Northeast Facing Record-Low Temperatures As Polar Vortex Returns; Nat Gas Prices Soar 700%

The return of the dreaded polar vortex is battering much of the eastern US this week, sending temperatures well into freezing territory and close to record lows - a phenomenon that could persist for much of the week leading up to Thanksgiving.

According to the New York Post, record-low temperatures are forecast for Friday and Saturday, with nighttime and early-morning mercury dipping into the 20s.

The temperature dropped into the 20s in some places in the northeast last night, and could sink as low as 21 degrees fahrenheit on Saturday, according to AccuWeather forecasts.

The record low for November 10 was 27 degrees in 1914. The high Saturday will be 37 to 43 degrees - up from the predawn low of about 24 degrees. The record low for November 11 was 29 degrees, set in 1933.

The forecast calls for 50 degrees on Monday, setting off eight straight days with high temps of at least 50, AccuWeather said.

The forecasting service added that signs are pointing toward a shift of the polar vortex that may cause snow, rain and other hazardous weather conditions like icy roads in some parts of the Northeast.

Right now, a cold snap is bringing an abrupt November reality check to most of the eastern US that will persist for the rest of the Veterans’ Day weekend. As Accuweather explains, the weather pattern will become even more interesting later in the week because it will feature a meteorological phenomenon called “the Greenland block”.

This pattern consists of relatively high pressure wind pattern near greenland that forces the polar jet stream to move sharply south toward the eastern US.

"Model forecasts have been pretty consistent and increasingly strong with the -NAO," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with the Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Crawford said the strength of this upcoming Greenland block/negative NAO would be about a "90th percentile event for late November.” In early to mid-November, it’s far more rare.



The first snow.

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While the pattern is of relatively high confidence, there are some impacts we're more confident about and others that remain uncertain this far out in time.

One near certainty in this pattern is another series of plunges of colder air deep into the Midwest and East by the weekend before Thanksgiving.

If the weather pattern holds, it’d be impossible to rule out a powerful snowstorm arriving just in time for the Thanksgiving travel season. Indeed, snow is already falling in the Chicago area.

However, none of this is certain - yet. It’s merely just something to keep an eye on, Accuweather’s meteorologists said.

* * *

The unseasonably cold weather is, of course, another boon for the energy market, with natural gas prices in New England soaring 700% this week as refineries braced for the uptick in demand.

According to Accuweather, the heating season is starting off with a frigid start, which has boosted prices of spot gas for Boston and other cities in the region eightfold this week to $8.0195 per million British thermal units Thursday on ICE, their highest level since Jan. 6. Regional power prices also jumped. Boston's low on Friday was around 20 degrees Fahrenheit - 17 degrees below normal.



Bigly Sat, 11/11/2017 - 11:27 Permalink

I went out this morning no socks to get paper.24 feels like 15. Meh.This is New England, alarmist pussies!  Otoh, my tomato plants are officially dead. 

Manthong Bigly Sat, 11/11/2017 - 11:28 Permalink

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 20”s ??? In survival school on Mount Rangely….. It’s time to start tanning……

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NoDebt gmrpeabody Sat, 11/11/2017 - 12:35 Permalink

Just got back in from 3 hours out hiking around in the woods (my son wanted to go Geocaching).  A little chilly for November but honestly not bad.  Sunny, no wind makes a big difference in how it "feels".Turning around to do an overnight Boy Scout trip with the older one now.  Yes, we're sleeping in a tent outdoors tonight.  The 20* bags are not going to cut it without some extra help from a few blankets.  We'll sleep like logs, I guarantee it.  Always do outdoors in the cold.See y'all tomorrow!  I'm out.  

In reply to by gmrpeabody

buttmint NoDebt Sat, 11/11/2017 - 20:10 Permalink

No Debtvery cool that you are enjoying your boys as they grow older. Quality time that all of you will cherish forever.Yes, wise to have plenty of ensolite or ThermaRest pads under you, they make all the diff in the world! Oh yeah...and blankets. I always make a thermos of hot tea/and coffee the night before so that I can hang IN BED, enjoying a  hot cuppa java. I usually fall back to sleep. Biut awoken by having to head outto take a leak!Bladder duty!Picture August 1971 and Iam camping with my buds about 22 miles in from a camground in Glacier National Park. Yes, about the same time all the grizzlies are attacking campers and hikers. The rangers were very smart and cool and grilled us to NOT pack in bacon. I wish we had some! We only had trail mix and lived on that! My college roomate was yakking away about strange terms like "NORTH FACE, SIERRA DESIGNS, Kelty, Gerry, loft, baffle construction, ensolite pads."I was way behind the curve. I had a BS of A canvas backpack, crappy sleeping bag and no padding. Everyone froze except for my buddy, who was warm as toast! The zipper to my sleeping bag broke, so I crawled head first into my lousy bag and never slept a wink.Later I bought a NF Ibex sleeping bag, which I still own.We all gotta start somewhere!

