US Economic Data Has Never Done This Before

While 'hope'-strewn survey data (see today's Chicago PMI) are staging a self-reinforcing resurgence in the last week or two, 'hard' economic data (that doesn't rely on the emotional responses of humans) has collapsed to its weakest since Feb 2009.

This is the 6th monthly drop in 'hard' economic data in a row, something that has never happened before, pushing the spread between 'hope' and 'reality' to a record high.

 

Of course, for now, stocks and 'soft' survey data remain locked in a tight mutually reinforcing uptrend of hope - ignoring reality...