American's Consumer Confidence Highest Since The Peak Of DotCom Bubble

The animal spirits among American consumers has not been this 'high' since the year 2000...

The only time in US history that confidence was this high... was the dotcom bubble... but it's different this time...


With the Mountain Region surging to Dec 1999 record highs...

“Consumer confidence increased to its highest level in almost 17 years (Dec. 2000, 128.6) in October after remaining relatively flat in September,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

“Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, boosted by the job market which had not received such favorable ratings since the summer of 2001. Consumers were also considerably more upbeat about the short-term outlook, with the prospect of improving business conditions as the primary driver.


Confidence remains high among consumers, and their expectations suggest the economy will continue expanding at a solid pace for the remainder of the year.”

Interestingly, consumers’ outlook for the job market, however, was somewhat less favorable than in September.

The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased marginally from 19.2 percent to 18.9 percent, however, those anticipating fewer jobs declined from 13.0 percent to 11.8 percent.

Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement decreased marginally from 20.5 percent to 20.3 percent, however, the proportion expecting a decrease declined from 8.6 percent to 7.4 percent.

However, not everyone is exuberant, while the rich have never been richer and more confident (green), the poor (income <$15k) are seeing confidence collapse to the lowest since Aug 2016...

The rich-poor divide in confidence has never been higher...


spastic_colon Tue, 10/31/2017 - 10:14 Permalink

as evidenced by the chart this has to be the stupidest measure around........grind grind higher and then fall off a this measures anything today is the last day of the month before the ram it up your ass rallies until the weekend.....ya know the ironically timed fed/aapl/fb/new fed chair/(your excuse here)

MuffDiver69 Tue, 10/31/2017 - 10:14 Permalink

Seems some people just won’t believe that a majority of people knew Obama was bad for the economy and know at minimum Trump is pro-business...It doesn’t fit the media narrative, so writers need to basically tell the American people they are stupid or something..It’s a tired act ZH...Just let it go and if polls don’t line up with your gloom and doom, then move on..You look petty trying to discredit what you don’t want to believe..Just report the stupid poll and the facts or move on..

Gaius Petronius MuffDiver69 Tue, 10/31/2017 - 10:36 Permalink

Yes Trump is pro business, but I think he may be screwed. This economy is f**ked up. None of the fundamentals make sense. Housing prices are distorted by excessively low interest rates. FAANG stocks go up and up and account for a large share of the overall increase in the market. Healthcare prices continue to increase, so fast that they are now doubling every 2-3 years according to the rule of 72. College tuition, room, and board are now 60,000 a year or more at most private colleges. Food prices keep going up. Automotive prices keep going up. Yet somehow, the government says inflation is a non-issue because your tv comes with wifi and your car has butt-warmers. The trillions the central banks funneled into the economy is distorting everything and is now the reason the economy is stagnate. The longer this drags on, the worse the medicine will be for everyone.

In reply to by MuffDiver69

Endgame Napoleon MuffDiver69 Tue, 10/31/2017 - 11:05 Permalink

Is this consumer-confidence measure determined through super-accurate polling, like the election polling that predicted a Hillary win, or is it determined by number of retail sales and the number of full-time, non-temporary jobs at wage levels sufficient to cover rent and all of the basics of living without the need for unearned, womb-productivity income, like welfare and child tax credits, from taxpayers?

In reply to by MuffDiver69

ghengiskhan Tue, 10/31/2017 - 10:16 Permalink

These are the same people that have two $600/month car payments and a $1500/month mortgage while both spouses make $16/hr and the kids dont eat since the credit cards are all maxed.  This generation proves we are rapidly devolving.

MisterMousePotato ghengiskhan Tue, 10/31/2017 - 13:42 Permalink

Probably a $1500/month lease/rental payment.If I may, it sounds as if you are denigrating a combined income of $32/hr.Sorry, but that is a fortune in the right hands.Yes, inadequate in other hands, but that fact is not a proper metric to value a family income of $32/hr. In fact, it says quite a bit less about the adequacy of a family income of $32/hr. than it does about the inadequacy of - oh, say - $64/hr or even $128/hr in such hands. 

In reply to by ghengiskhan

Rainman Tue, 10/31/2017 - 10:19 Permalink

A stroll down memory lane : ...The internet sector rose by more than 1,000 % between 1998 and 2000,..  price-earnings ratios hit levels never seen before.....the sector traded on 856 times earnings in 1999.

Pollygotacracker Tue, 10/31/2017 - 10:24 Permalink

The Fed is up against a rock and a hard place. They can continue on with QE to infinity, unleash the inflation they refuse to admit is already a reality, and burst the low rate bond bubble. Or, they can can end QE and ZIRP/NIRP and tank stocks. What is the exit strategy? Million dollar question.

AGuy Tue, 10/31/2017 - 10:24 Permalink

"Seems some people just won’t believe that a majority of people knew Obama was bad for the economy and know at minimum Trump is pro-business."

Its Consumer Credit expansion that is driving this. Its back to "if its breathing, give it a loan" type of economy. Consumer debt is now at an all time high.

"In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-1/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3-1/4 percent."

As long has consumers can borrow easy & cheap expect the economy to do well, on "borrowed" time. Pun intended.

FYI: The next hurdle might be Obozocare premium increases for 2018. I suspect that the premium increases for 2018 will make it unaffordable for a lot of people, which has a chance of zapping the economies strength.

BigWillyStyle887 Tue, 10/31/2017 - 10:38 Permalink

Whats not to be confident about? I havent had a raise in 6 years, house prices keep going up, food prices keep going up, health insurance prices keep going up, car prices keep going up. My future is so bright i gotta wear shades in this bitch........bitchezzzzz