Investors "Most Euphoric" In 23 Years Despite Korea, Crap Data, Crude Crash, & Coming Storms

The market...

 

Trannies ended the week lower (first down-week in 7 weeks), Dow outperformed on the week (4th week up in a row)... The S&P record-high streak is over...

 

Nasdaq managed to close in the green and a new record high today...

 

Investors have not been this 'euphoric' of the S&P 500 since 1994...

 

VIX and the S&P were both higher on the week for the first time since February...

 

VIX was pumped and dumped again in a desperate effort to get the S&P green and to a new record high for the 7th day in a row... (NOTE its the 8th day in a row that stocks ramped after Europe closed)

Just look at VIX at the close!

 

Notably Russell 2000 and its implied vol remain seriously decoupled...

 

But, uncertainty about VIX (VVIX) has never been higher relative to the uber-complacent level of VIX...

 

Energy and Retailers were the week's laggards as Financials and tech led...

 

As 'hard' economic data has collapsed (not the soft survey data), so high-tax companies have soared (and yet we are told that tax reform is 'not priced in')...

 

Walgreens and CVS were AMZN'd...

 

FANG Stocks had their 2nd best week in 3 months, ending at record highs...

 

"high-tax" companies are dramatically underperforming the market since trump unveiled his tax plan...

 

Bank stocks recoupled with the flatter yield curve post-FOMC midweek, but then decoupled again the last 2 days...

 

Treasury yields ended the week higher with some serious volatility today...

 

With yields spiking on the poor payrolls data (hawkish on the earnings data) but then North Korean headlines spooked them lower...

 

As rate-hike odds for December hit 80%...

 

The Dollar Index rose for the 4th straight week (longest streak since Oct 2016)...

 

Bitcoin rallied for the 2nd week in a row...but was notably less volatile this week...

 

Crude crashed almost 5% this week - the worst week in 5 months, ending back below $50 (and below its 200DMA). Gasoline fell for the 2nd week in a row...

 

While gold spiked today in North Korea headlines it remained lower on the week (4th weekly drop in a row - longest streak since Dec). Silver managed to scramble back into the green for the week today...

 

Finally, we note that the market's most important driver - central bank liquidity - has tumbled in the last month, but the most since Nov...

 

Which does not bode well for stocks...

Comments

AllStarInvestor Fri, 10/06/2017 - 16:08 Permalink

consensus that today was a follow-on move to the unfounded assumption that tax reform/cuts were just passed - tax reform is likely to go the way of healthcare reform (i.e. not at all or to take years), but investors have no memory, and they're listening to Warren Buffet Et al. telling them to buy equities at any price so long as rates stay low - it's a low-IQ world.

D.r. Funk Fri, 10/06/2017 - 16:11 Permalink

HAHA no triple digitNo weekend surge I would look for another nk event or Mueller-Russia development based on what theyre doing with vix 

illuminatus Fri, 10/06/2017 - 16:17 Permalink

Old saying goes that when interest rates are low, stocks will grow. The big boys know central banks are buying stocks, soooo fundamentals don't matter anymore.

P Christmas Carole Fri, 10/06/2017 - 16:19 Permalink

Investors most euphoric. Zerohedge most bearish.  INTERESTING.  As I can tell the only one knowing the market fluctuations is Shepwave.   one with a proven record anyway. The rest is guesswork.  YO!

DennisR Fri, 10/06/2017 - 17:20 Permalink

US borrows money. Fed loans money. Fed needs to offset on balance sheet. Fed prints money. Fed buys stock indexes and individual stocks which further their One World Government philosophy. Repeat.