How do you spot a market top? Is risk being mispriced? What is the greatest macro opportunity of the next decade? These were some of the questions Real Vision asked as part of the latest quarterly deck compilation of so-called "Killer Charts".
Reaching out to its close group of financial experts, Real Vision Publications has tried to filter out the relentless noise from these unusual times because as RealVision writes, "when the POTUS is spending half his time tweeting about the stock market, something doesn’t add up. As a result, navigating financial markets have never been more precarious and hazardous for your wealth."
To provide some insight for investors, Real Vision Publications is sharing 26 hand-picked charts from some of the more prominent thinkers in investment research. From macro big picture themes to market signals (you only see at the top) and other more opaque investment ideas, RealVision has attached 6 of its latest charts, 5 of which exclusively with ZeroHedge readers, and won’t be shared with other media houses.
According to Raoul Pal and the folks over at RealVision, "this chart pack will be sure to get you thinking in a whole new direction." And even if it doesn't, it should at least make BTFD somewhat more informed if not enjoyable.
Here are some perspectives:
Oil: Time to Sell?: Oil has been in a choppy but somewhat predictable range for the last 14 months. Nautilus’s analysis suggests oil should fall to the $40 – $42.50 range.
Can the Fed Successfully Shrink Its Balance Sheet? US equity markets have moved in lockstep with the Fed’s B/S. Should we worry about the Fed pulling the rug? Work from MI2 suggests Fed B/S reduction is likely to upset the apple cart.
The Most Expensive Market Ever: As TTMYGH points out, the CAPE ratio is a better metric of valuation, as it strips out any shenanigans from corporate management. As you can see in this great chart from Dr John Hussman, with regard to valuations, we are in newly charted territory.
Alarm Bells Ringing: Cantillon Consulting’s stock market thermometer, the Sotheby Indicator, is flashing warning signs. When Sotheby’s hits these stock price peaks, it’s a sign people have more money than sense!
Peak Complacency: The Credit Strategist points out that European junk bonds are trading at the same yield/credit risk as US Treasuries. Someone isn’t doing their due diligence.
Sell the S&P – the stars have aligned: Hedge Fund Telemetry make a living out of market timing. The stars have aligned: DeMark counts, seasonality, and sentiment suggest the S&P is about to fall.
To download all 26 charts for free, click here.