Loonie Soars After Canadian Data Crushes Expectations, 14 Sigma Jobs Beat

The loonie just exploded by 100 pips following a barrage of Canadian eco data, including GDP and employment, both of which crushed expectations.

September GDP rose 0.2% ,/ vs exp. 0.1%, and up from -0.1% in August, which means Q3 annualized GDP will be 1.7%.

But it was the jobs data which was particularly noteworthy; in fact it was borderline "Australian" in how ridiculous the print was: the employment rate in November was 79.5k, up from 35.3k last month, and 8 times higher than the consensus estimate. Not only was this the highest print since 2012, it was also a 14 sigma beat!

Canada also reported a 5.9% November unemployment rate, far below the 6.2% consensus estimate; this translated into total employment +2.1% or 390K from a year earlier.

Some more labor market details:

  • Full-time employment rose 29.6K in Nov., change in Oct. 88.7K
  • Part-time employment rose 49.9K in Nov., last month change was -53.4K
  • Private employment rose 72.4K in Nov., last month change was 39.1K
  • Public employment rose 10.6K in Nov., last month change was -4.5K
  • Self-employment fell 3.5K in Nov., last month change was 0.8K
  • Goods employment rose 37.4K in Nov., last month change was 33.9K
  • Services employment rose 42.1K in Nov., last month change was 1.4K
  • Total number of hours worked are up 1% y/y in Nov., +2.7% y/y in prior month
  • Average hourly wages of permanent employees are up 2.7% y/y in Nov., +2.4% y/y in prior month

In response to this stellar data, the USDCAD has plunged 100 pips, trading below 1.2800. With the loonie underperforming the major in recent weeks, is today's data the basis for a major reversal?


2_legs_bahhhhhd Omega_Man Fri, 12/01/2017 - 09:11 Permalink

It's all rainbows and unicorns under turdoh. We have money to piss away on just about every feel good, vote getting program in existence. Funny that the automatic revolving door at our hospital has been broken for over a year. I'm sure it's on the list to repair, what's 10-20k? We just blew billions on 150th birthday. Yesterday they were arguing about the finance minister cashing in 100,000's of shares four days before changing tax laws. It's like jake to inside trade, but you better be a fucking liberal.

In reply to by Omega_Man

Radical Marijuana Justin Case Fri, 12/01/2017 - 12:07 Permalink

http://www.comer.org/content/SupremeCourtDecision_4May17.htm Supreme Court of Canada Dismisses Constitutional Bank of Canada Case, Claiming It Is a Political Matter May 31, 2017 – After nearly 5.5 years of contentious litigation between the Committee On Monetary and Economic Reform (COMER) and the Government of Canada involving three separate Federal Court and two additional Federal Court of Appeal hearings resulting in contrary decisions, on May 4, 2017, the Supreme Court of Canada dismissed COMER’s “leave” (permission to appeal) application from the second judgment of the Federal Court of Appeal.

In reply to by Justin Case

litemine Fri, 12/01/2017 - 09:51 Permalink

The next Election will drop the Liberals right out to atleast 3rd place....ot even the opposition, the Conservatives will get in and after they repair the Can. Economy people forget....Rince/Repeat.

kavabanga Fri, 12/01/2017 - 10:12 Permalink

Loonie has just tested resistance at around 1.2900 and it appears to be holding. I got short 1,000 units here to play this as a range trade as we are at the top of the range. My hope is to hit the bottom of the range but it looks like there are two structure levels there. The plan is to close the position if price bounces on either of those levels. Stop loss is 20 pips above the range because if price hits that level then we have a breakout and I need to get out. Tight stop loss in this play gives a very favorable risk/reward setup (10 to 1 I think) but is a low probability trade.RSI is also promising, as well as Stochastic on a different chart. Let's see what happens. Targetting 1.2692Learn tech analysis) 

Is this name taken Fri, 12/01/2017 - 10:12 Permalink

Yesterday a loonie got me about .78 US. The loonine EXPLODES overnight! This morning it gets me about .78 US. I better postpone my trip to Canada until it comes back down to about .78 US.

Defiated Fri, 12/01/2017 - 10:38 Permalink

view from Canada here...One thing we like to do is follow the USA...you know..."Bullshit Fake Stats"....would love to see a 'list' of those jobsHere in Toronto....our biggest city...if you don't work for the government in some way...you know teachers, cops, doctors, municipal & provincial governmentoffices, etc.....then the job market is 'Grim'....minimum wage, contract, no benefit type temp jobs....lots of hiring sesonally at UPS, Walmart, etc..and still minimum wage jobs available at McDonalds & Tim Hortons (split shifts mind you)Our whole Toronto Private-Sector Economy is still relying heavily on the 'Housing bubble'...which relys on 'Immigration' where 4 families willlive in 1 house & pool their resources....a starter 'Single family' home, whether a town-house or semi-detached..still will cost you $700 K and theyare still selling..(not many available though)......Get over $850K and they are 'stagnant' unless in a good area....get over $1 million and youhave lots to choose from....Like you, our politician's and policy makers 'Can't Handle the Truth' & rarely see the average citizen's daily strugglesInstead we are 'fed' 'Bread & Circuses'....WOW!...look Trudeau is wearing 'Rainbow Socks' given to him by the LGBTQ community!...Prince Harryis engaged!...The new season of 'Vikings' is now on!.....I will retire in a few years...just in time methinks!