RBOB Sinks After Surprise Build, WTI Bounces On Biggest Production Drop In 2 Years

WTI/RBOB have extended their post-API (crude build) losses overnight (not helped by IEA forecasts indicating the oil-inventory decline will halt in 2018). However, DOE data perfectly contradicted the API data with a big crude draw and big gasoline build. WTI bounced a little (helped by the biggest production cut since September 2015) and RBOB slumped.



  • Crude +3.1mm (-2.4mm exp)
  • Cushing +1.216mm - 8th weekly build in a row
  • Gasoline -1.575mm (+200k exp)
  • Distillates +2.029mm - biggest in 5 months


  • Crude -2.75mm (-2.4mm exp)
  • Cushing +1.322mm - 8th weekly build in a row
  • Gasoline +2.49mm  (+200k exp)
  • Distillates -1.48mm

Perfectly contradicting what API said last night, DOE seees a big crude draw and gasoline build...


Distillates inventories tumbled below their 5y average as exports soared to a record high...


Production in the Lower 48 tumbled...

This was the biggest production drop since September 2015 (ex the Hurricane plunge)


WTI/RBOB prices slid overnight after the API data and were fading into the DOE release. RBOB extended its losses on the gasoline build and WTI bounced...

“It’s a combination of firstly the API last night which gave it the first little knock and then the IEA monthly report which has raised a few eyebrows that we won’t see the rebalancing continue into next year,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank.

How's the re-balance going? Total crude and product commercial inventories slipped a bit lower but, at 1.29 billion, barrels are still almost 140 million above the five-year average.


M O B Thu, 10/12/2017 - 11:22 Permalink

The product "cut" was still hurricane related. Crews got pulled off of rigs in anticipation of the last one, but then it swerved and was downgraded.

LawsofPhysics Thu, 10/12/2017 - 12:23 Permalink

LOL!!!Taking about "prices" in the absence of a mechanism for true price discovery is a fool's errand.No worries, if the average 'merican cannot afford food or fuel, I am sure your government "representatives" in D.C. will be happy to sell it to the Chinese..."Full Faith and Credit"

gdpetti Thu, 10/12/2017 - 15:03 Permalink

Surely, no one really thinks any of this data is real, right? It's as bad as the rest of the govt contrived, manipulated data... from inflation to jobs etc. Some meant for PR, others for manipulated trading purposes. They've been doing this  for quite some time, the pattern is obvious, no?