In Major Disappointment, Merkel Wins German Election Despite Worst Result Since 1949; AfD Surges To Enter Parliament

Update: FX markets just opened and as expected there is some Euro-selling pressure in the early going...


Update: here is the latest breakdown according to ARD:

  • Merkel’s CDU/CSU projected to win 32.9% of votes
  • SPD projected to win 20.8%
  • AfD projected to win 13.1%
  • FDP projected to win 10.5%
  • Greens projected to win 8.9%
  • Left projected to win 8.9%

The following Bloomberg projection of the Bundestag's projected seat breakdown shows just how strong the AfD surge has been in context, and how splintered Germany's establishment is as a result.

* * *

The German polls have officially closed, and the first exit polls numbers come in, confirming the expected fourth victory for Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU, however getting a unexpectedly low 32.5% of the vote, which according to Europe Elects was the worst result for Merkel's CDU/CSU (EPP) since 1949. Merkel's main challenger, the SPD, got 20%, also its worst result since Nazi era 1945; furthermore, the SPD has said it plans to enter the opposition, collapsing the current CDU/CSU-SPD "grand coalition." 

In other words, just like in the recent Franch elections, the German establishment was just trounced:

  • Worst result for Merkel's CDU/CSU since 1949
  • Worst result for SPD Since 1945

Meanwhile, there was an unexpected surge for the newcomers: the dramatic (late) surge for the nationalist AfD party, which got a higher than expected 13.5% of the vote, has made it not only the third most popular German party but also the first far-right German party to enter the Bundestag in 60 years.

The first exit poll breakdown from ARD is as follows.

  • CDU/CSU - 32.5%
  • SPD - 20%
  • AfD - 13.5%
  • FDP - 10.5%
  • Greens - 9.5%
  • Left party - 9%

An exit poll from ZDF has a similar breakdown:

  • CDU/CSU-EPP: 33.5%
  • SPD-S&D: 21%
  • AfD-ENF: 13%
  • FDP-ALDE: 10%
  • LINKE-LEFT: 9%
  • GRÜNE-G/EFA: 9%

Even more troubling for the German establishment is that the far-right AfD was the second strongest party in former Eastern Germany:

According to the Exit Poll, the likely coalition options include CDU/CSU-SPD or CDU/CSU-FDP-GREENS. The various possibilites are shown below.

However, according to SPD's Schwesig, the leadership is united on entering opposition, meaning a grand coalition is unlikely and the CDU may have to settle for a government with the FDP and the Greens, a so-called "Jamaica Coalition." 

* * *

Contrary to earlier reports of muted participation, Europe Elects predicted today's turnout could be as high as 80 per cent, potentially the highest turnout of the past two decades.

Furthermore, as Europe Elects adds, today could mark the highest turnout in a key German state since 1988.  In Sachsen-Anhalt, as of  4pm, turnout today is around 56 per cent - quite a bit higher than in 2013, 2009, 2005 and 2002. Turnout is not quite as high as 1988 yet, when turnout was around 62 per cent at the same time.

Turnout is particularly significant in this election, as fewer CDU and SDP voters heading out to their booths means a larger vote share for the AfD.


Weisshorn Mr 9x19 Sun, 09/24/2017 - 14:43 Permalink

Here is a program with the official Bierkrug for Oktoberfest 2017: looks like Germany is going the way of South Africa.  Pretty soon the Swiss will have to build a country ring wall to keep all the Notherern European refugees out.Of course we have been through all this before.  First they kvetch and beg you to get you to let them hide their stolen loot in our country in special numbered accounts made just for them.  Then, after they are finished Morgentaueing millions, they come back and accuse us of participating in the Holocaust, laundering Nazi gold, and force us to accept millions of their pets, er, "refugees".  Finally they claim that those numbered accounts are being used to hide money from their globalist tax collectors, so they fine those same banks that had protected them 60 years earlier billions upon billions of dollars.  It doesn't repeat, it rhymes.

In reply to by Mr 9x19

Manthong Slack Jack Sun, 09/24/2017 - 17:43 Permalink

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The real Nazis in Germany (the Left) are on the streets protesting the AfD seats win just like the left came out and continues to protest the Trump win here. At some point in time, these disgruntled genuine leftist Nazis on both sides of the pond are going to have to be treated like the subversives they are. The gloves are going to have to come off. For those that do not know, Nazis are far left not right. There is only a small CH difference between them and Marxists/Communists The far right are anarchists. anarchists are not bomb throwers…that is a state sponsored false narrative. Real anarchists want government out of their lives and believe in the non-aggression principle. The bomb throwers, shit throwers, rock throwers, stick wielders and the like tend to wear black, wear hoods, masks and are violent. They are the Soros funded Open Society offshoots,  Antifa, BLM and most thin skinned white and black university liberals. Obama, Clinton, the rich sports malcontented players, poverty pimps like Al Sharpton and almost every Democrat in government feed the hate and keep it alive for their own power and control purposes. They are subversives, seditious and need to be treated as such. This is not spurious bullshit, is important to know… I will post it again as appropriate.

