Buchanan Fears A GOP Bloodbath - The Lesson For 2018

Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

The day after his “Silent Majority” speech on Nov. 3, 1969, calling on Americans to stand with him for peace with honor in Vietnam, Richard Nixon’s GOP captured the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey.

By December, Nixon had reached 68 percent approval in the Gallup Poll, though, a year earlier, he had won but 43 percent of the vote.

Contrast Nixon’s numbers with President Trump’s.

Where Trump won 46 percent of the vote against Hillary Clinton, his approval rating is now nearly 10 points below that. He has less support today than on the day he was elected, or inaugurated.

Tens of millions of Americans are passionately for Trump, and tens of millions are passionately against him.

The GOP problem: The latter cohort is equal in intensity but larger in number, and this is especially true in purple and blue states like the commonwealth of Virginia.

There is no way to spin Tuesday as other than a Little Bighorn, and possible harbinger of what is to come.

In George Washington’s hometown of Alexandria and Arlington County, Democratic candidate Ralph Northam won 4-1. In Fairfax and Loudoun counties, the most populous D.C. suburbs, Northam won 2-1.

In the rural counties, however, Republican Ed Gillespie rolled up the landslides.

As there are two Americas, there are two Virginias.

Consider. Of all the delegate seats in the Virginia assembly allocated to Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties, the GOP can today claim only one.

Northern Virginia is taking on the political and socioeconomic profile of San Francisco.

Another and perhaps insoluble problem for the GOP, not only in the Old Dominion, is demography.

Democrats rolled up their largest margins among African-Americans, Hispanics, single women, immigrants and the young. And these voting blocs are growing.

Gillespie ran up his largest margins among white males near and past retirement age and married white women. These Middle Americans are in inexorable demographic decline.

The Greatest Generation is passing on, and baby boomers born between 1946 and 1951 are now on Medicare and Social Security.

Yet reports of the GOP’s demise are grossly exaggerated.

Though Gillespie lost by nine points, Jill Vogel, who ran for lieutenant governor on Trumpian issues, lost by six.

By 2-1, Virginians do not want their Confederate monuments torn down. Northam, sensing this, moved toward Gillespie’s position as the campaign went on. Also, among the 27 percent of Virginians who regarded taxes and immigration as the top issues, Gillespie won by nearly 4-1.

It was health care concerns, the No. 1 issue, that buried the GOP.

As for mainstream media rage and revulsion at the “racism” of Gillespie ads suggesting Northam supported sanctuary cities and was soft on the MS-13 gang, this reflects an abiding establishment fear of the Trumpian issues of illegal immigration and crime.

Then there was the Republican messenger.

A former chairman of the RNC, Washington lobbyist and White House aide, Gillespie is an establishment Republican unconvincing in the role of a fighting populist conservative. His speeches recalled not Trump’s run, but that of the Republicans Trump trounced.

Ed Gillespie was Virginia’s version of Jeb Bush.

Message from the Old Dominion: A purple state, trending blue, with its economy recession-proof as long as Uncle Sam across the river consumes 20 percent of GDP, is a steepening climb for the GOP. You must have a superior candidate, comfortable with cutting issues, to win it now.

Republicans are being admonished to drop the monuments-and-memorials issue and respect why NFL players might want to “take a knee” during the national anthem.

But if to win in Northern Virginia the GOP must move closer to the Democratic Party, why would the rest of the state want to vote for the Republican Party?

During the campaign, both candidates moved rightward.

Northam rejected sanctuary cities and accepted Lee and Jackson on Richmond’s Monument Avenue, and Gillespie ran Trumpian ads, even if they seemed to clash with the mild-mannered candidate himself.

The lesson for 2018:

While the solid support of Trumpians is indispensable for GOP victory, it is insufficient for GOP victory. Republican candidates will have to decide how close they wish to get to President Trump, or how far away they can risk going and survive.

Facing this choice, Sens. Jeff Flake and Bob Corker decided to pack it in. Other Republicans may follow. But a house divided will not stand.

Republicans should recall that off-year elections are often problematic for incumbent parties. In 1954, President Eisenhower lost both houses of Congress. After pardoning Nixon in 1974, Gerald Ford lost 49 seats. In 1982, Ronald Reagan sustained a 27-seat loss.

