Millennials Have Ushered In The 'Baby Bust' Cycle

Negative Population Growth, Inc., has issued a November report warning that America is no longer making enough babies to keep pace with deaths. The report blames, the ‘baby bust’ phase on the millennial generation (1980-2000), who are having children at record low rates.

Their attitudes towards marriage, procreation, and materialism changed dramatically after the Great Recession when the economies of the world came to a screeching halt. After a decade of excessive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The millennials have been forced to take out an excessive amount of debt such as auto loans, consumer debt, and student loans in an era of wage stagnation. This has fundamentally changed the game for millennials and perhaps changed the course of the United States. The implications of falling birth rates in a low growth economic environment coupled with massive amounts of debt - is a perfect storm that will lead to the next crisis. 

Falling birth rates in the United States have been classified of what some call the ‘baby bust’. Like any bubble, there must be a bust cycle and when it comes to births in the United States — that time, is now. According to the report, some demographers are “freaked out by the falling birth rate, an occupational hazard for people who spend their professional lives scrutinizing population statistics”. As the demographic winds shift, the United States is preparing for a ‘Japanification’ period of lower birth rates and a much old generation to strain the economic and healthcare systems.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of babies born declined by 338,000 or 8.7% between 2007 and 2016. Over the period, the national fertility rate declined from 69.3 to a historic low of 62.0 in 2016. For more color, the peak was in 1960 at 118 after World war II, ever since it’s been in decline.

As a result, the national fertility rate (all ages) broke a bearish flag (chart below) and fell -11% between 2007 and 2016. To keep pace with deaths, moms need to have 2.1 births, but that is not the case today with 1.8.

“The fertility rate decline is driven entirely by millennial mothers in their teens and twenties,” said the report.


“Birth rates for all age groups of women under 30 fell to record lows in 2016,” it added.

Besides poor economic conditions and a transitioning economy, the report added the increased “availability and effectiveness of sex education and contraceptives for males and females” have played a large role in reducing the birth rate for millennials.

Despite demographers freaking about out by the falling birth rates, the report offers an insight into how others are dealing with the negative trend,

Economists, however, have made peace with the notion that a shrinking population is not necessarily a bad thing. While GDP may slow, a better measure of the country’s economic health – GDP per capita – can benefit.


This is especially relevant in a world where robots, AI, and other technologies threaten the jobs of many Americans

The United States is not alone in the demographic shift of less birth rates, as it’s evident below. Major developed economies and emerging growth economies are feeling similar pain.

The report says “we have been here before” relating today’s economic-stress to the 1930s and the late 1970s coinciding with ultra low brith rates for the younger generation. Interesting enough, the report asks: Is it different this time? 

As the paper suggests– it is different and millennials are increasingly delaying kids or just outright abandoning altogether.

The report lists four reasons why this time is different:

  • A 2016 study of Census data from Pew Research found nearly one-third of young adults (ages 18-34) live with their parents, slightly more than the proportion that live with a spouse or partner. Not since record keeping began in 1880 has living at home for this age group outpaced living with a spouse. “They’re concentrating more on school, careers and work and less focused on forming new families, spouses or partners and children,” Richard Fry, lead author of the Pew report, said of millennials. Although student debt is often blamed, it may not be the dominant factor: the trend is stronger for those without a college education.
  • When it comes to marriage, millennials say “I don’t” more than any previous generation. Research by the Urban Institute finds that if current trends continue, 30.7% of millennial women will remain single by age 40, approximately twice the share of their Gen-X counterparts. The data show similar trends for males. Marriage rates fell drastically during the Great Recession, but they had been declining for years prior to that event. At this point even a return to pre-recession levels will not prevent marriage rates among millennial women from falling below those of Gen-Xers by age 40.4 Ironically, the aversion of millennial females to marriage may reflect their economic strength vis a vis males: “Sharp declines in the earning power of non-college males combined with the economic self-sufficiency of women — rising educational attainment, falling gender gap and greater female control over fertility choices — have reduced the economic value of marriage for women.”
  • A cross-generational study conducted at Wharton School of Business found more than half (58%) of millennial female undergraduates do not plan to have children. That is nearly three-times the 22% of Gen-X female undergraduates who did not want children when surveyed in 1992. Results were similar for male students. (The researchers compared surveys of the Wharton graduating class of 1992 and 2012.) While Gen-X women felt “motherhood fulfilled their need to help others” millennial females believe they can serve the greater need by succeeding at work. For millennial men “doing good” is increasingly connected to creating greater balance between work and family. Not surprisingly, they are less likely to think of themselves as the sole breadwinner. Even millennials who do want children say they do not see a clear path toward it.
  • Immigrants are the wild card. They account for 15% of U.S. millennials, up from 6% of the prior generation.8 Although birth rates for foreign-born millennials are generally above those of native-born, a recent study by the Center for Immigration Studies finds that the gap is narrowing.9 From 2008 to 2015: birth rates for foreign-born women ages 15 to 19 fell 50.6% versus a 43% drop for native-born in that age cohort; birth rates for immigrant women 20 to 24 fell 40.5% versus a 28.5% decline for native-born. The Total Fertility Rate – a measure of the number of children a woman can be expected to have in her lifetime based on current patterns – fell 21.5% for immigrant women and 15.4% for native-born women over that period. The implication is clear: When it comes to family size, immigrant millennials have embraced the “smaller is better” ethos of the larger, native-born millennial community. That is good news to those of us who believe a smaller population is in the national interest.

Welcome to the new normal: Millennials will be the first generation that the American dream will most likely not be attainable, as show on the home ownership rate below. Since the real estate boom of the 2000s, homeownership rate for people under thirty-five has literally fallen off a cliff.  The report explores a number of factors of why this trend exists: student debt and the lingering impact of the Great Recession… 

Another new normal: With the introduction of Uber and Lyft fewer millennials are driving– leading to a shake up in the auto industry. The conventional wisdom among automakers are that millennials will unlock a new tranche of demand, but that narrative is going cold as the sharing economy disrupts.

Meanwhile, General Mills in 2016 ran a national advertising campaign targeting the millennial generation titled: ‘make more babies’… The type of conditioning is self-evident of one large corporation that is clearly aware of the low birth rate trend.

The Washington Examiner sums it all up,

The report explains the shift to smaller families is driven by the poor economy, broken American Dream, and job losses millennials witnessed growing up. 



Lost in translation Wed, 11/22/2017 - 18:33 Permalink

Enter tens of millions of fecund, 60-IQ Third World savages, coming to the banksters’ rescue.

Sorry, US taxpayer, but you’ll have to work even harder. Third World babies have many needs...

jeff montanye sun tzu Wed, 11/22/2017 - 23:02 Permalink

this has really been in the works since the invention of the birth control pill.  some women want no children, others want fewer than had been the rule prior.  the best i have seen on the topic is… is particularly good on policy recommendations for the aging population that characterizes the transition period, roughly now until mid century.  then the world's population begins to decline with really little to reverse or even slow it.  can't keep up with compound interest anymore, it would seem.

In reply to by sun tzu

zuuma Retired Guy Thu, 11/23/2017 - 08:43 Permalink

Interesting point, but false.Previous baby booms did not occur while (legal) abortions & the pill were around.Ladies would rather have cats around in their old age than bear and raise children. My 93 yo mom has many people around, checking on her and hanging out. Many of her contemporaries in her apartment complex (not assisted living - she's independent!) have nobody.Sad.Our coming robot masters will care for the few of us remaining as pets.

In reply to by Retired Guy

TheEndIsNear JohnG Thu, 11/23/2017 - 05:44 Permalink

"Gifted" you? Why do you consider grandchildren, or children for that matter, a "gift"? You are going to die regardless of how many offspring you have and they are going to be completely different individuals than yourself. Do you have illusions of immortality? Sorry, but it doesn't work that way.

