Boris Johnson Threatens To Resign If Theresa May "Goes Against His Brexit Demands", Pound Rises

In confirmation that Theresa May's upcoming Florence speech this Friday is not only what many have called "the most important day for Brexit since the referendum", but also the most opaque, the Telegraph reports that UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson will resign as before the weekend if Theresa May veers towards a “Swiss-style” arrangement with the EU in her upcoming speech.

The Foreign Secretary believes he will have no option but to walk out of the Cabinet if the Prime Minister advocates permanently paying for access to the single market. Stopped by reporters in New York today after going for a run, Mr Johnson said he was not going to resign and described the Cabinet as "a nest of singing birds".

However, he has reportedly "told friends that a so-called “EEA minus” version of Brexit is something he “could not live with”.

If she tells the Cabinet she has made up her mind in favour of the Swiss-style  “EEA minus” option, which would yoke Britain to the EU through payments for single market access and adherence to most EU rules and regulations, Mr Johnson could not support it and would have to resign under the convention of collective Cabinet responsibility.

As a reminder, an "EEA minus" scenario (ie like Switzerland and Norway) is one of several visions for Brexit emerging within the government. One recent sellside observation defines it as follows:

In blunt terms, the Swiss model is outside the EU, but with access to the single market (whilst not being inside it). Britain would shadow the EU’s regulatory structures and transpose European Court of Justice Judgements. They want to negotiate a similar deal for the UK but “minus” the freedom of movement. Curcially though, Switzerland had to concede and give the EU certain Freedom of Movement – the UK wants to get this deal “minus” freedom of movement (hence the name). This proposal supposedly has the backing of Chancellor Hammond, Home Secretary Amber Rudd, Cabinet Secretary Jeremy Heywood and Olly Robbins (who was, until last night, civil service head of the Department for Exiting the European Union).

The "Swiss-style" arrangement is in contrast to a "CETA Plus”, or omprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, a la Canada, which negotiated a free-trade agreement with the EU which effectively eliminates 98% of tariffs between the two countries, which the EU Commission has said will save the EU over half a billion EUR in taxes each year, and allows “mutual recognition in regulated professions such as architects, accountants and engineers, and easier transfers of company staff and other professionals between the EU and Canada”.

Following the report GBPUSD has jumped about 30 ticks, rising above 1.353, suggesting the the market's vote is, in fact, for EEA minus... and also a "Boris Johnson minus" outcome.

Comments

Manthong Tue, 09/19/2017 - 08:35 Permalink

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 Oh, what a tragic loss to the diplomatic world that would be!

chubbar Tue, 09/19/2017 - 08:44 Permalink

Why don't they call it what it is, BREMAIN LIGHT. It's merely a way to give the cover of a Brexit and still keep Britain under the yoke of Brussels. The globalists wiin with that arrangement. Britain needs a HARD Brexit by telling the EU to stick it up their ass if they don't want to trade with Britain. Those little cunts in Brussels can pack sand!

Ghordius chubbar Tue, 09/19/2017 - 10:00 Permalink

that "yoke of Brussels" is... regs & laws, in case you were not paying attentionthat's the same regs and laws that are in process of being incorporated into British Law, with the so called "Great Repeal Bill"it's the same (current) set of rules that, if asked on any British street, nobody can produce even one example of one they would be happy to see go away, after a resort to a joke about "bent bananas" or something similardo you really need to slander foreigners in order to take your country out of the EU? not according to the treatiesjust leave... and stop moaning about things you could not talk in detail even if your life depended on itglobalist? don't know about that. but Boris Johnson is all for globalization, in the sense of full barrier-free trade with the whole world, and rich people always welcome, no question asked, particularly if they buy London REbtw, it's poor business sense to talk like "stick it up your ass" to future business partners and customers. you are, as a country, asking for some kind of preferential treatment, remember?

In reply to by chubbar

msamour Ghordius Tue, 09/19/2017 - 10:58 Permalink

You should know what happens by now when you push the British. My suggestion to them would be to pull the American card. Inform the world that Britain is positioning their entire fleet 12 miles off shore from Belgium and they are arming their nuclear arsenal. You think the French will intervene? I seriously doubt it. Hell I am betting the French nuclear missiles go faster backwards then they do forward. The European hubris has been an ongoing world affair going centuries now. It is getting old. You have more than enough proof that the entire EU enterprise has failed. Eastern European countries are on the verge of breaking out. The globalist politicians of Europe have failed. It is all coming apart. In your hubris though, you do not seem to see it. You are sitting on a lounge chair listening to the band play as the Titanic is sinking.

In reply to by Ghordius

smacker Ghordius Tue, 09/19/2017 - 14:43 Permalink

"[...] "nobody can produce even one example of one they would be happy to see go away"I have no doubt that a very long list of EU laws which need to be repealed is available. And please keep in mind that many laws passed by UK Parliament actually emanated in Brussels but the British people are never told that.Successive UK.govs have no choice but to enact these Brussels laws due to treaties which themselves were never explained.Face it Ghordius, Britain's EU membership has been a stitch up of giant proportions from the very beginning.

In reply to by Ghordius

willy up the creek Tue, 09/19/2017 - 08:44 Permalink

Love Bo Jo.  He's a young Winston Churchill.  He should be PM now, and would be if Michael Gove hadn't stabbed him in the back.  The result - T. May.  Meh.  I want Bo Jo!  