In 1994, Bill Clinton lost 53 seats and control of the House. In 2010, Barack Obama lost 63 seats and control of the House.

If the nation chooses to turn Congress over to Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer in 2018, will that be all Trump’s fault? Or should perhaps some credit go to Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and venerable political tradition?


Stuart Richard Chesler Sat, 11/11/2017 - 00:07 Permalink

that's what the establishment, including the GOP establishment want, a GOP bloodbath so the Dems can take back the Senate and Congress.  This way they can go after Trump.  The GOP establishment is deliberately committing political suicide in 2018 so the Dem establishment are free to now pursue Trump.  Trump is an independent who ran on the GOP ticket...the establishment have to get him out.   There's really 3 parties now.  Far left i.e. Sanders, the independent i.e. Trump supporters, and the establishment.   GOP throwing the game is the establishment's way to get rid of Trump.

In reply to by Richard Chesler

GUS100CORRINA Stuart Sat, 11/11/2017 - 00:32 Permalink

Buchanan Fears A GOP Bloodbath - The Lesson For 2018My response: Buchanan is establishment, make no mistake. The only way America falls of a cliff is if America keeps "spitting" in the face of GOD Almighty.Fear mongering VS faith is at the root of America's problem.As a side note, the BUSH FAMILY need to SHUT THEIR DAMN MOUTHS, STAND DOWN and support the current POTUS.

In reply to by Stuart

General Titus Stuart Sat, 11/11/2017 - 07:40 Permalink

The GOP "Establishment" better known as Trotskyite Neocon Liberals purposely committed suicides when they savagely attacked Pat Buchanan in 1996, and helped to destroy his america first campaign, and ran Beltway Bob Dole so their CFR Golden boy Billy Boy Clinton would would win again and continue the globalist plans to destroy our nation while building up communist China.The hated Neocons did the samething when they ran that terrorist loving nutjob Songbird McQaeda in 2008 so that their community organizing fraud Obozo would win.That was why the Tea party was formed to try and kick out the Trotskyite Liberal Neocons out. They are also known as "RINOS"

In reply to by Stuart

fleur de lis General Titus Sat, 11/11/2017 - 10:54 Permalink

Agree.Of all the viable candidates they could have run in 2008 the GOP picked a known loser.They put a worn down senior citizen up against a new and energetic candidate, with hopeful messages and a young family.Like it or not Obama represented the future with many voters.McCain represented a nursing home.During debates the physical differences could not be more stark.Furthermore, Obama was a better speaker -- and yes I know he was, is, and will always be full of it, but he presented better than the geriatric candidate.The geriatric candidate had no new ideas, spoke from the DC script, and was widely disliked by GOP voters for a number of reasons.He was unreliable regarding GOP issues from the start, and had a persistently arrogant demeanor.Time has not improved him.The only reason the GOP put up an unpopular, poorly spoken old fogey was because he was a guaranteed loss.The GOP and the DNC need to be cleaned out and start over.   

In reply to by General Titus

Dwain Dibley General Titus Sat, 11/11/2017 - 13:52 Permalink

Agree.Restoring limited government at the Federal level is a task that can be accomplished by the states' governments first, by invoking their right to regulate congressional campaign contributions. For House candidates, restrict campaign contributions to the residents of the district within which the candidate is running for office.The second thing the States' governments can do is demand the restoration of their Constitutionally guaranteed right to equal suffrage in the Senate, which was exercised through their selected representatives, by invoking their Article 5 right to withdraw their consent to the unconstitutional 17th amendment, and taking control of their Senators, restoring their voice and suffrage in their Senate.That's the formula for a paradigm shift in government of epic proportions, the shift away from adversarial ideology-driven politics battling for control over government to adversarial 'people vs. government' politics, as it was intended and as it should be.Restore The Republic .

In reply to by General Titus

Endgame Napoleon Stuart Sat, 11/11/2017 - 11:20 Permalink

You may be right, but it is quite funny how the voters’ will does not factor into the calculating, “suicudal” equation concocted by the GOP Establishment “Critters.”