I have never understood why anyone would want children. When my first wife began her push for me to tie the ball and chain of a 30 year mortgage and the expense of raising children around my neck, I saw it as a threat to my freedom and divorced her. As far as I can tell, the need to have children is a primeval genetic instinct necessary for the survival of the species and nothing more. Perhaps our brains have evolved to the point where in some of us at least, this primal instinct is overruled by reason and logic. Of course if everyone were like me the human race would not last long, which in my view is neither good nor bad.

I recommend everyone read "The Selfish Gene" by Richard Dawkins.…

In reply to by JohnG

EnragedUSMCExpat CJgipper Wed, 11/22/2017 - 21:57 Permalink

Mindless millennial propaganda from a parasitic wastrel dependent on and sucking off boomers.Not much longer though, we are will meet our responsibilities by eradicating you once and for all by any means necessary. The complete, Final Solution to the useless "millennial" wastrels and their LGBT faggot pedophile sycophants and rugmunchers.

In reply to by CJgipper

ZIRPdiggler EnragedUSMCExpat Thu, 11/23/2017 - 05:08 Permalink

You're 180 degrees wrong about that, soldier.  The boomers mortgaged our future and sold us out (I am a gen-X'er 40 something) for useless, endless wars and the hegemonic disaster capitalism model.  The priviledged boomers pissed away OUR entitlement money and they are the first ones to cry foul when they catch a hint of anything less than a full pension.  Guess what dickhead?  I pay obscene payroll taxes for future medicare that I will never see. I have to build my own life raft. So shut the fuck up.  I work in the medical field and I gotta say; the boomers are the most expensive, resource-draining, whiniest bunch of suck bags anyone would ever care to meet.

In reply to by EnragedUSMCExpat

Teja GUS100CORRINA Thu, 11/23/2017 - 04:55 Permalink

It is always simple to point to others in regards to the demographic nightmare. What have you done to relieve the economic stress for pregnant women loosing their jobs, for single mothers, for poor families with several children who need to pay for health insurance and education?Thank you for providing them with the worst politics in the western world.But what comes around, goes around, so they say.

In reply to by GUS100CORRINA

GreatUncle Bud Dry Wed, 11/22/2017 - 20:57 Permalink

Your whole concept is bullshit ... the CB's have been manipulating the economy for decades.They positioned the economy way back then for the then millenials / snowflakes to profit = the boomers of today.Straight after the 70's dropping the gold standard and relaxation on debt and the boomers were just lucky on how the CB's were going to pump the economy.That is what happened and the elite narrative to blame the boomers is total bullshit.Many boomers starting to retire now, unable to get on the ladder way back then and are just as poor as any millenial / snowflake.Millenials / snowflakes need to take it out on the CB's because they crave a boom and the CB's are unable to deliver.Millenials / snowflakes are just too fucking dumb to see a mechanism that spans way before they were born and then believing them MSM fail to put the blame on the real culrpits the CB's. They will also go along with the government / CB narrative and wonder why when they are 50+ they are going to live in poverty at the end of their miserable lives. 

In reply to by Bud Dry

jeff montanye GreatUncle Thu, 11/23/2017 - 04:59 Permalink

imo what is holding back the whole shebang is, unlike in prior deflationary depressions (1930's, last quarter of nineteenth century, 1840's, etc.), this time tptb fought debt repudiation even through bankruptcy like tigers since tptb are, here, too big to jail banks and their bondholders.  bankruptcy used to mean the slate was wiped clean, the banks themselves went bankrupt and baron rothschild's eighth wonder of the world, compound interest, was, for a moment, taken off the backs of the workers, including farmers and, really, owners of businesses that became insolvent, allowing an organic recovery to occur.  bankrupt entrepreneurs formed new companies and corporations.  new banks appeared.this time, nada so far, with the possible exception of iceland.  not to say the fdic, etc. couldn't have protected the insured depositors, brokered non cataclysmic assumption of banking franchises, etc.but they weren't allowed to do it because that would have meant firing management and wiping out bondholders.  and they weren't having any of it.

