Theresa May's Government Fears Imminent Collapse Of Brexit Negotiations

Following Theresa May’s dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels, we have a promise that both sides are committed to accelerating Brexit negotiations…except nobody actually believes that.

Apart from the “bear hug” that Juncker gave Britain’s Brexit Secretary, David Davis, as they went their separate ways, there is no evidence that relations are any more cordial, or that any tangible progress was made in breaking the deadlock.

Rather than no progress, however, Bloomberg is reporting that the UK government sees the potential for the negotiations to collapse after this week’s EU Summit. “U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government fears Brexit talks will break down unless the European Union gives ground at a key summit this week, according to a person familiar with her team’s views. Without a clear sign that negotiations will progress to trade and transition arrangements by December at Thursday’s summit of EU leaders, the entire Brexit process will be in danger of collapse.”

Mrs May made a telephone call on Sunday to the one person, Merkel, who could have softened the EU’s stance ahead of the dinner. Consequently, we were not surprised to learn that now “senior British ministers are losing faith in the EU’s willingness to strike a deal, the person said.”

As we’ve said before, it still boils down to money and the EU is not shifting until the two sides can agree on a number.

The growing problem for Mrs May is that she now has little room to maneuver due to the weakness of her own position. The source in Mrs May’s team told Bloomberg “May took a political risk by promising to pay into the EU budget and settle the divorce bill in a speech in Florence, Italy, last month and now needs something in return for before she can make concessions.”

So…the stand-off continues, with the EU contingent staying confident that they have far more to gain at this point.  “German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron are the two key obstacles to allowing talks to move on trade, according to the first official. Germany has a vested interest in delaying the progress in the Brexit talks because Frankfurt is trying to tempt companies away from London, the person said.”

You can throw in Paris, Amsterdam and Dublin as beneficiaries too…just as long as the deeply embedded structural problems in European banks don’t suddenly flare up again.


Haus-Targaryen ludwigvmises Tue, 10/17/2017 - 06:18 Permalink

While the guy is right:<<<“Brexit will be very bad for people with a normal income,” says Hintz, an owner of the 37-year-old Karl Marx bookshop >>>Seriously fuck anyone who names their bookshop "Karl Marx". Also, for the city and those working in the financial services industries, as well as property owners and landlords, this is a gift. Don't speak for all of Frankfurt, because some dried-up Linke voter says its bad. 

In reply to by ludwigvmises

EddieLomax css1971 Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:13 Permalink

The only problem here is the faith Theresa May and the other remainers have that a large centrally planned government (the EU) is a source of prosperity.If they were smart then they would pretend to fold at this point, promise a humungous sum of cash, wait for the markets to come around to accepting it, pile on impossible demands to the EU and finally walk away.They can then "cut" their debts and promise to replace any lost money in the UK for the short term.  Meanwhile the EU would only be left with an unpaid bill, in other words no good news they can spin.

In reply to by css1971

Ghordius EddieLomax Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:41 Permalink

that's a foreign, unrelated talking point that can't be applied to the EUdefine that "large centrally planned government".spending?the EU spends... 1% of the GDP of the 28 members. individual, sovereign members spend... from 40% to 50% of their countries' GDPbureaucrats?the EU org has 30'000 civil servants. the individual medium sized members have millions of themthe EU has some 30 agencies... which result in a cost-sharing exercise, which results in a cheaper solution to each sovereign member having it's ownthe UK has hired 2'000 new bureaucrats... just for the "Department for Exiting the EU"yes, we have large central governments. London has one, Paris has one, Berlin has one, Rome has one... etc. etc.

In reply to by EddieLomax

Ghordius Tue, 10/17/2017 - 06:22 Permalink

the UK, in general, and the UK gov, specifically, still "don't get it"both Leavers and Remainers are tied into their specific British only talking points, and they are still only negotiating among themselvesmeanwhile, the whole continental press is practically ignoring all this. and the Irish press... no Brit ever ventures there, to read what the Irish think/write about all thisthe EU27 line is blindingly simple, obvious and straightforward... but not for the Britsthe UK gov has stated that it does not want to be further in the "Single Market" and the Customs Unionfine. this means Brexit in the sense of "Ground Zero", of "No Deal"and this leads to the 3 Questions: A) what about the Irish border, B) what about citizen rights and C) what about existing committmentsthat C) is not even a sum. it's the question: what existing programs/committments are you going to settle/continue?and the EU27 position is crystal clear: first a clean Brexit: settle the past, settle the "zero" new status quo. and then we might talk about the future

Haus-Targaryen Ghordius Tue, 10/17/2017 - 06:28 Permalink

I wish May would just get up and walk away from the table, and use WTO rules. EU wants to play hardball, then the EU gets to learn what it means to have a "trade deficit" with someone who has the ability to print their own currency. Then again, I approach this issue pragmatically ... what could May do to best sabotage the EU and the euro? 

