Dennis Gartman: "This We Find Anomalous"

With stocks at all time highs, Dennis Gartman, who took the time to make a quick mockery of cryptocurrencies in his latest letter, is starting to get nervous on risk assets, pointing out what he calls an "anomaly." Below are the selected excerpts from his latest note:

THE S&P FUTURES: They Rise While Volume Falls!: We are still erring bullishly of the equity market, but we do find it passing strange that as the market has moved higher the volumes being transacted are plunging… and aren’t price and volume to move in concert, one with the other?.



STOCKS, GLOBALLY, CONTINUE THEIR RELENTLESS ADVANCE as six of the ten markets comprising our International Index have risen in the course of the past twenty four hours and as four have fallen… none by anything approaching 1% in either direction however. Further, if there is anything resembling a geographical trend it is that Asian shares have been a bit weaker than North American and European shares were stronger. On balance, however, there has been relatively little activity as the world awaits the final day of the two day FOMC meeting and as the world awaits the post-meeting statement by the Fed and the further post-meeting press conference by Dr. Yellen.


Two things have our attention this morning with the first being that the CNN Fear & Greed Index has risen by the barest of margins since yesterday, closing last evening at 81, up 1 point from that of the day previous. Secondly, we draw attention to the chart of the S&P futures [above]… the “lead” position in TGL as we have so often referred to it over the years and the place where we “float” potential new ideas or show charts defending old ideas… noting that as prices have risen to new highs the volume has waned and waned and waned again. This we find anomalous, for volume should always follow the trend and in this instance the trend is up while the volume is most assuredly down.


“Anomalies” tell stories. This is a lesson we have learned over the years and this anomaly it telling us that although the trend is up and although we are to remain bullish, we should be warily so; we should be modestly so; we should be fearfully so, but most of all we should not be aggressively so.


We have not reported our own positions in our retirement account of late and for a good reason: we’ve done nothing; that is, we are holding the same positions we were holding mid-week last week: we are long of gold in EUR and Yen denominated terms and we are long of a very small sum of corn via the corn ETF. We’ve done nothing and we see nothing more to be done…at least for the moment.

And, as a bonus, here is Gartman's take on crypto:

"THE CRYPTO?UNIVERSE JUST KEEPS EXPANDING: Back in ’13, when the crypto market capitalization was $1.7 billion, Bitcoin was 93% of the total. As of now, with a  market cap of $144 billion, Bitcoin is 47% of the total as Ethereum, Ripple, Dash, Ethereum “Classic,” Diet Dr. Pepper, Coke One and others compete for attention!"


hedgeless_horseman jcaz Wed, 09/20/2017 - 09:34 Permalink


we are long of gold in EUR and Yen denominated terms and we are long of a very small sum of corn via the corn ETF. We’ve done nothing and we see nothing more to be done…at least for the moment.

We are long of gold in KRUG and MPLF terms and are very long of livestock, pastureland, skills, gardens, guns, and good ol' boys via the country life.  We’ve done nothing and we see nothing more to be done…at least for the moment.

In reply to by jcaz

Albertarocks Rock On Roger Wed, 09/20/2017 - 10:53 Permalink

I agree 100%, which is why I'm heavily into silver miners.  But my point was that Gartman points fingers at somebody else "seeking attention".   I find that irony to be pretty darned funny.I get the sense that on a personal level he's probably a real good guy.  Although if you were at a cocktail party with him he'd be looking you in the eye, talking, with a mouthful of wine dribbling out all over his tie.

In reply to by Rock On Roger

mily Wed, 09/20/2017 - 09:31 Permalink

And since when levitation on falling volume is an anomaly? it's a sign of divergence Dennis, BTW I love those big, fat trend lines

gmak Wed, 09/20/2017 - 10:23 Permalink

Anomalous is when Gartmann is correct about market direction. Anomalous is when his fund still has investors in spite of being wrong on EVERY market turn.

JDFX Wed, 09/20/2017 - 11:43 Permalink

Er, price can adjust in a vacuum. So what does that tell you about psychological trading decisions biasing that price ' should ' go with volume ?  Spoiler alert. It's flawed ! 

UnKeynes Wed, 09/20/2017 - 11:59 Permalink

It's only "anomalous" to a brane-ded Neo-Keynesian NWO shill like Gartman.  I suppose that, since Lord Keynes didn't teach about the VIX volatility index (since it didn't exist then), as one of Keynes' acolytes, Mr. Gartman is still languishing in the same Slough of Despond as all of his fellow "Keynesians" today: i.e., doctrinaire IGNORANCE.  Or is it really EVIL, masquerading as stupidity?  Pick one.From “The Economic Consequences of the Peace” by John Maynard Keynes “Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch (devalue/inflate) the currency. Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch (devalue/inflate) the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one in a million can diagnose. "By a gradual, continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity (fairness) of the existing system of distribution of wealth.” Please note that the operation of this process is totally independent on the type of economy, whether “capitalist”, “socialist”, “communist”, or “other”, and 100% dependent on the power that the banksters have over the monetary life of the nation. As Lord Rothschild said, “Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes its laws.” This happened to the United States of America in 1913, with the creation of the “Federal Reserve”, and later expanded with the creation of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, which remains a totally "dark" financial entity, with ZERO accountability to anyone outside the Dark State. 

any_mouse CStanford Wed, 09/20/2017 - 13:35 Permalink

It's also a longer term trend than just the last couple of months. YoY Volume is down significantly in SPY from 2015.

I commented on this a month ago.

Mid Sept 2015 90 day average Volume was ~ 130,000,000+. 90 day Price range was $206-207.

Mid Sept 2016 90 day average Volume was ~ 93,000,000+. 90 day Price range was $212-213.

Mid Aug 2017 90 day average Volume was ~ 67,000,000+. 90 day Price range was $241-242.

Collapsing Volume and significantly Higher price range.

BTFD at the ATFH!

In reply to by CStanford