From this article, Buchanan seems to think that the 27% of hardcore, anti-Establishment Trump voters are not enough to sway elections, especially mid-term elections, when turnout is lower.

But I am not sure all of the Trumpians turned out in that Virginia election.

One reason might be that many, like me, crossed over from the Democrat Party to vote for Trump, looking for an alternative to a party that focuses on race and fake feminism, not on economic issues that are killing the US middle class, like welfare-boosted mass immigration. These are voters, like me, who should have voted for Perot back in the Nineties, and Perot was an Independent.

Maybe, you are right that Trump is an Indepemdent. Honestly, I do not know. Trump is very smart, contrary to MSM IQ assessments, and hard to read.

Trump voters have different reasons for rejecting the establishment in both parties. Some of my personal reasons for rejecting it are likely not the main reasons that many people reject the establishment, but there is a big overlap with all of us on a few, core issues.

And politicians are ignoring it, probably due to the demographic trends explained in this article, leaving us completely unrepresented in a so-called Republic.

Many of the rural (and other) cross-over voters who helped beef up the GOP’s numbers in the 2016 presidential election might have stayed home due to a nagging suspicion that, whether you call him an Independent or a Republican. Trump has showed some signs that he will sway to the Democrats on the main issues that made so many cross-over voters cut their ties with the party they voted for for decades.

Although I agree with Trump on both of those issues, I do not agree that it is disrespectful, entitled football millionaires or the communist-coup-style removal of historical monuments that motivates the cross-over Trump voters who thought they might have found a home in the Republican Party.

I think it is primarily out-of-control, mass immigration that motivates Trump voters, mostly for economic reasons (JOBS and WAGES), but also due to the violent crime among a few immigrants that did not have to occur if laws were enforced.

An Establishment “Critter” can pretend to be on the Deplorable side of that issue for careerist reasons; that does not mean voters will not see through it. And they are especially likely not to if even their Deplorable Hero has shown some signs of wavering. If the Republican Party does not DO something about that issue—something significant, not just a transparent bandaid—why vote for them?

Should non-welfare and non-tax-welfare recipients in my now light-red state, with its PER CAPITA income of $19k, vote for Republicans due to the following:

1). Corporate tax cuts, creating jobs that will go to immigrants who can work for rock-bottom wages due to US-born children that guarantee them free rent, free EBT groceries and a $6,269 child tax credit that equals 4 months of wages in a full-time job for the immigrant households with a sole, male breadwinner and, in the female-dominated job sectors, for single moms, working the welfare-reform-required 20 hours per week to stay within the less-than-$1,000-per-month, earned-income limit for welfare, enjoying the same, pay-per-birth, unearned income streams from welfare and tax-code welfare in a welfare-rigged labor market that drives wages down so much that hard work (in of itself) is just not worth it;

2) Estate tax cuts for the children of extremely wealthy parents....I mean family farmers, when most family farms were long-ago eliminated by Big Agriculture subsides and by bad trade agreements, like NAFTA, which favor corporate farms that hire mostly immigrants on welfare and child-tax-credit welfare, and which will soon be staffed by 100% robots, as some Japanese farms already are;

3) More child-tax-credit welfare so that more married moms, working part-time for extra luxury money, can further drive wages and hours down for all of the women who have only one stream of earned-only income to cover all household bills, including unaffordable rent;

4) Nebulous small business tax cuts that likely do not apply to those of us who have owned small Main Street shops or who have worked in the many, proliferating 1099 jobs that so many single, childless citizens end up working, while the parents load up on the family-friendly, absenteeism-friendly, crony-back-watching, hourly jobs with benefits.

For most truly small businesses, the tax burden is often not so much income tax as the twice-as-high SS tax rate paid on every penny of income earned in self-employment. It is questionable whether defining a small shop as a “pass-through” corporation is even possible or is a real, tax-lowering option that will offer much relief to most self-employed citizens. I am for that, but I am skeptical that it will help people like me or many of the small businesspeople that I know.

I was for bigly corporate tax cuts, but not for more sex-and-reproduction rewards through tax welfare or estate tax cuts. I only support the corporate tax cuts in the context of a huge immigration reform that would make sure that American citizens benefit from any job growth except in cases where rare, high-level skills and real shortages, assuming they actually exist, are concerned. I am still not clear on how this tax cut helps to reduce offshoring of the middle class to China, although that was much discussed during the campaign.

