Steve Bannon Believes Trump Has 30% Chance Of Finishing His Term

Gabriel Sherman, the former New York Magazine journalist whose reporting helped topple former Fox News chief Roger Ailes, has published a wide-ranging piece in Vanity Fair where he says private grumblings of senior administration officials are spilling out into the open as Trump's behavior has grown more erractic, and that many of the administration's key players are close to a breaking point.

Sherman begins his piece by claiming that Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker’s infamous interview with the New York Times, where he reportedly fretted that Trump would start “World War III” and compared the White House to “adult daycare” represents an inflection point in the Trump presidency. The interview, Sherman claims, “brought into the open what several people close to the president have recently told me in private: that Trump is “unstable,” “losing a step,” and “unraveling.”

Kelly is reportedly miserable, but is refusing to quit out of a sense of duty to try and keep Trump from making a disastrous decision like ordering a preemptive nuclear strike on North Korea. According to Sherman's sources, Kelly and Secretary of Defense James Mattis have discussed what they would do if Trump ordered a nuclear strike...

According to two sources familiar with the conversation, Trump vented to his longtime security chief, Keith Schiller, “I hate everyone in the White House! There are a few exceptions, but I hate them!” (A White House official denies this.) Two senior Republican officials said Chief of Staff John Kelly is miserable in his job and is remaining out of a sense of duty to keep Trump from making some sort of disastrous decision. Today, speculation about Kelly’s future increased after Politico reported that Kelly’s deputy Kirstjen Nielsen is likely to be named Homeland Security Secretary—the theory among some Republicans is that Kelly wanted to give her a soft landing before his departure.


One former official even speculated that Kelly and Secretary of Defense James Mattis have discussed what they would do in the event Trump ordered a nuclear first strike. “Would they tackle him?” the person said. Even Trump’s most loyal backers are sowing public doubts. This morning, The Washington Post quoted longtime Trump friend Tom Barrack saying he has been “shocked” and “stunned” by Trump’s behavior.

But perhaps the most alarming claim in Sherman’s report is that Steve Bannon believes Trump only has a 30% chance of finishing out his first term. And furthermore, the biggest threat to Trump’s presidency isn’t impeachment, but a provision of the twenty-fifth amendment that would allow his cabinet members to exercise emergency measures to remove him from office.

Even before Corker’s remarks, some West Wing advisers were worried that Trump’s behavior could cause the Cabinet to take extraordinary Constitutional measures to remove him from office. Several months ago, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversation, former chief strategist Steve Bannon told Trump that the risk to his presidency wasn’t impeachment, but the 25th Amendment—the provision by which a majority of the Cabinet can vote to remove the president. When Bannon mentioned the 25th Amendment, Trump said, “What’s that?” According to a source, Bannon has told people he thinks Trump has only a 30 percent chance of making it the full term.

For what it’s worth, odds that Trump will be impeached before the end of his first term have been more or less steady around 35% for the past three months. Though PredictIt doesn’t have odds for whether the twenty fifth amendment will be invoked before the end of Trump’s first term.

If Breitbart's coverage is any indication, a rift between Trump and Bannon that erupted when the former supported the doomed candidacy of Republican Senator Luther Strange in a runoff primary vote against former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, who won the primary and will likely go on to replace Strange as the senator holding AG Jeff Session's old seat.

But that doesn’t make Bannon’s remarks - if the report is accurate - any less disconcerting.


vato poco AllTimeWhys Wed, 10/11/2017 - 18:28 Permalink

what are the odds we're gonna see a whole lot more of those tired old bullshit 'Trump gonna quit!' 'Staffers gonna mutiny!' 'Congress gonna impeach!' stories? as predictable as sunrise: any news that makes dems/media (same thing) look bad - or especially news that might make people think about dem/media pedophilia rings - gets chased off the papers/airwaves/new and improved ZH ("now with hundreds of Sorosbot commenters!") quick like a bunny

In reply to by AllTimeWhys

SDShack vato poco Wed, 10/11/2017 - 18:58 Permalink

Yep, it was just like the campaign in 2016. Every month at least there was some breathless whispered story from some anonymous inside source that was saying Trump was about to quit because of the latest scandal. Just fill in the blank, rinse and repeat. It became so absurd that it spawned the moniker "Fake News". All these shitholes have left is to just keep throwing their shit from their holes at the wall to see if it sticks. The problem is that it is sticking... sticking to the very shitholes that spew it, as well as their hands as they throw it. Should be relabed "Shit News" instead of "Fake News" because that is what it has become.

In reply to by vato poco

Gaius Petronius vato poco Wed, 10/11/2017 - 19:48 Permalink

I don't believe anything from the mainstream media that is anonymously sourced.  I don't believe this article in Vanity Fair either.  It requires that I trust the credibility of the journalist who wrote it, and I flat out don't trust them at all.  I don't care if he claims that he's got 37 collaborating witnesses.  It's still a claim that requires that I take on faith what he is claiming to be true is true.  If the media doesn't have someone on record saying it, I think they are lying.  Vanity Fair should get Steven Bannon on record saying that he said that or believes that Trump has a 30% chance.  Then, I'll believe that one aspect of the story, but nothing else about it.  I don't trust the press.

In reply to by vato poco

mkkby Never One Roach Thu, 10/12/2017 - 04:15 Permalink

It's everybody red, blue and the media against Trump. They own politics in America and they'll do anything they can to stay on top.

Nothing can be believed. Certainly not Bannon, who has always looked and sounded like a used up alcoholic. I predicted he would go on the attack shortly after being fired.

He thinks his pitiful little web site is important, but it's just another shrill voice competing for google ad revenue.

In reply to by Never One Roach

nevertheless Wed, 10/11/2017 - 17:26 Permalink

I give it a 100% chance that while Bannon and comp keep us focused on more stupid shit, Trump will give amnesty to 40 millions illegals, and end America as we know it. 

serotonindumptruck Wed, 10/11/2017 - 17:26 Permalink

Sorry, Steve.You've been pushed out of the inner circle.Throwing a temper tantrum while you seek to redeem your reputation just doesn't cut the mustard.If you are trying to launch a political coup against Washington DC, well then, maybe someone will have a positive reaction to your antics.

LynchThe Feder… Wed, 10/11/2017 - 17:27 Permalink

Who cares about that. What are the odds that Bannon is going to get that skin condition cleared up? Is that Ebola he has, an STD, or leprosy? He should be forced to wear a bag over his head. No one can look at that face. Even Trump had enough. It looks like he vomited on his own face.