In reply to by Ghordius

Ghordius Haus-Targaryen Tue, 10/17/2017 - 06:34 Permalink

WTO Rules? the UK and the EU27 just reached a tentative split arrangement on agri products for the WTO arrangementsthe response by WTO partners like the US, Australia, New Zealand was... soberingled by the US Agri-Biz Lobby, they said: "whatever, the UK is a WTO member but... we have to re-negotiate everything"now, who do you think can re-negotiate better? the UK or the far bigger trade bloc?

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

Haus-Targaryen Ghordius Tue, 10/17/2017 - 06:38 Permalink

Given the block is dependent on exports and the block has an export deficit with the UK, and if the exports stop the ability for the block to remain a block ceases ... the UK has the better position, and thus could "negotiate" better if they wanted to. May: "Listen Juncker, you give us X, Y and Z or we're going to blowup the euro as a currency and destroy the EU by extension. " Juncker: "Another drink, madame?" May has no balls (figuratively of course) and doesn't want to go nuclear on him, for reasons that remain a mystery to me.  I imagine it has something to do with this "unity" bullshit the EU bangs on about constantly. 

In reply to by Ghordius

Ghordius Haus-Targaryen Tue, 10/17/2017 - 06:46 Permalink

I'm not sure what you mean with "export deficit". are you sure you don't mean a surplus?the usual Brexiter line is "they sell to us more then what we sell to them", leading to the "they need us more then we need them" lineanyway, reading around I encountered this example in a comment elsewhere:a mastiff and an elephant fight. the mastiff loses two pints of blood, the elephant loses four pints of bloodleading to: the elephant loses more blood then the mastiff, hence the mastiff... "wins", or "the elephant will back off from the fight"

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

Sandmann Ghordius Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:15 Permalink

You are insane Ghordius with that example. I support BreXit because it is the ONLY way to reduce the UK Trade Deficit. If the Uk cuts the Trade Deficit it will create domestic jobs and raise the value of Sterling. UK is I believe the world's largest food importer - it does not need to be. It could build polytunnels and lasshouses as in Netherlands (subsidized) and grow its own horticultural products

In reply to by Ghordius

Ghordius Sandmann Tue, 10/17/2017 - 08:23 Permalink

it wasn't my example, and I stated soif I understand your argument, you are advocating a more protectionistic future for the UK, particularly for agriculturefine. is that the line that the UK gov is using?I am not the only one that understood that "Global Britain" as "more open, more free trade with everybody"as a reminder, Boris Johnson, the UK's Foreign Minister, has a quip: "Greater Singapore". what does he mean by that?

In reply to by Sandmann

Sandmann Ghordius Tue, 10/17/2017 - 08:49 Permalink

No greater self-sufficiency. I have never understood why mushrooms are imported from Poland by truck. Why do cucumbers need to come from Netherlands ? Why should apples come from Poland or France ? Who needs runner beans from Kenya ?  Pork from Germany is a farce. Eggs from Italy.UK can produce far higher quality pork in N Yorkshire and Wiltshire than Germany manages or even Ridpath the Chinese producer in Poland. It is more than self-sufficient in lamb. It can grow potatoes cross Lincolnshire. It has far better beef than any country in Europe. It is simply that UNLIKE European supermarkets UK supermarkets have been sourcing without national preference.

In reply to by Ghordius

Rapunzal 07564111 Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:20 Permalink

All central banks work together, they work together to keep this sinking ship on course. All central banks devalue their currency, so the world citizens have not really a clue what happens to their purchasing power. For the central banks it's like a relay race. One is printing the next round another one takes over and prints on. I'm talking about the big boys. FED, ECB, BOJ, PBOC, BOE and the SNB. They are hiding the real inflation from the people. The BIS is organizing all this.

