Nomura: "Probability Of North Korean War Breaking Out Is 35%"

The latest missile launch by North Korea on Tuesday will elevate tensions for some time, but it will be contained, writes Kwon Young Sun, a senior economist at Nomura International.

Quoted by Bloomberg, Kown writes that Tuesday's provocation has reignited market concerns just as tensions were seen easing through mid-August. As a result, "tensions between N.Korea and the U.S. reached levels unseen since 1994." He adds that another spike is plausible, considering the military drill between the U.S. and S.Korea is still ongoing.

Oddly enough, as we discussed earlier, despite the latest geopolitical shock, the South Korean stock market and currency were barely shaken. However, according to the Nomura strategist, unless the dollar keeps weakening, other drivers that could limit KRW’s strength include Korea’s relations with China, trade tensions with the U.S., local capital outflows and intervention by the authorities

More apropos to what is bother markets this morning, Kwon writes that "although it is hard to predict", three early warning signals may suggest imminent U.S. military action:

  • U.S. orders for evacuation of U.S. citizens in S.Korea
  • U.S. military builds up large scale force near the Korean peninsula
  • U.S. elevates defense readiness condition to level 3 from level 4

Finally, he writes that the "probability for war ultimately breaking out on the Korean peninsula is about 35%", although the number is most likely to change going forward.

Comments

Mr 9x19 yomutti2 Tue, 08/29/2017 - 13:17 Permalink

what you don't understand with your faggot avatar is what is doing NK, what game it is playing. the goal, for all those idiots cock sucker who do not get it, is to display worldwide the inability of the usa as military superpower.anyone with history research will realize usa has not won a single war over almost a century in some conditions ( by themselves, for the ww2 especially )if usa budge a fucking nail on NK, china wipe usa from the globe, NK will never starts a war, it is all about poking the old fart with a wooden stick  " you cant move, POK you can't move  POK you cant move."it is a brain hack to usa.usa is loosing  at lightspeed pace on all fronts,  china/NK putting a military humiliation on the usa.  NK is a nation that just want to developp its own defenses... period.usa drones never violated aerian territories of others counteries over time ? and you whine about a balistic empty shell going above your head ? do you fucking know how many satelites usa set  just above your fucking fuck face ?get lost.

In reply to by yomutti2

Newsboy John Kich Tue, 08/29/2017 - 08:14 Permalink

This is actually status-quo. Trump's plan was to get China to Sanction N.Korea in UNSC, along with Russia, then nibble away at China and Russia with sanctions, but suddenly, N.Korea is making him lose face after he hits China and Russia. I wonder why. Flying this sucker all the way over the Japanese islands makes the point that an EMP could have gone off at any point of that. N.Korea is still giving the same offer. "Stop fucking with us with military exercises and we'll stop fucking with you by testing nukes and missiles." Same damned offer.

In reply to by John Kich

ReturnOfDaMac Newsboy Tue, 08/29/2017 - 10:59 Permalink

American so-called "leadership" just doesn't get it: "you can no longer bomb, bully, and boss everybody around".  This blatant, complete, and total humiliation of the organge one, with all of his fire-and-fury bluster, is being exposed for the paper tiger it is.  No military solution here.  If you have any courage, or sense, you will control your stupid emotional impulses, sit down with the fat kid and address his security concerns and ours and reach an agreement. We have proven to be NOT trustworthy.  So give up on asking them to give up their only defense from our aggression.  They have nukes and they are keeping them.  Get used to it. They are not stupid and they will not give up their only defense from us.  Neither would we if in their position.  So try to do something very hard, control your emotions and "think" for a change.

In reply to by Newsboy

ReturnOfDaMac Mr 9x19 Tue, 08/29/2017 - 14:06 Permalink

There are literally hundreds of millions of us in the US who completely "get it". The simple fact is, we have lost control of our government. Politicians now pick their constituents instead of the other way around. They are beholden to MIC and big multi-national corps and don't really give a rats behind what we the people think anymore. They've got it rigged so that they get re-elected. Trump was the first to break through by showing both so-called parties how completely fed-up we are with this whole charade but the orange one is no savior. He is caving in to war mongerers and we the people are going to have yell LOUD AND CLEAR that we are having none of it.