In reply to by NoDebt

Moving and Grooving buttmint Sun, 11/12/2017 - 00:23 Permalink

August 28, 2016 inYellowstone Norris CG, at 6:30 am it was 32 degrees. That was every night for the week I was there. Awesome. I was born and raised in upstate NY, where it was big cold and big snowy almost every winter. Getting that nice weather in August was great. Should add I was living in Las Vegas at the time - it was about 80 degrees at 6:30 am there.

In reply to by buttmint

RationalLuddite Kayman Sat, 11/11/2017 - 14:36 Permalink

Too late. A NASA 'scientist' already seriously arguing basically this ...… Look how nasa tries to make you think that a GAIN in net ice on the Artic is actually not against their 'Global Warming Seas Will Rise Panic Now' narrative. .. these guys are simply pathetic and totally lacking in any self awareness or even maturity.  Just pityable"“The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away,” Zwally said. “But this is also bad news. If the 0.27 millimeters per year of sea level rise attributed to Antarctica in the IPCC report is not really coming from Antarctica, there must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for.” *How is that for some autistic mental gymnastics!!* And again ... "We’re essentially in agreement with other studies that show an increase in ice discharge in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Thwaites and Pine Island region of West Antarctica,” said Jay Zwally, a glaciologist with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the study, which was published on Oct. 30 in the Journal of Glaciology. “Our main disagreement is for East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica – there, we see an ice gain that exceeds the losses in the other areas.”  *And again in absolutely baseless speculation opposite to the actual evidence they found ...* " _*But it might*_ only take a few decades for Antarctica’s growth to reverse, according to Zwally. “ _*If*_ the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they’ve been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years (????????????‍?????‍?) -- _*I don’t think*_ there will be enough snowfall increase _*to offset these losses*_.” ????

In reply to by Kayman

Nom de Guerre Manthong Sat, 11/11/2017 - 12:48 Permalink

If you are referring to Rangeley, Maine, that is super cool.  Grandparents had a house on Saddleback Mtn road for years and a (very) remote camp on Mooselookmeguntic Lake.  No power, limited running water, gas lights, big wood-fired cookstove in the center of the kitchen.  Grandfather and great grandfather built a water tower at the camp and pumped water from the lake for washing/bathing.  Most if not all the camps up there were turn of the century sportsmans camps.  Many, many good memories.

In reply to by Manthong

Mazzy Bigly Sat, 11/11/2017 - 15:19 Permalink

Went running today a little before 0900, in shorts.  Saw ONE other guy out riding his bike and we gave each other that "nod of acknowledgement" that we were both awesome for being out and about in the morning while wussies were either at the gym (maybe, most people can't seem to be bothered to walk to the car on cold weekend mornings) or getting fat at home.

In reply to by Bigly

Mazzy Son of Loki Sat, 11/11/2017 - 15:22 Permalink

People freak out.  The air is cold.  So what?  Breathe it into your lungs now and call it "cold training".  It'll toughen you up.Don't like it?  Move to Florida and take a 30-50% pay cut only to have shitty schools, little property value growth, and even shittier neighbors.If there's ice or snow notch it down on the drive.  It isn't that difficult to figure out.  Stock up on a few basic supplies....but ya'll here were doing that anyway.  No big deal, it's just winter, happens every year.

In reply to by Son of Loki

dogbreath Cardinal Fang Sat, 11/11/2017 - 13:19 Permalink

I can reccomend Sorrel Boots.  They are clumsy but good to -40Other than that layer up with the stuff you have.  no needfor big parkas that you wear a few weeks per year.  most people spend so little time outside anyway.  I wear this: 100% cotton t-shirt against my skin100% cotton carhart canvas work shirt - its tough100% cotton hoodieA wind proof medium coat, Windbreaker fleece etcA wind proof heavy shell gore-tex or synthetic, leather 

In reply to by Cardinal Fang