In reply to by Slack Jack

Manthong kochevnik Sun, 09/24/2017 - 19:25 Permalink

 Are you drinking? Don’t waste space here with stupid bullshit. News Flash for you… Early Catholics were Communists. Approximately 8th – 18th   century Catholics were NazisYou could go back to the 5th century for Nazi if you wanted to count the start of that little Spanish Inquisition thing. Modern Catholics are Communists, generally. I am Catholic… I am neither Nazi nor Communist … but regarding the guns… you will have to guess. I am closer to Anarchist, but not necessarily full bore..

In reply to by kochevnik

El Vaquero Manthong Sun, 09/24/2017 - 20:43 Permalink

The actual Nazis believed in the subjugation of the individual to the state, where one of the core missions of the state was to further the German Folk.  Think of it as fascism+.  Contrast that with Communism, where the ideal end goal is a stateless, class society where the ownership of the means of production are community owned.  It sounds good, but it always gets stuck in the subjugation of the individual to the state phase until it collapses (USSR) or turns into something different (China.)  In the context of authoritarism,  the difference seems to be that Communism is worse, i.e. While the Nazis killed a bunch of people, Commies killed not only more, but more of their own.  But they're both very different from our founding values.  

In reply to by Manthong

IvannaHumpalot El Vaquero Sun, 09/24/2017 - 23:09 Permalink

Of course the Nazis were collectivist - that's because they were national SOCIALISTS who were defeated in WWII by national CAPITALISTS USA, UK who believed in the rights of the individual above the collective. National SOCIALISTS or Nazis had a swastika, representing a "worker" on a white circle representing the "nation" on a RED field representing their SOCIALIST ideology. The only reason they get called "far right" now is because socialists are the ones speaking and want to distance themselves from nazis whose ideology they share. It's just today's leftards are GLOBAL SOCIALISTS instead of NATIONAL socialists. Still socialists.

In reply to by El Vaquero

Teja Greyhat Mon, 09/25/2017 - 03:32 Permalink

Funny times ahead my foot!BREAKING NEWS: Frauke Petry, the leader of AfD, has announced she will not be member of the AfD fraction in the German Parliament!I have predicted that the AfD fraction will split (that is really a very simple prediction, like that apples fall down, not up), but would not have guessed they would split BEFORE they even constitute themselves. Dumb Dumber AfD.

In reply to by Greyhat

Teja ThuleNord Mon, 09/25/2017 - 03:41 Permalink

Ha Ha.Unluckily, due to the calculating system for parliamentary seats, they got even more, 94. 88 would have been a good number, a) telling the truth about them and b) enabling them to split into 8 sub-fractions of equal size.But that won't stop them from splitting. With 94 seats, they will have lots of absolutely dumb morons in the team. Petry seems to know that, splitting off by herself already hours after the election.After the 4 years, the largest AfD sub-fraction will have less than 50 members. Taking the bet?

In reply to by ThuleNord

techpriest BLOTTO Sun, 09/24/2017 - 22:17 Permalink

Its not useless, but you have to know where to vote.

For example, with the political parties, do you know where the elections happen to put people into those positions? They make the decision about which campaigns to fund, after all. Did you know only 0.1% of the population shows up to these elections, even though they are public?

By the time of the "elections," the real electing has already happened.

In reply to by BLOTTO

TexasDave 11b40 Sun, 09/24/2017 - 15:10 Permalink

Now that the AfD has access to public funds the real game can begin. Expect Spanish like civil strife within a decade. I'm calling it now. Partitoning of countries ala the yugoslavian states based on religious / political / ethnic lines is all but a done deal. Only a zio war can send things I'm a different direction. -Dave

In reply to by 11b40

action jackson 911 TexasDave Mon, 09/25/2017 - 05:13 Permalink

The actual facts on the ground in Germanistan are much worse than anyone want to admit it. The fact that they can not complain on socail networks shows that in Germanistan are in place a much worse dictatorship that it was in Hitler`s time. Now, that is not problem at all, `cause war or civil wars are a given all over Western Europeistan, they will happen much sooner than anybody would think. You really think that the USA or Trump will let the savage muzzie or sandnigger army to put their hands on nuclear warheads that are all over Western Europeistan? They will be nuked soon, and with that the stupid idiot suicidal german lemmings will disappear as a nation. They are fuckin` suicidal scumbags, they started 2 World Wras, now they set the world on fire again, only this time they will all go. There will be a huge, fuckin` masive bloodbath between Eastern Europe and the muzzie and sandnigger hordes of Western Europeistan. You will go down, fuckers, sooner or later, it will be like you never existed at all. Fuck Germanistan, fuck Murkel, fuck Macaroni, fuck the EU, we will kill you all, leftist globalist nazi scums. Just think about a minute for every women or girl that has been raped thru all over Western Europeistan from 2015 to now, just how broken they are, you will all go to Hell for this, motherfucker useful idiots. Karma is a bitch, motherfuckers. Soon you will see what Hell`s looks like on Earth. Just take a look at that ugly childless bitch Fat Cow Murkel, and you will know what is wrong with that suicidal german idiots. Everything is wrong with them. Good riddance to Hell, fuckers. ALOHA SNACKBAR to your imported muzzie and sandnigger savage bipedal animals, we will kill you all :)) For real, this time.

In reply to by TexasDave