Stocks Retrace Tax Bounce As Trump Raises Debt-Ceiling Doubts Overnight

Stocks are rapidly erasing yesterday's "making strides on taxes" gains as Trump's government shutdown threats remind investors just how fragile this whole facade is. The 'risk-off' trade is evident everywhere with Treasury and Bund yields tumbling, gold up, and USDJPY sliding.

Bond yields are tumbling - erasing all of yesterday's losses - Gold is back at yesterday's highs, and the dollar is leaking lower...

 

As we noted earlier, yesterday, when stocks surged at the market open following Politico's report that Trump is unexpectedly "making strides" on tax reform, we warned that "it can all be wiped away as soon as tonight, when Trump will deliver a speech to his "base", in which he may promptly burn any of the goodwill he created with capital markets following his far more conventional Afghanistan speech last night." That's precisely what happened, because on Tuesday night, in another fiery campaign rally, Trump fiercely defended his response to violence in Charlottesville, made passing remarks from a teleprompter about the need for unity and inclusion before veering off-script to attack the news media, Democrats and even Republicans in the Senate whom he accused of distorting his response and blocking his agenda.

But what spooked markets, and what has sent both US futures and European stocks lower, was Trump's threat to bring the U.S. government to the brink of a shutdown if needed to pressure Congress into funding the border wall that was a centerpiece of his 2016 campaign, stoking renewed fears that the debt ceiling debate will be far more contentious that the market expects.

 

And the inflection is getting worse...