I think cross-over voters are wondering if Republicans really meant it about opposing mass, welfare-boosted immigration and offshoring of their country’s middle class to foreign shores. Were they just pursuing this tax cut / tax-welfare plan for rich families and so-called “working families” alone??????????????

I am not for this rigged tax reform that hurts childless, single women, like me, rigging the part-time, temporary, low-wage, churn-mobile workforce even more with more tax welfare that favors working moms.

As a voter, maybe, I could overlook it if something major was done about mass, welfare-buttressed immigration. Maybe, I could continue to vote Republican. Even though I vote in every mid-term and general election, I do not know whether I would have turned out in the Virginia election if I lived there. I am just very disillusioned, having switched over from the Democratic half of the Uniparty, thinking the Republican side of the Uniparty might actually represent people like me. I am not at all sure that it does anymore. I am tired of standing in lines to vote against myself, economically speaking, and I am not sure that my resentment against the idiotic, FAKE identity politics of the Democratic half of the Uniparty is enough of a motivation to make me turn out for the other half of the Uniparty.

In reply to by Stuart

Mineshaft Gap Endgame Napoleon Sun, 11/12/2017 - 01:14 Permalink

+1 Good and lively analysis."I think it is primarily out-of-control, mass immigration that motivates Trump voters"Yes.For many, this is the last straw of neoliberalism. People who were able to weather losing economic power and class status took it very personally indeed when the establishment forced them to pay to watch their social norms be turned upside down -- and quite understandably so. The social engineering being waged by our elites is staggering in its arrogance. Trump harnessed this resentment, but it is far from evident he is going to be faithful to it or even that he understands his future is now pinned to it. Should he betray the deplorables, say, on amnesty, he's out. And in roll the Dems, with impeachment on the brain.

In reply to by Endgame Napoleon

Cassandra.Hermes bobcatz Sat, 11/11/2017 - 08:29 Permalink

Yes, but the reason is different, you need to be true believer in message you deliver. Hillary lost because she was not, Romney & McCain lost because of the same. Trump was honest, for example obviously atheist and he didn't try to sell himself as religious, he didn't walk out of his racial messages against Mexican but Hillary stated to apologise against deplorable, she should have embraced it and stay firm and explained it.

In reply to by bobcatz

AGuy bobcatz Sat, 11/11/2017 - 10:29 Permalink

"GOP is morphing into DEM because they can't win national elections.Last major wins (W Bush & Trump) were stolen."

I would not stay stolen, but very marginal. Its almost impossible for RNC to win the presidential popular vote and must use the electoral college to win. There are simply too many voters dependant on gov't handouts to win. I do believe that by 2020 DNC will obtain a super majority as more boomers are dependant on SS and Medicare and thus will vote DNC.

I think around 2020 the populous red states like Florida and Texas will turn Purple or even Red. A lot of Liberals/Leftist are retiring in southern states to escape the high taxes, but they will vote DNC when the relocate.

Presuming that the current trend continues, Its likely that the US will become a single party state by 2025, dominated by the DNC, when the RNC is only able to hold few seats in Congress & Senate. That said its possible that RNC candidates will campaign socialists/leftist (RINOs) in order to win, but they would essential be the same as DNC.

Currently we are probably very close to a single party system if you consider the RINOs and DNC.

In reply to by bobcatz

AGuy Montgomery Burns Sat, 11/11/2017 - 15:03 Permalink

"Thats almost exactly the opposite of whats happened so far."

Trump lost the popular vote to Hilary. Lots & lots of liberals/leftist are moving south. Liberals/leftists are like locusts. They vote in Leftist and then leave when the taxes get jacked up and all the companies leave. It is not as if Red voters are going to move back into Blue states. Once a state turns solidly blue it never goes back to Red. VA, GA, NC were once solid blue states. VA & GA are moving from Purple to Blue. FL has carried Clinton (Bill), Nearly Gore in 2000 & Obozo vs McCain.

