Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management
“When the smartest guys say we’re ninth inning,” bellowed Biggie Too in baritone, “we’re 7th inning, maybe 8th.” The S&P 500 finished November +2.8%, its eighth consecutive monthly gain, a refrain last heard in 2007. Year-to-date the index jumped +18.3%, the forward P/E is 19. Bitcoin popped +1,015% in that time. Market volatility faded to 50yr lows. $8trln of bonds carry negative yields. Interest rates are at 5,000 year lows. Economists forecast a booming 2018 global synchronized economic crescendo. And that was before America’s Senators approved a $1.5trln tax cut. “Late in the cycle, clever boys drown in dumb money,” rapped Biggie, chief global strategies for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. The crowd bounced, roared. Central bankers shuffled toward the exits. And backstage, into this extravaganza, One River warmed up, and launched our dedicated Long Volatility Fund.
“You see fat boy shot another missile over Japan?” asked my Uber driver, laughing. I joined right in. We were talking America, making it great again. His three kids are in active service - US Navy – he’s got every right to joke about the chubby Korean kid.
“You see Trump toy around with Chucky and Nancy?” he asked, jolly. “It’s not even fair, he’s five times smarter than both of them put together. He knows how to press their buttons and they take the bait every single time.” Schumer and Pelosi had responded to a twitter taunt by cancelling their White House meeting. The Donald left their seats empty, let the cameras roll, antagonizing his enemies, advancing his agenda.
“My wife can’t watch TV at work. She comes home every night dying to know what he did. And you know what?” he asked. I shrugged. “Every single day there’s something, usually lots of things, it’s constant entertainment.”
I admitted to checking Breitbart daily. InfoWars too. You can no longer understand America unless you do.
“You see the Indian thing?” The Donald awarded Navajo WWII veterans for their service. “Trump told them we have an Indian in the Senate, they call her Pocahontas!” he said, howling. “These liberal snowflake journalists asked the Indians if they were offended. They said hell no, they were ordered to yell Geronimo when they jumped outta airplanes!” he said, snorting, barely able to drive.
“You can’t make this stuff up!” Indeed. “Democrats talk about impeaching. They’re literally so dumb. He’s going to win again in a landslide.” I laughed, why not?
“And I can’t wait for this tax reform. I’m a trained economist you know, I know this stuff cold. It’s going to be like pouring gasoline on a fire,” he explained. “Trump promised us 5% GDP growth. Katie bar the door!”