As Bitcoin Tops $8,200, Only 39% Of Survey Respondents Say It's A Bubble

Having first surged above $8000 overnight amid Zimbabwe's chaos, it appears uncertainty in the core of Europe has driven further demand for cryptocurrencu protection, sending Bitcoin to a new record high of $8247 - up 50% from the 'Bitcoin Cash' crash weekend lows.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

As CoinTelegraph reports, the latest milestone for Bitcoin, which came following news the first Bitcoin-to-Litecoin Lightning Network ‘atomic swap’ successfully debuted, caps its comeback after Bitcoin Cash volatility.

BTC currently has a market cap of almost $134 bln against a cross-crypto combined cap of just under $240 bln, both numbers representing new records.


Bitcoin’s dominance has also recovered over the past few days to top 56 percent of the market after struggling to maintain supremacy as BCH caused considerable fluctuations.


BCH itself has come down off previous highs to languish around $1,200 - around 50 percent of its best prices. Staunch proponents of the Bitcoin fork as the ‘real Bitcoin’ are currently locked in a forking battle of their own as two strands of BCH emerged last week.


The product of a “malicious fork,” Bitcoin Clashic now represents the original Bitcoin Cash or developers describe it, “Satoshi’s true vision.”

As major supporter Roger Ver’s continues to point new users towards BCH, however, the Bitcoin community is coming out in increasing support of naive newcomers potentially unaware that BCH is not in fact Bitcoin.


For once the rest of the crypto space is not being sold to fund Bitcoin buys...

“The inflation in this thing is massive,” Luke Hickmore, a senior investment manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments in London, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.


“When will it collapse? Who knows. It will cause a lot of pain.”

But there are some traders who are noting the worrying divergence between price action and volume in the latest surge...

“I find it remarkable and somewhat frightening how, no matter how much Bitcoin is pummelled by sellers, it simply bounces back even stronger,” said Lukman Otunuga, an analyst at currency brokerage ForexTime Ltd.


“Will bitcoin hit $10,000 before year end? This is the question every investor is asking.”

A recent survey by Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Reserach, done in conjunction with Triad Securities Corp...

The results of our bitcoin survey are in! We got over 300 responses, and there are three key takeaways from the data.

First, less than half of respondents (39%) think bitcoin is a bubble.


Second, there are still plenty of fence sitters, with more individuals who have considered a purchase than already invested.


Lastly, the median estimate for where bitcoin will end the year is below where it trades today ($7,800). Apparently Santa Claus rallies haven’t reached the crypto currency world just yet.

Here is a summary of the results and our comments:

Question: Where will bitcoin close the year (2017)?

  • Average response: $7,381
  • Median response: $7,800
  • Standard Deviation of Responses: $2,555

Our comments: As expected, we had a wide range of responses here.Overall, the wisdom of this particular crowd says bitcoin may be range-bound through the end of the year. Still, with a standard deviation of $2,500, it could top $10,000 or drop close to $5,000 and still be within one sigma of the distribution.

Question: Where is bitcoin going?

  • This is a bubble – it must crash: 39.4%
  • Continue to rise at a much slower pace: 27.1%
  • Value doubles in the next 6 months or sooner: 16.4%
  • Don’t know/no opinion: 17.0%

Our comments: we were surprised the bubble response was less than 40% given widespread commentary in that direction and the age/experience of the respondents. By age, at least, our survey takers has seen their fair share of bubbles. We were ready to see +70% responses indicate bitcoin’s price is unsustainable. Less than 40% is, well, remarkable.

“Have you ever bought bitcoin or other crypto currencies?”

  • Yes, but only in the last 6 months: 14.5%
  • Yes, and I have been involved for +6 months: 16.7%
  • No, never: 30.9%
  • No, but I have considered it: 36.3%
  • No, and I am unfamiliar with bitcoin/cryptos: 1.6%

Our comments: there are still plenty of fence sitters here, with those who have considered purchasing (36%) outnumbering those that have bought (31%). The big question is if they are waiting for a pullback, or further gains?