In reply to by Mr 9x19

the cork ReturnOfDaMac Tue, 08/29/2017 - 16:33 Permalink

Who told you that, libturd?We can still bomb the shit out of this guy.We're gonna do it too.The little cock sucker signed his own death warrant when he threatened to nuke the US, Guam, S. Korea, Japan etc.Dumshits like you would rather see him hit one of those targets first and then decide what to do.Hope he hit's your trailer house first, snowflake.See if that changes your libturd loony tune

In reply to by ReturnOfDaMac

GUS100CORRINA Tue, 08/29/2017 - 07:09 Permalink

Nomura: "Probability Of North Korean War Breaking Out Is 35%"My response: Must be a lot of people short because they keep piling on with MORE disaster news.

Thordoom Tue, 08/29/2017 - 07:13 Permalink

I do not want to be the one naughty party pooper but i heared those bad North Koreans  said that they are ready to deescalate the situation if US stop harrasing them with annual war games  with htheir slaves SK which the peace loving US has  completely rejected over and over. The Us doesn't do negotiations or diplomacy at all. You have to surrender and accept anythign they order you.

Prepaid Tue, 08/29/2017 - 07:17 Permalink

Probability of the NK nonsense continuing? 100% The world is a stage and it needs Customer's. Anything you see on the world Stage is only a surprise to the Sheep who swallow this Slop!

Byrond Tue, 08/29/2017 - 07:26 Permalink

If China allied with NK in the event that war did break out, the world would change drastically. I can see it happening. After you assemble junk for the US day after day, you get to thinking about change. 

Sizzurp Tue, 08/29/2017 - 07:31 Permalink

There is too much momentum now for war not to happen. It's already happening. For all we know Trump has already taken out a few of Kim's subs.

Byrond Tue, 08/29/2017 - 07:33 Permalink

Another path of thought, the US may be much more reliant upon China than people realize. If China wanted to conquer a bunch of the world (or take over much more of the global economy and territory), they might just go ahead and do that. NK is kind of like the global checkmate. If we do bomb NK, it's all over as we know it. But is that a bad thing in the long run, in the instance that China or NK miscalculate? 

TheNuclearGenie (not verified) Tue, 08/29/2017 - 07:37 Permalink

When are we going to have the limited nuclear war as advocated by Henry Kissinger already in 1958? We can now see how far ahead of his time the man was. We need to use tactical nuclear weapons on strategic military targets in North Korea to show this madman that he can no longer threaten the free world without consequences. Firing a ICBM missile over another country is a major act of war and needs to be racted to in some manner the includes the use of nuclear force. This has gone long enough. If we dont show that we are willing and capable of engaging in a limited nuclear war then this will soon end in a major nuclear war. Either way, this is the road we a going down on. This disaster has been in the making for decades now. Its time to end it with minimal casualties.

Wild tree overmedicatedu… Tue, 08/29/2017 - 08:12 Permalink

True that OM.  Flying under radar by sub lauched drone strike with Hellfire would be my first choice, second would be by sniper. His replacement would not be so willing to be China's proxy, nor kill his relatives with anti-aircraft guns.Of course, there is always the CIA. After so long of toppling leaders, surely they have a few ideas (HA, and don't call me Shirley).

In reply to by overmedicatedu…

Cutter Tue, 08/29/2017 - 07:54 Permalink

Faulty assessment. The war has already begun. Yesterday was the first shot.

It will be continuing and uncontrolled escalation from here on.

Able Ape Tue, 08/29/2017 - 07:57 Permalink

WAR?  Hell yeah, buddy!  I'll gladly give up a limb or two for cheap ribbons or "carnival prize" medals to wear proudly on my chest or whatever is left of it!... USA! USA! USA!  Hey, I need somebody to change my catheter and my shit bag.....

Sambo Tue, 08/29/2017 - 08:00 Permalink

My guess is that the real Kim Jong Un is hiding in Beijing or Moscow. If that is indeed the case, then the probability of war is now 100%.

Give Me Some Truth Tue, 08/29/2017 - 08:31 Permalink

We host a major war scrimmage with South Korea; North Korea shoots a missile over Japan. I guess this too will pass. Of all the factors considered and discussed here, I think one trumps all others: We simply cannot afford a war with North Korea. Yes, we could just ramp up the printing press, suspend the debt ceiling, fund Harvey relief, ramp up in Afghanistan, build the wall, provide a tax cut, rebuild our infrastructure, but at some point going from $20 trillion in admitted debt to $30 trillion in - what? - two years - is going to be noticed by somebody. A Great Depression and/or or hyperinflation will descend on a country where already 78 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.In such a world, a sane person doesn't take on another trillion-dollar purchase.