One Trader Scoffs "Finally, A Market Where It's Easy To Get Rich"

Sometimes you have to just throw in the towel, know when to fold 'em, and join 'em coz you can't beat 'em.. and that appears to be former fund manager Richard Breslow's take on the current utter apathy in markets currently. His message is clear - nothing matters except technical levels - which ironically, none other than CNBC's-own Jim Cramer admitted this morning "the market is completely divorced from whatever is going on," whioch presumably means "buy it all."

Via Bloomberg,

That which does not kill us, makes us stronger. A much debated concept, but in terms of navigating markets, there’s a lot of truth in it. Asset prices have been all over the map during the last week. Good news mixing with ugly news. Well-laid plans having to consider great uncertainty.

But one positive outcome is we have technical levels, and close ones, for just about every stripe of security class to lean on and whatever your directional inclination.

We’re not good at pricing geo-political events, hence the student body type moves to the headlines. Jackson Hole and the September central bank meetings seem to be swiftly becoming known knowns, so not a lot of help with what to do now. But there’s no reason to throw your hands up in despair. There are plenty of trades to do with limited downside risk but the potential to morph into something good.

 

The dollar comes out of this looking pretty good. Whether you look at it against the dollar index or the Bloomberg dollar index, it is definitely attempting to put in a bottom and see if it can push higher. It’s retaken its shorter-term moving averages and, more importantly, the levels it cratered from last week. On the DXY, you can risk half of one-percent to get two-percent of potential upside at 96 or play a break below 93.50 for a re-test of August lows.

 

 

Interestingly, and I’d say, unexpectedly, given recent trends, the euro itself looks decidedly so-so. Could be a position reduction. Maybe a reality check on ECB hawkishness. Versus the yen, below 130.5 is a potential problem, but hardly far away. We were close to getting back above it this morning. EUR/CHF has a beautiful pivot at 1.14 and we’ve been playing with that level all day. It’s still doing well against sterling, but one-percent lower and those calls for parity will seem like wishful thinking. But as frothy as it looked cruising through 1.18 to the dollar, it will look appalling below 1.16. It’s not surprising that we currently sit at 1.17. Although, I would point out that forays below 1.17 have been short-lived.

 

The S&P 500 has identified a 2440, 2470 pair of pivots. No reason to sit out 5 percent corrections and such. I’ve no particular bias, but would point out that it seems to get tradable follow-through when it crosses back and forth through its 21-day moving average.

 

 

For a real shocker, Treasury yields are trying to convincingly reject that panic dive below 2.2%. Back below would look horrific, but the risk is no more than 10 basis points. On the other hand, they need to clear the top put in before Chair Yellen’s July 12 testimony to break free of this demoralizing range.

 

 

Gold made a triple top on Friday, matching peaks from April and June. So far, despite any news, $1300 has proven to be a bridge too far. But if you want to play for it you can get a cheap look with a $10 stop from current levels. Below $1250 you can get a potential look at the July lows.

 

 

Oh, I almost forgot. West Texas crude broke below channel support at $48 this past Monday. If you want to be really parsimonious, play with that pivot.

 

Breslow concludes optimistically "so many opportunities and plenty of time to see what can be done with them... finally a market where it's easy to get rich."

Comments

nope-1004 UndergroundPost Wed, 08/16/2017 - 10:27 Permalink

about 8 years late I agree, but would actually extend that to post 9-11.  In early 2003, trends and data sets started appearing that were clearly not normal.  This has been a totally manipulated market for many years, the intensity of manipulation increasing post 2008 due to the entire thing facing insolvency and being a few months away from complete bankruptcy.  Normalcy is gone.  Manipulation is the way.  Failure cannot and will not be allowed to occur, especially in the banking sector.Real life markets are a thing of the past.  Any 'trader' under 40 has no clue about correlations or trends.

In reply to by UndergroundPost

Crazy Or Not nope-1004 Wed, 08/16/2017 - 10:48 Permalink

I don't think the Tylers read the comments anymore, or else they'd know they're preaching to the wrong audience.Gold's too small a (physical) market not to be easily price manipulated.Buffet / Berklay Hathaway called S&P market trend back in 2008 [ http://longbets.org/362/ ] The rest of us chew popcorn waiting for the bust.... (which was probably set in stone a few days before Buffet placed his bet).Tylers - post something we don't know....it's getting boring here.

In reply to by nope-1004

mccvilb Crazy Or Not Wed, 08/16/2017 - 11:25 Permalink

"The Markets" have never ever been markets and yet Tyler continues to perpetuate this mythology with 3rd party articles and magical graphs. Jesse Livermore's bucket shop tickertape was the closest thing to a fair trade any of us would ever see. Hedge funds, algos, HFT front-running and milli-cent trade extensions have superceded pre-market traders' lounges and seats on the exchanges. Today the theft has been jacked to near light speed. Newton's f=ma2 or Einstein's e=mc2 .  Classical or quantum... screwed is screwed; what's the difference, really? 

In reply to by Crazy Or Not

Soph Wed, 08/16/2017 - 10:21 Permalink

"easy to get rich" is always a bit of an overstatement in markets...they can surprise you when you get too overconfident in your strategy.That said, I'd agree that there are some great technical patterns to trade currently, and in the recent past, that can chock up some nice returns.

MrBoompi Wed, 08/16/2017 - 10:33 Permalink

"the market is completely divorced from whatever is going on,"This has been going on for years.  Are we supposed to put our trust in a guy who says it yesterday?  As if it is some kind of new fucking revelation?  

Rebelrebel7 (not verified) Wed, 08/16/2017 - 10:51 Permalink

Ok. Good luck! I hope that everyone becomes instantly obscenely filthy rich over night! 

Grandad Grumps Wed, 08/16/2017 - 11:25 Permalink

Obviously, when we die and our consciousness leaves our bodies and this world, we cannot take money or possessions with us.

What then constitutes a good life?

The controllers of this world want us to believe that accumulating crap and hedonism make for a good life. They can have that life if they want. It is not for me.

HushHushSweet Wed, 08/16/2017 - 11:36 Permalink

Rope 'em ALL in with promises (and well-publicized proof) of "guaranteed" high returns, get 'em hooked, get 'em more hooked, get 'em obsessed, get 'em hanging on for dear life, even as the market starts to show the tell-tale shakes of withdrawal, keep 'em hanging on for dear life, keep 'em hanging on for dear life, and then -- PULL IT.And as the freefall spins out of control, buy up the final plunge (before the addled masses have a chance to see what's what) for pennies on the dollar.Worked well in 1929.