“Would you ever see bitcoin as a safe haven similar to gold?”

  • Yes: 40.7%
  • No: 42.9%
  • Don’t know, no opinion: 16.4%

Our comments: this may be the most surprising finding of the survey. Even with widely reported wallet hacks and other systematic challenges, 41% of respondents think bitcoin can become something akin to gold as an investment safe haven.

Do you see bitcoin as a hedge against monetary policy?

  • Yes: 39.1%
  • No: 43.2%
  • Don’t know/no opinion: 17.7%

Our comments: almost as surprising as the gold question, these responses show a sizeable minority believe bitcoin’s algorithm-driven limited supply can act as a non-correlated buffer against central bank policy.

Have you ever participated in an Initial Coin Offering or looked at such opportunities?

  • Yes, and I have invested: 7.9%
  • No, but I have considered investing: 29.0%
  • No, and I won’t without more regulation: 14.8%
  • No, and I have not looked at these offerings: 48.3%

Our comments: over a third of respondents have looked at or invested in ICOs. Not bad for a fund raising approach that is just a few years old. And over half might consider ICOs if/when the regulatory framework improves.

If you look at ICOs, how do you assess these opportunities?

  • The three most popular answers, in order: Founders/Key Employees, Total Addressable Market, and Sector Addressed
  • Less popular: Token type, Deal Pricing and Time to Market

Our comments: no surprise here, with ICO investors looking at exactly the same issues as venture capitalists.

What is your level of confidence in current bitcoin custodial offerings?

  • High: 9.1%
  • Medium: 29.7%
  • Low: 25.9%
  • Don’t know/no opinion: 30.0%
  • I prefer traditional custodians: 5.4%

Our comments: this is a critical issue for institutional investors. In order for crypto currencies to achieve true “Asset class” status, investor confidence in custodial solutions has to improve.

What is your level of confidence in crypto asset liquidity?

  • High: 7.9%
  • Medium: 39.7%
  • Low: 31.2%
  • Don’t know/no opinion: 21.1%

Our comments: same thoughts here as the previous point. While respondents may feel marginally better about crypto liquidity, over half rate their confidence here as low or they just don’t know enough to judge.

Our final thoughts on the data presented:

  • Institutional investors are taking bitcoin/cryptos seriously. If you’ve ever run an in-depth survey, you know getting 300 responses is difficult. The fact that we got even more shows there is tremendous interest in bitcoin and crypto currencies.
  • Initial Coin Offerings are getting real attention as well. Investors already understand the due diligence process here – it is the same as venture-stage investing. Custody and liquidity across the crypto space do need to improve, however.
  • A sizeable minority of respondents (39 – 40%) see bitcoin as a potential analog to physical gold, both as a safe haven and a hedge against mistakes in central bank monetary policy. Until blockchain technology becomes more widespread, that is probably the best way to consider buyers’ motivation for bitcoin.


Two-bits Stackers Mon, 11/20/2017 - 10:47 Permalink

Agreed. I am a die hard silver bug, an "if you don't hold it, you don't own it" kind of guy. But, what harm does it do to pick up loose change from the ground and put it in a piggy bank? shows how in 15 minutes you can start picking up loose crypto change.  You will not get rich with this method, but you will collect fractions of crypto.I am not making $7000 a week from my mother's basement. Im a 42 year old stay at home dad who didn't buy bitcoin at $12 a coin in 2012.But, a bitcoin goes out to 8 decimal places. Even fractions of a coin are worth something at the moment. Don't click on the link if you don't want to, but free money is free. 