In reply to by Montgomery Burns

The Toothman earleflorida Fri, 11/10/2017 - 22:33 Permalink

Can you imagine all the shit bills that a Democratic congress might pass? 1) Bans on AR-15s2) Transgender affirmative action laws3) Universal income4) EPA restrictions5) Massive tax increases The list goes on and on... I finally saw some light at the end of the tunnel when my 69 year old dad started asking the inevitable question: When are people just going to say fuck it and start shooting? 

In reply to by earleflorida

Cman5000 The Toothman Sat, 11/11/2017 - 08:23 Permalink

Yep. When the ballot box turns to the cartridge box is anyone's guess. I don't think the Dems will be able to flip 40 + house seats. Perhaps a couple Senate seats. Dems are going to loose 3 to 5 Senate seats in red states in 2018 so it will equal it self out. I still believe this is tied in with economics, if the middle class continue to get corn holed than the shooting,civil war or revolution will start what ever we want to call it.

In reply to by The Toothman

AGuy Cman5000 Sat, 11/11/2017 - 10:34 Permalink

" I don't think the Dems will be able to flip 40 + house seats. Perhaps a couple Senate seats. Dems are going to loose 3 to 5 Senate seats in red states in 2018"

They Don't need to take over 40+ house seats since there is at least a dozen RINOs in the house that will side with the DNC. Currently the Senate is controlled by DNC since there are more than a Dozen RINOs. Which Party they belong to is less important in what the stand for.

In reply to by Cman5000

j0nx earleflorida Sat, 11/11/2017 - 08:22 Permalink

McConnell, Ryan and the other leaders have already run the numbers and realize they will not be the ones voted out in 2018. The gop is sacrificing it’s down level members and it’s majority in order to not do trumps agenda. They can then ditch trump and move back left again where they want to be. The rinos in the gop abhor the conservative members of its caucus. They will do anything including self immolate in order to get back to the left again and be the catamite of the Dems. It’s easier playing the victim than it is to lead. Gop leadership is simply doing everything they can to run down the clock before they start their self immolation.

In reply to by earleflorida

RafterManFMJ Fri, 11/10/2017 - 20:49 Permalink

As cruise missiles rained on Syria, I decided I’d go back to doing what I didn’t do for 20 years, not-voting. Ya fooled me, and good on you. Won’t fool me in ‘18 or 2020.

Caloot Bigly Fri, 11/10/2017 - 21:06 Permalink

Same here, and across the US.  As the poor grow in numbers, they have more power to vote for theft. And the guilt of the rich, with economic prosperity bought with the end of a monetary spigot, and having no base in any hard work or savings, too will vote for theft.  And they will.   Until it collapses.   There is no turning back.

In reply to by Bigly

MK13 RafterManFMJ Fri, 11/10/2017 - 21:24 Permalink

GOP has too many RINOs, they will have to be replaced. And current RINO infested GOP may not even care to win midterms - it may be interested in losing.

But the alternative is calling Kamala Harris Ms. President, so consider the other option. And given one more term, Dems and uniparty will never lose again - as they recreate politburo and strip mine any wealth out of this society.

In reply to by RafterManFMJ

dark pools of soros rejected Sat, 11/11/2017 - 07:48 Permalink

Look how they are sending their message against guys like Moore

You need a very active generation that is willing to make politics their pasttime while they still work and have a family... as they kill nfl and hollywood it might happen.. but they'll be called racists and pedos no matter what the issue.. soooo

so mineaswell be called killers and rid the vermin out.. fuck politics

In reply to by rejected

GreatUncle RafterManFMJ Sat, 11/11/2017 - 07:02 Permalink

Same here in the UK.Voting was only for those ruling us to gain consent to blow the fuck out of other peoples.Great fucking illusion these voter rights ... the whole population has been conned.Those that piss me off are not the elites, the liberals that have been bought off with FIAT for a better life while watching the sand monkeys get blown to fucking bits then demand they get to look after them.Yeah right ... a fucked up liberal world.

In reply to by RafterManFMJ

Normalcy Bias Fri, 11/10/2017 - 20:53 Permalink

If the American People are too fucking stupid to finally see through this false Democrat-Republican paradigm and vote in some real change, they'll get what they deserve.