In reply to by GreatUncle

Justin Case algol_dog Wed, 11/22/2017 - 19:28 Permalink

It's typical of an empire in decline. The lying, fraud, theft, scandles, banana republic type elections, woars, exuberance, debt, manipulating the facts and lies become the norm. Education system is dumbed down to keep the number of graduates up. No failing grades in schools, because it hurts their self-esteem, date lines for hand in work aren't enforced, as long as it's handed in sometime before the year is over. So the kids are taught time lines are not importand.Whether it's wrong, or not relevent to what you were asked to do is not important as long as you did something. Yet they think they know everything already. Kids don't listen and this is why history pretty much repeats, because learnings from previous generations are not known by the new generation. Fat and lazy people.It's a cycle, like everything else on planet earth.Parents are big failures listening to psychiatrists that you have to talk to yoar kids not use corporal punishment. So there is basically no real concequence for their actions, can't touch me, I'll call the cops.Gender confusion is like a lost civilization, a sci-fi freak show or a circus with the bearded lady. Now that's normal. Earth the new Star Treck discovery of freaks.Currencies, gov'ts and empires come and go.

In reply to by algol_dog

True Blue European American Thu, 11/23/2017 - 03:33 Permalink

"Um, do I plug the USB in there or what?""Is there an app for this?" That said, I still maintain that the simple reason is 100+ years of deliberate theft via 'inflation' and 'income taxes' -which is slavery any way you cut it.People like to blame 'industrialization' or that we are no longer an 'agricultural economy that needs big families' for the declining birth rates -and they're wrong.We'd see the same demographic decline if we were still an agricultural society -and the government went around stealing 1/3 of every farmer's crops, and confiscating their seeds for the next year -which is exactly what taxes and inflation are doing ((by design))

In reply to by European American

ParkAveFlasher XqWretch Wed, 11/22/2017 - 18:46 Permalink

Say what you will about Mexicans, but they believe in breeding.  Jaunita puts out, and Carlos takes no pride in withholding his seed - he sows where he wills!Our women would rather wipe the asses of their bosses than change the diapers of their children, and our men are afraid to GTP (in the MAGA sense). This is what happens when women are in charge, everything gets confused.You know, the Bible warns of this.  Just sayin.

In reply to by XqWretch

GooseShtepping Moron ParkAveFlasher Wed, 11/22/2017 - 19:31 Permalink

Every time demographics are being discussed here, some illiterate blockhead like you has to come on and repeat the same baseless cliches that are refuted in the very article you are replying to.What part of TFR 1.8 do you not understand, dipshit? That's the total fertility rate for the entire USA, its Mexican population included, and it is far below replacement. You really are a dumbass.I don't want to be so harsh and insulting, but I don't know what else is going to get your attention if you won't listen to the facts. If you'd bothered to read the last few paragraphs of the article, you would see that the birthrates of the immigrate population are approximating to the birthrates of the native born population. In fact, they're dropping even no, there is no third world replacement going on as far as births are concerned. The birthrate is dropping all over the world. It is only the adult population that continues to increase.

In reply to by ParkAveFlasher

GooseShtepping Moron Nostradumbass Wed, 11/22/2017 - 20:21 Permalink

The comment was a reply to another comment which said "Bring on the Mexicans!" (as in Mexican immigrants to America), which itself was a reply to another comment which explicitly mentioned the genocide of the White race. So it's pretty clear in the context of the conversation that we were talking about Mexican immigrants to the United States.However, even if we were talking about Mexicans in Mexico, their TFR is only 2.24 (per the CIA World Factbook; 2.25 per this article), which itself is scarcely above replacement and hardly supports the contention that they "believe in breeding."Now go get your fucking shinebox.

In reply to by Nostradumbass