In reply to by Stackers

tion Stackers Mon, 11/20/2017 - 13:17 Permalink

So I've been thinking about this whole issue of who could possibly hold the BTC killer card, why, and what they will do with it.  And basically, taking a thought jaunt through woo woo rabbithole crazy land between point A and point B, I think that BTC may have the full force of the Eastern dynastic coalition and underbelly behind it.  I think the sleepy do-little-say-nothing old fogey parents are the ones commissioning the killer, as insurance and leverage, against BTC being captured somehow, sovereign adoption refusal, or the crazy slimy shitbag blockchain-as-god, ai-as-god creeps getting out of control.  I think their youths had BTC built as a solution to the problem, instead of settling for more do-nothing, and that the succession of Satoshi Nakamotos are just an acting authorized agent of the coalition.He who has the gold, makes the rules.  But there are huge fundamental differences between old East and modern West thinking.  What if he who holds it cares more about the well being of the people than exerting tyranical power, doesn't want gold ownership to determine the well being of the people, has been trying to figure out how to kill the Western fiat shitshow without war, and would rather their gold stay off-book?  And what if the dragon already played a stupid game with the snake, and won stupid prizes, and has decided doing so again might not be such a great idea?  The snake still holds the war 'kill 90% of them all' card, but they were never planning on putting that one down under any circumstance anyways.Even the way BTC is designed is not so far off from their grandparents' physically decentralized book of codes and ledgers.  If you look at who is buying in, adopting usage, fighting, and talking shit, at more of a sovereign level, that correlates.  Communist China gov's only way to stall this out or grab a bigger piece of the future pie probably would have been to attack Taiwan, but that isn't on the table anymore jmo.  So I would like to posit that many of the the Satoshi held wallets may never have any activity recorded on the blockchain, even if BTC hits $1M, as it will more likely be recorded in the private ledger system, some wallets may be offered to big players that fold as after-the-fact buy in consolation, and that the Satoshi wallets could non-publically potentially be collatoralized by somewhere in the ballpark of 20-2000K+ tonnes of shadow gold that doesn't exist openly on the modern record books. Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming.. :)

In reply to by Stackers

FactDog Cognitive Dissonance Mon, 11/20/2017 - 10:17 Permalink

The words I read here in ZH are those of people who natural cynicism have left them on the outside looking in.   Fight Club attitudes are good but every so often you forget logic and science.  No bubble here at all; just a good old fashion awakening of the masses to a disruptive technology  (Blockchain) and the power of first entry into a market.  ZH readers are not the only ones who distrust banks, everyone is catching on. 21 million BTC's and  7.0 B people.   Supply and Demand in its most pure form -- buy 0.5 of a BTC and hedge your bets, just in case we idiots and fools are right:-)  

In reply to by Cognitive Dissonance

blentus FactDog Mon, 11/20/2017 - 10:30 Permalink

You are thinking long-term.But what is happening right fucking now does not make any sense, demand just does not seem natural, and the only logical explanation is that Tether 'printed' by Bitfinex is used to pump the price. When it breaks, it's going to break badly.I wish I am wrong. I really do.Considering that 2 exchanges with highest traffic right now are Bitfinex and Bithumb, many conspiracy theories can be made, heh.But I have a bad feeling. Same one I had a few weeks before MtGox completely collapsed.Greedy cunts are ruining it again for the rest of us. Fuck.I know that I am not leaving anything on any exchanges for the foreseeable future :)

In reply to by FactDog

quadraspleen Cognitive Dissonance Mon, 11/20/2017 - 10:49 Permalink

Hmm, CD..I bought BTC in 2013 (or 2014 I can't remember now) it was £200 (£6200 at time of writing) I bought it to hold as an "investment" obviously I had no idea it would go as high as it has, (wish I'd bought more!) and I'm on the fence re bubble (but bubbles can extend into solid performance after a period of instability - I give you NASDAQ after DCB in 2000) but it is still an investment for me.My BTC "holdings" (if I may call them that) will be worth more than my AU soon..then I am in something of a quandary. Crypto (of some form or other) are here to stay

In reply to by Cognitive Dissonance

Cognitive Dissonance quadraspleen Mon, 11/20/2017 - 11:19 Permalink

I used too broad a brush to paint ALL Bitcoin owners as speculators. But when you purchase a penny stock you are not considered an investor, but rather a speculator. Those who bought Bitcoin earlier may consider themselves investors, but I contend they are speculators.It is not an insult. I have 'investment' positions that are speculations. I also have 'investments'. Some of my speculations have panned out to my pleasant surprise. Does that now make me an investor in that position?Words can be used however we want. I was simply pointing to different mindsets. We never see ourselves as 'like' the rest of the herd.