All wars are bankers wars.

In reply to by 07564111

Ghordius Haus-Targaryen Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:00 Permalink

and what happens to the Pound? how much, btw? more then 60 billion a month, what the ECB is doing as QE this very moment?never mind that the Bank of England is officially outside the UK gov's controlyou are suggesting to A) nearly destroy the value of the Pound and B) having a mastiff to fight an elephant, one pint of blood after the othernever mind that it's an insane suggestion. it's an impossible suggestion. you don't seem to be aware of the sizes of the contendents in this fantasy

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

Haus-Targaryen Ghordius Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:14 Permalink

Ghordo, you don't seem to understand my objectives, after all these years. The EU is making it apparent it wants to destroy the UK's economy outside of the EU. Its doing this for self-preservation purposes, just like they threw the Greeks under the bus.  No one can leave and be more successful than they were when they were in the EU. Why? The answer is obvious. Thus, from May's point of view -- she is sitting across the table from an entity that wants to destroy her economy, while she just wants an amicable divorce. Given this, she should call the EU's bluff and basically tell Juncker she'll turn the UK into a Kamikaze and while she'll destroy her own economy and currency, she'll also destroy the EU and the euro in the process. She basically needs to tell Juncker to give her what she wants or we all politically die. She doesn't want to do this, and thus she gives power to the EU that it needn't have and most definitely doesn't deserve. Lastly, we all know the BoE is as "unpolitical" as the ECB is. Don't give me this shtick. The BoE could pump-n-dump Spanish and Italian bonds, which would kill off the euro as well. See negative 30 year yields on Spanish and Italian debt and then flood the market with supply in a few nano-seconds and cause it to gap-down. The ECB would have no choice then step in and violate its own treaties to "stabilize" prices. The euro is the most vulnerable and frail currency in the world to external shocks. If Greece almost blew up the euro with everyone throwing in stupid amounts of cash trying to save it -- a militant foreign country with a printing press who is set on destroying the euro could do so if they wanted to. Thus, I think the Brexit negotiations are a farce. May doesn't want to exit and is just playing footsie with them and will at the end of the day give them everything they want. Death to the euro and the EU. 

In reply to by Ghordius

philipat Haus-Targaryen Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:25 Permalink

In a worst case scenario, the UK post-Brexit could simple set itsef up as a European offshore tax haven to compete with Ireland but with better financial infrastructure and capability. Especially if Ireland complies with the EU ruling and bills Comapnies for Billions of "unpaid taxes/ subsidies". That practise also still exists in Luxemburg BTW but since Mr Drunker became Head of the EC it seems, inexplicably, to have gone rather quiet even if very minor settlements have been ruled?

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

Haus-Targaryen philipat Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:32 Permalink

The Brits could expel continental EU banks from London, they could tariff the shit out of EU imports, they could turn themselves into a tax haven and handout free land and improved infrastructure to manufacturing. The list of how the the UK could royally fuck the EU is long and I am sure the English have such a list somewhere. No doubt it would be devastating for the UK as well, its akin the American Airlines (UK) vs Braniff (EU) price war of the 90s. AA cut prices to the point of hemorrhaging cash, ratings downgrades, material solvency issues, workers issues, etc., etc., because they knew they could last a few quarters longer doing this than Braniff could, and then they'd hike rates and buy Braniff assets for pennies on the dollar. Its exactly what happened.  AA turned into the US' largest airline and Braniff ceased to exist.  Do this except with currencies. Shoot, Jawboning seems to work so well for the ECB all May would have to do is give a speech saying she is dedicating all financial resources available to her to destroy the euro as a currency and I think that would do a ton of harm in and of itself.  

In reply to by philipat

philipat Haus-Targaryen Tue, 10/17/2017 - 06:59 Permalink

GhordEUs might like to explain WHERE in The Lisbon Treaty, or elsewhere, it defines why a departing member needs to pay extortion money to Brussels? I agree with HT, the UK should just walk away and revert to WTO Rules. The example he uses regarding Monsanto is, as usual, a red herring, It is insidious but still a red herring in the larger context.It's clear that if the UK is to Brexit (As voted for by the majority, which of course means little to Brussels) it CANNOT remain a member of the Customs Union and Single Market. All copy to the contrary is simply propoganda by the Bremainers. The country voted to LEAVE. Why can't they just get on with it without being blackmailed by Brussles? 

