11:23 Permalink

It's the lack of volume that must be really costing the banksters though. For instance, yesterdays SPY volume was the lowest in at least a year, even if you include the holidays shortened trading days when the exchanges closed early.When the banksters have a problem, we all have a problem, in our "Koyaanisqatsi" world run by them and their counterfiat. One has to wonder why they are willing to take these losses, and if the alternatives aren't worse for them.

In reply to by MK13

HRClinton RagaMuffin Tue, 08/08/2017 - 11:45 Permalink

When all money and financial products are digital, ANYTHING is possible in (((their))) world of complex math and complex (((conplex))) numbers.Libertarians continue to be blue-eyed Goy Scouts, when it comes to Money, Finance and Markets. That's because your moral upbringing tends to make you see what you want to see: Christian ethics from non-Christian people. Schmucks!Almost everything has been decoupled from financial and economic reality (in the classic sense). PM got decoupled at its peak in 2011, and has been grossly manipulated since then. Until there is a recoupling to reality, PM and other manipulated assets and financial products are pure speculation, a sham and a scam. ZH charts (which I've seen some call Porn Charts) are virtually meaningless for investment in these circumstances.No wonder so many seek refuge in  the decentralized liquidity of Cash and Crypto-currencies, or in rent-seeking real assets.

In reply to by RagaMuffin

White Knight Tue, 08/08/2017 - 08:42 Permalink

* Shania Twayne plays*UP, UP, UP,It can only go up from here! LOL to infinity and beyond! Every time I see an article stating that stocks will dive, that Shania Twayne song plays in my head.

spastic_colon Tue, 08/08/2017 - 08:44 Permalink

so..........the "market" has done a lot of things over the past 10 years that its never done before.........its easy when you do not own anything and let the worlds bank own YOU "...........added to the record daily run of less than 0.3% moves in either direction.........." 0.3% ? why not 0.28999999% ? maybe its been even longer lol

goldoverbtc Tue, 08/08/2017 - 08:42 Permalink

This market has done a number of things that have never been done before.  It is either being manipulated or investors are just very com lacent enough to wait and see what the monetary and fiscal policies are going to be moving 

Albertarocks LawsofPhysics Tue, 08/08/2017 - 09:32 Permalink

Cryptos are not fiat.  Fiat is fake money "issued by a country" and controlled by central bankers who have the power to expand it's quantities 10 fold, 100 fold via the black magic of fractional reserve banking.  True, Bitcoin is not a piece of gold that you can hold in your hand, but it is certainly not fiat.  It is truly a new form of "real money" (even though you can't hold it in your hand) ... as opposed to "currency".  Gold is money.  Bitcoin is money.  Dollars are fiat.I am not promoting BTC with my comments, just stating what I think should be obvious.  I trust gold more than I do BTC for the simple reason that I prefer to have my "money" in my hand so to speak.  For me personally, even though I have a very small amount of BTC, I don't trust it as far as I can throw it because I could easily see myself just losing it due to some dumb mistake on my own part.  It seems that there are about 4 million different types of wallets that a person could use, and because of that I don't know which of them, if any, are dependable enough to trust.

In reply to by LawsofPhysics