In reply to by quadraspleen

quadraspleen Cognitive Dissonance Mon, 11/20/2017 - 11:47 Permalink

No insult was taken at all. I've never really thought about which, if either, I am..I'm pretty dumbfounded by BTCs rise, and a little unnerved, but as I'm only in to it for a couple of thousand quid it's not scary, like say, if AU starts to hit the sub £800 mark, which I equally believe it could as much as BTC could go back to the sub £1000 mark..then I'd be sad..

In reply to by Cognitive Dissonance

Buckaroo Banzai Cognitive Dissonance Mon, 11/20/2017 - 13:55 Permalink

"Sorry but Bitcoin owners are not investors. They are speculators. There is nothing wrong with that, but the mindset is different."Speculation, or long-term investment? The nifty thing about BitCoin is, investing in it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more fiat dollars that move into BitCoin, the stronger and more robust its network becomes, and the more people are attracted to investing in cryptocurrency infrastructure in general.The opportunity to get money out of the (((global financial system))), and into something that is rapidly becoming a legitimate alternative, is proving to be incredibly attractive to thoughtful investors.

In reply to by Cognitive Dissonance

tmosley ejmoosa Mon, 11/20/2017 - 10:17 Permalink

If new facts don't change your thesis, you are a fool. The fact is that HighFeeSpeculatorCoin is being propped by fraudulent Tether issuance. Once that is gone, the shock will be enough to break the psychology behind said coin. With no actual use case, it will fail, and the coin that actually adheres to the white paper will take its place.There will be a hell of an opportunity for those with cash on the sidelines to get in.Crypto is the future, but there will continue to be setbacks. This just happens to be a big one.

In reply to by ejmoosa

quadraspleen tmosley Mon, 11/20/2017 - 10:50 Permalink

I'm interested to see what the % of new BTC purchases were made with Tether - I'd be surprised if it were higher than 25%Lots of "institutional" investors (those that touch cryptos) will be using USD transfers into exchanges..surely Tether is for the little people?Tether does sound like a total scam when you look into it. I made an account but their techies fucked something up with it and I couldn't make any deposits with it for a few months. When they fixed it I'd got proper accounts with two or three exchanges so I left it. Quite glad I did now

In reply to by tmosley

blentus tmosley Mon, 11/20/2017 - 10:57 Permalink

While I agree with you on Tether, stop being retarded and using catchphrases made by BCH crowd.This is not a religion, noone except religious fanatics in BCH camp cares about fucking whitepaper 'purity' and what 'original vision' of Satoshi was. It's not a bible, it's a technical paper which is a foundation for various technical work. A bunch of retards, interpreting white paper just like idiots in all religions interpret bible, quran or whatever is the flavor of the month.BCH is free to do whatever they want, but I am beyond annoyed with constant 'the only true Bitcoin', 'original vision', 'as Satoshi would have wanted' bleating. The only people profiting from forks are big coin holders. Ver has been behind every damn fork so far (except Bitcoin Gold), stop making that fucker even richer.BCH has absolutely no technical future. The only vision they have is 'increase the block size', and that is it (aka, fix the memory leak by adding more RAM). It won't scale well in the future, it will be limited to being a competition to Paypal and that is all it can do.If you don't understand what a risk of having very few developers mean, just look at S2X fork. Jeff fucking Garzik is not a beginner, I know him since RedHat days, he was always a very very very skilled and bright individual. But even he made stupid mistakes because you need more eyes and more time and more everything when dealing with projects of this complexity. And good developers with experience and knowledge are not exactly running into BCH camp.Even though i don't mind BCH, I am starting to slowly hate parts of BCH crowd because of constant stream of religious arguments.