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

Ghordius philipat Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:08 Permalink

and, as usual, you troll me. I never wrote "Monsanto", and no, it's not "extortion money"I wrote about this: Trump opposes EU-UK WTO deal in blow to May's Brexit plansmeanwhile, the whole set of three questions is particularly valid if the UK leaves both the Customs Union and the Single Marketwhere is the border to be? what about citizens rights? and... do you leave all programs?if the UK gov plans to leave all programs, all agencies, all committments... it just has to say so. but it is keeping... numbhardly "blackmail". it's a question of the UK choosing what exactly it wants

In reply to by philipat

Ghordius philipat Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:24 Permalink

"...WHERE in The Lisbon Treaty, or elsewhere, it defines why a departing member needs to pay extortion money to Brussels?"nowhere. and, again, it's not "extortion money". it is questions about- which committments the UK wants to maintain. or not- which agencies the UK wants to continue to be member of. or not- which programs the UK wants to continue to be participant. or notit is a detailed, line per line approach to "what Brexit, exactly"starting with Nigel Farage's MEP pension to the European Medicines Agency to the nuclear waste arrangements, etc. etc. etc.

In reply to by philipat

philipat Ghordius Tue, 10/17/2017 - 08:19 Permalink

I see you brought in your little voting assistants again (according to the IP's) but I'm guessing that by the end of the night (my time) or day (your time) you will still be substantially net downvoted as usual. We'll see.And I wonder how you would be privy to such information if you are not, as you claim, an EU insider? As far as I am aware, that is not published information and I'm sure your Buddy Farage didn't volunteer it to you...Perhaps you might post a copy?

In reply to by Ghordius

Ghordius philipat Tue, 10/17/2017 - 09:18 Permalink

two items of trolling: that "GhordEUs" and putting words in my mouth. the latter is the hallmark of the troll, and you are doing it more often then usual, latelythe third is that "as usual, you ignored my... "argument"", as here, with a nice "selective dissonance" on topin short, you claim to be a retired CEO in Bali... while behaving like a 8-year old wannabe bully on the playground, in my eyesmy conclusion: you are a troll. because you engage in trolling behaviour

In reply to by philipat

kellys_eye Ghordius Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:32 Permalink

Citizens rights?  Fcuk off.  The British enjoy more 'rights' than anyone in the world and for any European to be concerned over how they might be treated under UK law post-Brexit is just rabid scaremongering.  EU citizens are under laws that state 'you can't do it unless it's explicity allowed' whereas British citizens are under laws that state 'do what you want unless it's specifically forbidden'.  I know which set of laws I prefer.The border?  Ireland?  The only people that 'object' are the tax-sucking Government of RO Ireland who fear losing trade to a more competetive, less burdened Northern Ireland.  If the ROI want to 'fence' their own population in to prevent that tax loss then let THEM explain it to THEIR public.  The Irish people aren't stupid.  If they see Northern Ireland prosper in a post Brexit world then they'll demand the same - precisely why the 'issue' of border control is being touted.Clearly - VERY clearly - the EU are on the back foot, close to being exposed to ALL for their scaremongering and the fact that a free UK will be a prosperous UK and show the EU to be the most corrosive and expensive waste of every Europeans income.The EU FEAR a free UK.

In reply to by Ghordius

Ghordius kellys_eye Tue, 10/17/2017 - 08:33 Permalink

I can give you an example, just a small oneif a Hungarian marries a Russian girl and lives in the UK, the UK gov can't deport the Russian... because of EU Lawif a British citizen marries a Russian girl... the UK gov can deport the Russian... because of British LawI know, difficult to believe. and yet, there it is. make a search and you'll find British newspaper articles with plenty of caseshere is one: Grandmother who has been married to Briton for 27-years is deported ... from the Telegraph

In reply to by kellys_eye

EddieLomax Ghordius Tue, 10/17/2017 - 07:35 Permalink

The UK's "sensitive market for farm products" - are you and the morons at MSM who wrote this for real?The UK has been about buying food cheaply since the corn laws were repealed in Jospeph Chamberlain's time.  Today we import a vast amount of food from Europe, tomorrow we would be very happy to import a vast amount from the US instead if it were cheaper.I have difficulties believing without seeing that the mainstream media can be this dumb, fake news is epidemic.

In reply to by Ghordius