A few weeks ago we noted that New York's 'smart money' at a variety of U.S. banking institutions were tripping over each other to underwrite dividend recaps for owners of expensive commercial real estate projects just as buyers of those properties suddenly dried up completely (see: NYC Commercial Real Estate Sales Plunge Over 50% As Owners Lever Up In The Absence Of Buyers). But we're sure it was nothing...the 27-year-old analysts leading those bank deals, fully syndicated deals in which their respective employers will retain no risk by the way, probably just know more about the commercial real estate market than those who count themselves among the list of former prospective buyers.
Still, it does seem odd that the commercial real estate market in NYC is collapsing at the same time that residential foreclosures are surging to levels not seen since the 2009 crisis. As Property Shark points out today, foreclosures across NYC surged 79% YoY in Q3 2017, to 859, and remain at the highest levels since the 'great recession.'
All 5 boroughs registered increases in the number of homes scheduled for auction, though Staten Island, the Bronx, and Brooklyn saw numbers skyrocket compared to Q3 2016, up 264%, 145% and 118%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the eastern neighborhoods of Brooklyn and the Bronx seem to be the most impacted as Staten Island foreclosures are rising fairly uniformly.
And here is a more in-depth look at the individual boroughs...
A record-high number of homes were scheduled for auction in Q3 2017, representing a 145% increase compared to Q3 2016. The number of cases in the Bronx kept relatively at the same levels for the past quarters with a spike in Q2 2016 but otherwise hovering around 100 homes per quarter or even lower than that. Back in the second quarter, the Bronx was the only borough that recorded a year-over-year decrease in foreclosure activity. The situation changed drastically in Q3 2017 when 247 homes were scheduled for the first time.
Zip code 10469 had the highest number of new foreclosures: 32 homes were scheduled here in Q3 2017. Not far behind, zip codes 10462, 10473, 10466, and 10465 all had close to 30 new cases each, showing a concentration of foreclosure activity in the eastern half of the borough. The graph below captures the evolution in the number of cases and the spike recorded this previous quarter.
While compared to the previous quarter’s count of 264 homes scheduled for auction, Q3 2017 seems to have brought some respite for Brooklyn, the number of homes headed for auction is still high. Q3 2017 brought a 118% year-over-year jump, given that 205 homes were headed for the auction block. When looking at Q3 2016, only 94 new foreclosures were recorded in the borough.
Zip code 11236, covering Canarsie, had the most cases filed – 31 homeowners here saw their homes scheduled to be auctioned in Q3 2017. East NY, Canarsie, and the Flatlands are usually the scene for the highest number of cases in Brooklyn, but this time we noticed increases in Southern Brooklyn zip codes as well. For example, in 11229 there were only 4 first-time foreclosures in Q3 2016, compared to 15 in Q3 2017. Bed-Stuy’s 11233 also recorded a jump in cases from 2 in Q3 2016 to 10 in Q3 2017.
The first three quarters of 2017 were particularly harsh for Brooklyn homeowners, especially compared to the numbers we tracked over the past years. While in 2016 there were a total of 410 homes scheduled for auction in the borough, with only 3 quarters elapsed from 2017, there have already been 637 new foreclosures. Check out the graph below for a detailed, by-quarter evolution of first-time foreclosures in Brooklyn.
Historically, Staten Island had low numbers of homes heading for the auction block, but the second quarter of 2017 brought a record-high number: 105 first-time foreclosures were scheduled. In Q3 2017, the number went down 24% quarter-over-quarter, but it was up 246% year-over-year. That’s also due to the fact that Q3 2016 only had 22 cases, which was low even for what we’re used to seeing each quarter in Staten Island.
Back in Q3 2016, Queens accounted for almost half of new foreclosure cases in NYC, as 227 of the 481 new foreclosures in the city were recorded in Queens . The first two quarters of 2017 brought a high number of cases with a peak in Q2. In the third quarter of 2017, however, foreclosures in Queens dropped 26% quarter-over-quarter and settled in at 288 cases.
Though still up 27% compared to Q3 2016, Queens is now far from having around half of all NYC cases, mainly as a result of the increases recorded in Brooklyn and the Bronx. In Q3 2017, the number of new foreclosures in each of the two boroughs was close to reaching the one recorded in Queens.
Queens also used to be home to the top zip code by number of foreclosures – Jamaica’s 11434 consistently had a high number of cases each quarter. This time, there were 29 first-time foreclosures in 11434, fewer than the numbers recorded in the top zip codes for both Brooklyn and the Bronx.
Not surprisingly, the only folks that haven't experienced a surge in foreclosures are the bankers and hedgies living in Manhattan who continue to benefit from bubbly markets growing bubblier by the day...at least for now.