Hail Spode Tue, 09/19/2017 - 08:48 Permalink

Typical of insiders the world over when the vote does not go their way. They CALL what they are doing what the vote was, but the actual policy is something different. 

Ghordius Freefromeudict… Tue, 09/19/2017 - 10:09 Permalink

that would be, in "EU terms", what is called "Third Country Status"meaning no preferential treatment whatsoevermeanwhile, it still does not state exactly where the new border ought to be, in Ireland. or what status Brits in the EU or EU citizens in the UK would havemeaning: fine with the principle, but your gov has not asked for a "hard brexit", they are asking for a special relationship (assuming you are a Brit)here, on the Continent, we continue to watch amazed to the Remainer vs Leaver Ongoing Battle... utterly devoid of details. pesky, important details... for the Irish and Continentals, but, or so it looks, not for the English (don't ask the Scots, don't ask the Scots)meh. the clock is ticking. and who knows, perhaps PM May's speech might even bring some clarity

In reply to by Freefromeudict…

msamour Ghordius Tue, 09/19/2017 - 10:51 Permalink

Do not forget that the UK has nuclear weapons, and the dominant winds prevail towards the East... I hate to say it, but the shit stains in Europe should be remineded that if they embrace their dictators, there should be no problem for their complete removal from the land using appropriate means. I think we have reached the point where playing nice gets no one anything. Europeans are asking for it.

In reply to by Ghordius

adonisdemilo Tue, 09/19/2017 - 08:57 Permalink

The list of chicken shit EU lickspittles shows exactly who seems to prefer Drunker Junker as the figure head in the UK instead of Queen Liz.It's quite a short list but it should be a lot longer.If Teresa May sells the country out to appease these traitors she will go down in history as the woman who dumped on the UK.SOVEREIGNTY!! forget it. Hyek's ROAD TO SERFDOM beckons.FUCK THE EU.

smacker Tue, 09/19/2017 - 09:46 Permalink

Article: "Olly Robbins (who was, until last night, civil service head of the Department for Exiting the European Union)"OMG, only Britain could have a whole civil service dept by this name.We're doomed.

Funn3r smacker Tue, 09/19/2017 - 11:27 Permalink

The scale of the task is enormous. It's intergalactically yuuuge. Of course they have a "whole civil service dept", what else? It's very hard to get staff for it as well because it is looked on as a career graveyard, so there is some serious bribery incentivising happening to entice people in.Whether you're pro- or anti- Brexit you have to ask yourself do we really need to spend so much time and money on something like this when our economy is already in the toilet? Couldn't those civil service people be doing something productive like saving the NHS?

In reply to by smacker

smacker Tue, 09/19/2017 - 09:54 Permalink

It's not surprising that "the market" supports the "EEA Minus" option but BrExit isn't at its core about satisfying the City of London, although every effort should be made to protect Britain's economy. It's about the government carrying out the vote by the British people to BrExit the EU.We did not vote to be half-in or half-out. We voted for in-yer-face BrExit. Period.I favour the Canadian-style deal "CETA Plus". It looks to be about the maximum involvement with Brussels that any sane Brit could tolerate.

Ghordius smacker Tue, 09/19/2017 - 10:14 Permalink

"I favour the Canadian-style deal "CETA Plus""are you... asking nicely for this kind of super-duper special favour from the 27?which actually contradicts your "We voted for in-yer-face BrExit. Period"according to whom, are you asking? well, according to the agreements among the 27"in-yer-face" is not "CETA Plus", on the "EU books". it's "eating your cake and have it, too"nor is it "nicely, please with a cherry on top"

In reply to by smacker

smacker Ghordius Tue, 09/19/2017 - 12:01 Permalink

Poor Ghordius, you really are getting knickers twisted about Brexit. Is that because you're gonna miss all the money we hand over? {shrug}Apart from that, I am aware that my stated preference is not the same as a clean break, but my comment is based on my realistic assumption that the Brit pols will not deliver a clean break and CETA Plus is better than EEA Minus. 

In reply to by Ghordius

100 smacker Tue, 09/19/2017 - 12:06 Permalink

And the majority voted on the grounds of controlling immigration and ending EU rule of law in favour of British rule of law, rather than improved economic performanceand im confident that they would do so again.1.Leave immediately2 negotiate terms with the EU for their access to the UK market (this should be easily negotiable without one side having to pay the other anything but if they want to be pushy on continued payments then I'm sure Britain can come up with an acceptable annual ammount which Brussels will pay London.)

In reply to by smacker

smacker 100 Tue, 09/19/2017 - 13:31 Permalink

I've always been prepared to go thru a period of negotiations with Brussels but at the same time suspected it would not do so in good faith. I'm wondering what German industry has to say about this, especially its car makers who will lose their biggest market in Europe if a trade deal isn't done. ps-dunno who red-downed you, wasn't me :-)

In reply to by 100

BritBob Tue, 09/19/2017 - 10:23 Permalink

Boris Johnson has denied reports he is preparing to walk away from his Cabinet post amid a growing row over Theresa May’s Brexit strategy.Reports said the Foreign Secretary was contemplating resignation if Mrs May's key Brexit speech in Italy on Friday contained measures he could not accept. (Independent 19.9.17)