Blood In The Streets? Storm-Savaged September Sees Home Sales Surge

Tumbling starts and permits data, and dismal new, pending, and existing home sales in August urged a rebound in September and existing home sales (amid massive storms) somehow managed to surge 0.7% MoM (smashing expectations of a 0.9% tumble).

  • Sales in the South remain low, likely due to effects of Hurricane Harvey and Irma.
  • Inventories continue to constrain the pace of existing home sales.
  • The supply of homes for sale rose 0.7% MOM but were down 1.7% YOY.

Trend reversal?

The 0.7% rise in September was driven by single-family homes rising 1.1% as rental unit sales dropped 1.6%.

Median sales price increased 4.2% YoY to $245,100.

However, it's not all shits ands giggles... Exisitng home sales dropped 1.5% YoY - the first decline since July 2016...

 

The South did see a 0.9% MoM decline in sales after a 5.7% plunge in August (as The West surged 3.3%)

September existing-home sales in the Northeast were at an annual rate of 720,000 (unchanged from August), and are now 1.4 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $274,100, which is 4.8 percent above September 2016.

 

In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 1.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.30 million in September, but are 1.5 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $195,800, up 5.4 percent from a year ago.

 

Existing-home sales in the South slipped 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 2.13 million in September, and are now 2.3 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the South was $215,100, up 4.6 percent from a year ago.

 

Existing-home sales in the West increased 3.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.24 million in September (unchanged from a year ago). The median price in the West was $362,700, up 5.0 percent from September 2016.

However, Houston home sales jumped 4%, as we assume speculative buyers swooped on the 'blood in the streets'!

“Home sales appear to be holding steady,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a press briefing accompanying the report. “The hurricane impact appears to be short-lived.”

“First-time buyers stepped back a bit,” he said, showing pricing increases that are outpacing income gains remain a constraint.

And then NAR takes a swing at Trump's Tax Plan..

“There's no way around the fact that any proposal that marginalizes the mortgage interest deduction and eliminates state and local tax deductions essentially disincentives homeownership and is a potential tax hike on millions of middle-class homeowners,” said Brown.

 

“Reforming the tax code is a worthy goal, but it should not lead to the middle class, who primarily build wealth through owning a home, footing the bill. Instead, Congress should be looking at ways to ensure more creditworthy prospective buyers are able to achieve homeownership and enjoy its personal and wealth-building benefits.”

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