In reply to by tmosley

tmosley blentus Mon, 11/20/2017 - 11:05 Permalink

>stop being retarded and using catchphrases made by BCH crowdBTC is doomed unless it can get those fees under control, and they have GIVEN UP, and are now directing people to use LTC and DASH if they want to buy things with crypto. No use==speculators only. That NEVER works.>noone except religious fanatics in BCH camp cares about fucking whitepaper 'purity' and what 'original vision' of Satoshi wasThe "vision" was for something that was useful to use as currency. Hence the term "cryptoCURRENCY". Not "cryptoSPECULATIVE DERIVATIVE".>The only vision they have is 'increase the block size', and that is itThis is goal thinking rather than systems thinking. The systems thinkers behind BCH are creating a system where there are many, many ways for them to win, and for the coin to get better. Increasing the block size was planned from the start, and anyone who followed the conversation at the time knows it.>If you don't understand what a risk of having very few developers meanCommits!=developers. BCH has THREE dev teams, and many more are working on other layers.>Even though i don't mind BCH, I am starting to slowly hate parts of BCH crowd because of constant stream of religious arguments.I think you are actually moving in the other direction. A few days ago you were foaming at the mouth, now you are far more reasonable.

In reply to by blentus

quadraspleen tmosley Mon, 11/20/2017 - 11:53 Permalink

surely BTCs fees and "difficulty" of use are intentional? Digital Gold or somesuch is the undercurrent I'm getting..AU is hard to deal with but that doesn't make it worthless..I can't buy anything with AU directly, nor can I cash it in easily, and it will never, ever be used as legal tender, but it's still worth what it is (and would be worth a shitload more if it weren't fucked over every day by paper). If a "plan" was to make BTC act like digital AU then that would be the tack I'd take. It's store of value over medium of exchange thing (and I'm not going down the cryptos as a store of value/wealth rabbithole - just making an observation)

In reply to by tmosley

Exponere Mendaces tmosley Mon, 11/20/2017 - 13:30 Permalink

The fees are under control. Lightning is 18 months ahead of schedule.BCH is a tool of Roger Ver and Jihan Wu, who specifically are trying to wrest control from Bitcoin. That's their stated purpose. That is why they are attempting to usurp the Brand and Ver is squatting on the {dot} com domain. Its also why Ver is listing a wallet that defaults to BCH - its all tactics to fool new people, funneling them into his land-grab alt-coin.And the fact they've pulled you in beyond the event horizon of reason is the most sad thing of all.You were an effective responder to a lot of the idiocy here on the comment forums, now you're just a reprogrammed BCH troll. You can still redeem yourself, even if your alt-coin won't.I still have hope you will, but you keep doubling-down on the same lines the BCH-ers are using in other forums, which are simply not true. 

