These Maps Explain Who Really Caused Hillary's Loss (Hint: It Wasn't Angry, Sexist, Xenophobic, White Men)

Ever since election day Hillary and her former minions have attempted to reinforce a narrative that some combination of Russian hackers, James Comey and angry, sexist, xenophobic, white men were the cause of here staggering defeat in November 2016.  That said, a new study highlighted by the Washington Post (of all places) today, confirms that it very well could have been black voters that ultimately crushed Hillary's chances at the White House and not so much a sudden onset of racism.

Per the first chart below, precinct-level data gathered by Decision Desk HQ reveals that while Hillary lost ground with white voters compared to Obama's performance in 2012, she also lost significant ground with black and hispanic voters as well. 

But there’s another factor that bears mentioning. One of the reasons that Trump is president and Clinton isn’t is because of how black Americans voted relative to 2012.


After the 2016 election, Ryne Rohla gathered precinct-level vote tallies from nearly every neighborhood in the United States for Decision Desk HQ. This data, which he also collected for the 2012 race, offers a uniquely specific overview of how Americans voted that we’ve used to analyze where Americans were most likely to live in bubbles of shared political thought and how the candidates fared in the places where they raised the most money.

But, where Hillary lost minority votes is perhaps even more important than how many votes she lost.  After analyzing precinct-level data for "majority-black" precincts across the country, Defense Desk HQ created the following maps showing areas where Clinton gained ground with black voters versus 2012 (blue circles) compared to where she lost ground (red circles).  Anyone notice a theme?

Meanwhile, and perhaps most importantly, Hillary lost ground with minority voters in almost every "majority-black" precinct in the four states that ultimately ended up determining the outcome of the election: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

And, just to put some numbers behind maps, roughly 130 million people voted in the 2016 presidential election.  Of that, Wapo says that roughly 12%, or 15.6mm, of the people who cast their ballot were black.  Finally, Hillary's loss of 7 points with black voters versus Obama's results in 2012 equates to a total of about 1.1 million votes lost...which, needless to say, was more than enough to swing an election that was determined by a few thousand votes in a couple of key states.

But a small uptick in support for Trump vs. Romney combined with less support for Clinton means that Obama’s 87-point margin became an 80-point margin for Clinton. That mattered.


Notice, too, that exit polling suggests a decrease in how much of the electorate was black in 2016. The Census Bureau collects data on that, too, which the University of Florida’s Michael McDonald used to estimate turnout percentages and composition of the electorate for the past 30 years.


In 2016, the turnout rate for black Americans dropped about 8 points, McDonald estimates — meaning that 8 percent fewer black Americans who were registered to vote came out to cast a ballot. That’s a lower rate than in 2004. The percentage of white voters turning out increased slightly.

While we haven't had a chance to read it yet, we're gonna go out on a limb and bet that none of this actual data from Wapo made it into Hillary's latest book.


Dormouse SWRichmond Mon, 09/25/2017 - 20:36 Permalink

She should come right and blame the Blacks, like she has everyone else. Tell them to their faces that THEY are ultimately responsible for her defeat. This will surely win them back and solidify them for her run in 2020. If there's any demographic that likes cold, hard truth thrust in their faces—it's Blacks.
You know, "keeping it real."
(Real Dumb)

In reply to by SWRichmond

847328_3527 Dormouse Mon, 09/25/2017 - 20:42 Permalink

Almost all the black men I work with voted for Trump. When I asked why they said Hillary was more of the same like Bush and do-nothing Obama. Plus, many said she was too corrupt. Despite what we see on MSM and the traitors at the NFL, many if not most blacks are still solid Chrisitans who respect the Church, God and our country. And I am very happy I work alongside men like that.

In reply to by Dormouse

motoXdude Mon, 09/25/2017 - 19:53 Permalink

I'm an ANGRY WHITE XENOPHOBIC WHITE MAN!  How DARE you Deprive me of my GLORY!   I thought I WAS THE ONE that got the Pant-Suited old Prune to lose!  And yes, I have XENOPHOBIC phones made in Korea!   They just always break once you've paid them off!  So that makes me a Xenophobe, right?  Or was I thinking Zenith?  Time to refresh my Gin and Tonic!  Damned Xeno phone is dead so might as well party!  Either way the CREATURE LOST... that's comfort in my book!

Killdo Gaius Frakkin'… Tue, 09/26/2017 - 00:23 Permalink

I came back from Argentina today after 2 weeks. It's always interesting to see (like in Serbia) white kids in schools (in San Francisco it's very rare that I see a white kid in any of the few schools close to where I live on Russian Hill). In Argentina all the kids I saw were white and everyone has kids (unlike in the US where most of my friends don't even want to have kids at all)Actually everyone was white - not just kids. I've seen maybe 5 or so black men and one very good looking black girl. Maybe 5 or so Chinese - everyone else was white like when I was a kid in Serbia (even now). I love my chinese, Black etc friends but I can't help noticing how much happier people are when they live surrounded with similar looking people - we evolved in small groups of similar people over millions of yearsthe only reason we have such an incompatible mix of people in the US / UK was to do with greedy psychopathic crony capitalists and slave-owners wanting to lower the wages of the locals

In reply to by Gaius Frakkin'…

847328_3527 Tallest Skil Mon, 09/25/2017 - 20:46 Permalink

Whitey will hav eto sit oin the back of the bus until our nation becomes color-blind. Remove the "Race" and "Gender" boxes off job applications and college admission apllications if BLM desperately wants all of us to be equally treated?Jerry Brown is such a far left racist he has even broken down the "Asian" cateogy into tiny boxes so Cali gubmint and colleges can discriminate against some Asians (like Chinese) and hand special benefits and privileges to others (like Filipinos and Indonesians).Where's the outrage about that?!

In reply to by Tallest Skil

Endgame Napoleon GeezerGeek Mon, 09/25/2017 - 20:35 Permalink

It is in the same lowly place as so-called "white privilege" in the South, where maps show Hillary's popularity with Black voters, but do not show the 80 to 90% Black-dominated workforces in many government agencies and in a ton of almost-all-Black corporate call center jobs, too.

I am not surprised, however, that Black voters in the industry-robbed states that lost so many jobs to offshoring voted for Trump or, at least, stayed home on voting day, neglecting to see NAFTA Bill's wife as a great alternative, not that Obama's policy on globalist trade was any different for the U.S. middle class. But the Clinton's are associated with making the original decisions that offshored the U.S. middle class.

The South lost many factory jobs to Mexico, with the Mexican maquiladoras losing those jobs when American corporations discovered the thirty-cent-per-hour labor in China. The resentment may be less pronounced in the South, whether you are talking about white or Black Southerners. Because, before going to Mexico, factory production moved to the non-unionized South from the high-wage, unionized Rust Belt and the North. When the South lost factory jobs to Mexico, it was losing minimum-wage jobs, whereas Rust Belt Black and white citizens lost quality jobs to the South....then to Mexico....then to China.

In reply to by GeezerGeek

Master Toms Dog Mon, 09/25/2017 - 19:50 Permalink

OT:  I just noticed something creepy.  When I log in with my other account (and pretend to be human), I see radically different posts in this thread:… anyone with multiple accounts verify?  Is the NSA messing with us?  Or does ZeroHedge "bin" us for some reason?{One easy indicator:  one version has many long posts by honestann starting around page 10 or so; these don't appear in the other}