Fed Vice Chair, Stanley Fischer...Exit Stage Left: "This One's Gonna Hurt"

Via Global Macro Monitor,

This one is going to hurt.   Stanley Fischer is one, if not, our favorite economist.

As Larry Summers points out in his recent piece in the Washington Post,

The Fed and the international monetary system will be weaker for his departure from official responsibility. It is the end of an era.  Larry Summers, September 7

Our friend, Terence Reilly, over at the Wall Street Blog sums it up best.

 When the pressure is on we like to have what we term “adults” in the room. The “adults” are not only the smartest people in the room but they are people who know how and when to make a decision. Stanley Fischer is one of those “adults”. Dr Fischer, former professor at MIT, vice chairman of CitiGroup, and chief economist of the World Bank, and former Governor of the Bank of Israel, resigned his position as vice chair of the Federal Reserve. Fischer played the role of intelligent hawk who we felt comfortable leaving in charge of the store. As this critical time approaches of the Fed removing stimulus his absence alone makes us less confident in the “adults” left in the room. In one of his last public speeches as part of the Federal Reserve Dr Fischer warned about historically high asset valuations. 

 

Let me conclude my assessment of current financial stability conditions with a discussion of asset valuation pressures… In equity markets, price-to-earnings ratios now stand in the top quintiles of their historical distributions, while corporate bond spreads are near their post-crisis lows. …

 

The general rise in valuation pressures may be partly explained by a generally brighter economic outlook, but there are signs that risk appetite increased as well…So far, the evidently high risk appetite has not lead to increased leverage across the financial system, but close monitoring is warranted.

 

Stanley Fischer, June 27, 2017

These guys, such as Mr. Fischer, are very smart and have pretty good timing.

Robert Rubin’s Exit From Treasury In May 1999

Remember,  Robert Rubin, deciding not to finish out his term as Secretary of the Treasury and left the Clinton administration just a few months before the dot.com bubble popped?

Of course, he knew it was a massive bubble ready to burst, and that is why,  we believe, the Clinton administration didn’t spend the federal budget surplus as they concluded it was temporary -  windfall revenues from a stock market bubble and economy.  Their administration was under tremendous pressure by their own party to open the checkbook.

They left a nice surplus for W. to stimulate the economy after the NASDAQ fell  80 percent, business capex collapsed, and we moved into, what in hindsight,  was just only a “shallow” recession.   Then 9/11 hit.

That was good governance on the part of President Clinton,  Secretary Rubin and Summers.

Totally unlike what we do in California, where the pols program ongoing expenditures, such as public pension increases, with the windfall tax revenues,  which collapse with the asset bubbles, leaving gaping budget deficits.

The 2000 episode eventually cost Governor Gray Davis his job to the “The Terminator.”

 

Comments

fx Pinto Currency Mon, 09/11/2017 - 16:23 Permalink

"leverage in the US financial system hasn't risen yet" - says this clown - and that's your FAVORITE economist?? Seriously?WTF!? You know what is worse than a clueless central banker, who is just plain wrong? A central banker who knows all too well that things go in a wrong direction but is too much of a pussy to ever have the balls to say so, and to vote accordingly in FOMC meetings. Instead, he gives lukewarm vague warnings beween thelines then and now.Give me a break! The departure of tools like Fisher is no loss, not for anybody! Couldn't care less about this motherfucker. Yellen is a dumb, clueless Goldman whore, but at least you know 100% what to expect from her. With Fisher, one always thought, that maybe, someday, the guy will speak out and act and talk straight and honest. But it never happened; instead, he retreats like a worm before the shit hits the fan. BUt yeah, I fully expect him to speak out a year or two from now with lots of words of wisdom - now, that it won't make any difference to him and to anybody. Ten years from now, or 20, he will tell everybody "told you so" - just that he never said and did anything while he had the means to do so. Just another worthless bankster bastard, really.

In reply to by Pinto Currency

Robert Trip Mon, 09/11/2017 - 13:55 Permalink

Another fucking financial parasite walking off into the sunset while laughing in our faces.The Fuhrer dealt with these cocksuckers swiftly and effectively while we hang on their every word.

Conscious Reviver ShorTed Tue, 09/12/2017 - 01:20 Permalink

You got it wrong Ted. He's goofing on Stanley.Stanley Fischer is one of the "people who know how and when to make a decision."Yeah, like when to bail on his gig at The Fed. Then the kicker is the chart comparing Ruben's departure to Fisher's, predicting what's in store for stawks.Stanley knows when to get in the lifeboat and the author is pointing that out.

In reply to by ShorTed

East Indian Mon, 09/11/2017 - 14:02 Permalink

Quite strange that borders are becoming oblitrated, and personalities smoothly transition from one country to another. Only the other day heard of a British MP settling down in America and jumping into politics there; now hearing about a central banker of one sovereign country moving on to administer another country's central bank. And we have Saakashvili, suddenly becoming an Ukrainian citizen governing a province there.I dont think even the Soviet empire had this sort of mobility among its satellites (even though many of the Soviet ministers went on to head their own countires). 

Consuelo Mon, 09/11/2017 - 14:05 Permalink

   "They left a nice surplus for W. to stimulate the economy after the NASDAQ fell  80 percent..." Would someone care to remind/refresh the memory of that era, and just where the so-called 'surpluses' came from which allowed the carnival barkers to venerate Clinton as the one who 'balanced the budget' and left budget $surpluses as his defining legacy...? 

NemesisteM Mon, 09/11/2017 - 14:05 Permalink

Hitler avoided the central banks by issuing a state currency.  Germany flourished.  Then war was declared on Germany as churchill and his puppet masters couldn't allow that.

MrSteve NemesisteM Mon, 09/11/2017 - 15:06 Permalink

Germany flourished due to rearming the military after losing WW1 and suffering through the Weimar Republic hyperinflation. The Nazis invaded Poland in a deal with Stalin to split Poland between them. Britain had a mutual defense treaty with Poland and England went to war the next day due to the treaty obligation. Churchill had been warning about German rearmament for many years.

In reply to by NemesisteM

Lucky Leprachaun MrSteve Mon, 09/11/2017 - 16:26 Permalink

The Soviet Union invaded Poland at the same time that Germany invaded. Why then did Britain and France not declare war on them as well? Instead they became allies in due course! No, the war was to destroy the Germany that had defied the central bankers and who freed themselves from Jewish control. Before Hitler ever was in a position to do anything international Jewry declared war on him as the 1934 Express headline 'Judea Declares War On Germany' makes clear.As usual of course (((they))) got the goyim to do their fighting.

In reply to by MrSteve

ET (not verified) Mon, 09/11/2017 - 14:11 Permalink

Every time I come across a post where it is all cuss words, I think of how debased the people have become, not just the currency.

Instead of using the word bullshit, use the words nonsense, ridiculous or absurd.

Instead of using the word fucking to express your anger, use the words outrageous, unjust or maddening.

So many more options if people care to learn.