"Black Swan" Anxiety Has Never Been Higher

The Fed's Williams warns that they "don't want there to be excesses in financial markets... "

Two quick things...

The market has almost never been this expensive...

As Peter Boockvar warns: "Almost there. S&P 500 price to sales ratio is just 4% from March 2000 peak."

And investors have never been more concerned about 'black swans'...

As Bloomberg notes, concern is building that years of record-setting gains for U.S. stocks may give way to a market plunge, according to Jim Paulsen, Leuthold Group Inc.’s chief investment strategist. In a report Monday, he cited the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s SKEW Index, which shows the perceived risk for a so-called black-swan event that’s reflected in S&P 500 Index option prices.

Trade accordingly...

Comments

Paul Kersey Giant Meteor Wed, 10/11/2017 - 21:12 Permalink

The world that best describes the theory behind a "black swan" is ergodicity.

" ergodic. 1 :of or relating to a process in which every sequence or sizable sample is equally representative of the whole (as in regard to a statistical parameter) 2 :involving or relating to the probability that any state will recur; especially :having zero probability that any state will never recur."

In reply to by Giant Meteor

covfefe MICdotard Paul Kersey Wed, 10/11/2017 - 22:00 Permalink

I am capable of empathy. But I really can't do anything about it. I don't think I'm being an asshole by saying that, let's say the hurricanes never occurred, and instead, a tornado came & blew my home off the map. I wouldn't expect anything but casual empathy from Houstonians, Floridians, or Puerto Ricans. You can take this to any degree you want. - I wasn't born racist- I wasn't a plantation owner (hence, had nothing to do with slavery, or even killing Indians)- You can try all you want to 'claim' I'm a beneficiary of white priviledge, but you could equally say that I've lived my entire adult life where the quota system of affirmative action precluded me from countless opportunities, and hence, made me earn everything on my own. They're all too happy to remain silent on that one. So why am I supposed to care about 'BLM' movements? What compels me to lift a finger? FFS ~ It's bad enough  that I have to listen to 'fake news' all day long and hear the incessant whining from every fringe group out there all pointing their fingers at me. And even if I move farther and farther away from that grid, & politely ask to leave me alone. That's not good enough because they seem hell bent on bring it to your doorstep.

In reply to by Paul Kersey

covfefe MICdotard Paul Kersey Thu, 10/12/2017 - 02:50 Permalink

All I was trying to do was make a joke by putting these fancy words like 'insouciant' and 'ergodicity', that you'll probably never see anywhere except for ZH, into a single sentence. I wouldn't describe my latter comment as being 'triggered'. But your comment seemed to imply that my 'insouciance' remark was somehow tied to to the hurricane victims (& not simply tied to the word 'ergodicity' itself, which is all it was).

In reply to by Paul Kersey

Richard640 NoDebt Wed, 10/11/2017 - 23:19 Permalink

BUT THE WOLF ACTUALLY IS AT THE DOOR THIS TIME...after 8 yrs. of crying wolf, no one believes HE is here... The end is nigh, brother, the end is nigh!  World markets are like a pie crust stretched across the roof of a volcano! Fu Manchu is about to pull the lever to the trap door! Warbucks signals the trusty  Punjab to cut the cords of the rope bridge!  Grease the skids! Happy tobogganing!

In reply to by NoDebt

LetThemEatRand Wed, 10/11/2017 - 21:06 Permalink

I predicted that Trump had until September before the Fed pulled out the rug, using the 9/11 time-line to predict when TPTB would feel comfortable blaming the new guy.  I was wrong.  Maybe like the Kardashians, big fat ugly bubbles are here to stay.

Giant Meteor LetThemEatRand Wed, 10/11/2017 - 21:18 Permalink

Apparently Steve Bannon is giving the don a whopping 30% chance of going the distance on his first term? I'd say there is plenty enough black swan material to keep everyone guessing as to timelines. Oh, and apparently the FED IS the rug ..  , and underneath that rug lies a shit ton of dirt!I've got a few scant weeks before my predictive timeline is blown ...

In reply to by LetThemEatRand

Thebighouse Wed, 10/11/2017 - 21:21 Permalink

And Black Swan....how racially insensitive....If you watch stupid swan in the wild, the black swan gets hammered incessantly.  I wonder if a male and female black swan ever got together and madechildren  that were not slaves to the other swan......oh....I laid an egg.....Bitcoin is an amazing phenomenon of easy money......If money were valued, would you give it away for an electronic number???????   And then have that number's value in your precious dollars.,,,,,go through the roof,,,many times over?   Nope.........alllllll frickin toilet paper.I like the numbers the Japs use........trilllions and quadrillions.........now that is sum-ting to get a handle on.

Father ¢hristmas Wed, 10/11/2017 - 21:21 Permalink

Black swan anxiety has never been higher because asset inflation has never been higher.Look, motherfucker, either give your shitkickers something to trade or let it the fuck go.

Fantasy Free E… Wed, 10/11/2017 - 21:24 Permalink

Just a reminder, this time it really is different. http://quillian.net/blog/why-the-stock-market-always-goes-up/ Today's market is managed with unearned money. Investors are not responsible for driving the market up. It is a political happening. Americans are suspicious but are still clueless that they are being fleeced. For the market to collapse the entire system must fail or the political situation must change. It doesn't matter what traders think or do.  

Identify as Ferengi Wed, 10/11/2017 - 21:50 Permalink

NoDebt said it at the top...... Harshing my mellow man.
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Plenty of opportunities for profit, if I just had a crystal ball, Ouija board or sooth-sayer to know when to pull the trigger.

Dragon HAwk Wed, 10/11/2017 - 22:25 Permalink

I love historical charts that make it look like even if it goes down  it will go right back up like all the other times.. believe me this time it WILL be different