In reply to by tmosley

blentus tmosley Mon, 11/20/2017 - 14:55 Permalink

I am still foaming at the mouth, when I read stupidity like "Commits != developers". Not only does that not make any sense, noone even talked about it. It's even worse if you start looking at commits. Let's have a lead developer that acts like a child and strips off names of BTC core author while taking their code. You realize that deadalnix takes a lot of stuff from core? You think he does things himself? If BTC core 'loses', all those developers will fuck off somewhere else and your BCH project will also die as a result. Non-technical people don't seem to care, they just want get-rich-quickly scheme.Also - who is "they", in your sentence anyway? Who is directing people to use LTC and DASH? Random people on twitter or reddit?BTC works just fine in practice, I have no idea what dreamworld you are living in. You really should try it, since it is obvious that you actually do not USE BTC for anything. You just seem to buy/sell it as panic kicks in.I am betting on LN over block size increase. Because it has a future and opens up tons of new possibilities. Block size increase is a linear thing which always ends up in the same place - nowhere.Also, could you, please, clarify who are those 'thinkers behind BCH', and what are those ways for them to win?I mean, you yourself claimed how second layer is easy to add to BCH, if needed - so if that is your/their master plan... whoa. They'll just steal the code from core, I am sure that's the master plan. If they don't kill BTC before that, in which case all Bitcoins will be fucked completely.I can't see any master plans on /r/btc or in BCH repos, I can't see anything else than same idiotic arguments being repeated all day long on /r/btc. I can see Craig and Roger talking same shit every day, lying about '$40 transcations', but there are no technical plans for future of any kind.In this week alone, you could see what is happening with Lightning, you could see BTC<->LTC crosschain swap (which can later be extended to other blockchains), you could see people testing Lightning network in real scenarios, you could see details on plans for combining CoinJoin and Confidential Transactions.And with BCH, you could just see same nuts repeating same shit all day long, without thinking future at all. Just to raise the BCH price temporarily. Code will write itself, of course. On their own bloody site, they have to link to research/testing being done by others (BU project + university), where they are testing 1GB blocks. Well, that's what they tested few days ago iirc. And that has no involment from BCH at all, BCH just has nothing else to show for future plans. Yes, 1GB blocks are going to make everything decentralized and scalable. Master plan.And let's not forget that person who BCH sheep adore so much, is not only a serial liar of worst kind, he has also applied for hundreds of blockchain related patents, working in tandem with Calvyn Ayre.Do you actually care about future of crypto currencies, or just want a quick fix?edit: Also, something that I like to point to 'purists'. In Satoshi's whitepaper, there are:0 instances of word 'cheap'0 instances of phrase 'low cost' or 'low-cost'3 instances of word 'fee', none of them related to or suggesting the cost of transactionThat's why I say it's like a fucking religion. BCH team interprets things as they see fit, in completely retarded ways. They will also go and nitpick Satoshi's posts from forums and choose ones that suit them, and somehow that is ok even if it is not in whitepaper. But any other arguments are bad - because they are not in whitepaper. Brilliant logic. Fucking highlander. There can be only one...

In reply to by tmosley

Buckaroo Banzai Green Bastard Mon, 11/20/2017 - 14:09 Permalink

Litecoin is fine for what it is (basically a BTC with larger block sizes, and a practical test vehicle for Lightning Network implementation) but BTC has the largest, most robust network, and is the de facto settlement vehicle of all the cryptocoins. All alt-coins are priced and traded on exchanges in BTC. Yes you can use tools like shapeshift or changelly to trade some altcoins for other altcoins directly, but the BitCoin is still the ultimate cryptocurrency to own.Ultimately LTC has the same limitations as BTC, just to a lesser degree. But that doesn't mean it isn't worth owning some.

In reply to by Green Bastard

blentus Buckaroo Banzai Mon, 11/20/2017 - 14:47 Permalink

There are around $670,000,000 Tethers.It is a miniscule fraction of BTC market cap, indeed, but if/when it explodes, people will panic and we'll experience Mt Gox v2.0 type of panic.mempool will also be overloaded again, people will panic even more, it will be in all the news, it will hurt image of all crypto currencies.[tinfoilhateon]It is, literally, as if someone is doing that on purpose.[/tinfoilhateoff]

In reply to by Buckaroo Banzai

tmosley Ramesees Mon, 11/20/2017 - 10:23 Permalink

I can't make recommendations, as the situation is too chaotic to say anything with high confidence, but I am holding BCH and IOTA as core positions, and have some in BTC to take advantage of the pump, profits from which I am siphoning off into my bank account.Even that may be too risky, to be honest. Watch Tether. If it falls below 90 cents, it's probably time to get out of the complex, absent your core coin positions.

In reply to by Ramesees