"One Day Soon, The Sun Will Not Rise"

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

When the Q4 US resident population data is released, something that has not happened in the post WWII era will take place.   The population of adults aged 15-64 years old will decline.  This was not supposed to happen and will put an end to seven plus decades of continuous population growth which has meant a growing workforce, a growing consumer base, and growing tax base.  A growing core US population, something considered as sacrosanct as the sun rising, will not happen.  On a year over year basis, where there once were up to 3 million more homebuyers than the previous year, 3 million more car buyers than the year before, 3 million more potential customers...there will be likely be thousands fewer.

Many will assume this is a demographic issue of boomers exiting the working age population... but actually demographics is simply the early onset of a disease that will only progressively worsen. 

This is truly a population growth issue, not simply a demographic distribution problem.

The economic system the US and world have adopted are dependent on perpetual growth on a quarter over quarter and year over year basis.  Two negative quarters (or even zero growth) and a recession is called and all the Federal Reserve's and federal governments tools are employed.

Given the importance of growth, the most important factor in growing the economy is the rising demand represented by a growing population.  But the US fertility rate has been negative for 45 years (chart below) meaning the native population (plus immigrants) have continually failed to replace themselves.

This means US population growth has simply been a story of immigration. 

And until 2000, N. America was the primary destination for the majority of the world's immigrants.  However, since '00 and particularly since '05, the migration patterns have significantly changed.

From 1950 to 2000, there was a clear relationship of rising numbers of emigrants departing the Caribbean, Central America, South America alongside rising quantities of immigrants entering the US.   However, the massive inflow of migrants from 2000 through 2005 was a one off. 

The inflow of migrants into the US since '05 has slowed significantly while the outflow from Mexico (the primary source of global immigration from 1950 to 2005) has fallen 90%.

In a nutshell, since 2005, Mexican's (on a net basis) have nearly ceased leaving Mexico.  A fire hose of primarily 15-45yr/old population growth that for 50+ years was departing Mexico and spraying into America has been reduced to a trickle.

What was from 1995 to 2005 a net inflow from Mexico into the US of perhaps a half million annually had decelerated to perhaps fifty thousand.

And best guestimates have it that during the current 2015-2020 period, Mexican's (on a net basis) are leaving America.

The impact since the immigration flows have slowed have been quite dramatic.  US fertility rates continue to fall while stocks blast into outer space (chart below of Wilshire 5000 representing all publicly traded US equities vs. US fertility rates). 

This is unique in that during each previous bubble run-up, fertility rates rose as the population felt more capable and willing to start families.  The current period seems to indicate the wealth and recovery since '08 are only true for a diminishing number.

The chart below is US household net worth versus the fertility rate.  The theme of recovery represented by the 40%+ increase in US household "wealth" above the '08 bubble peak is entirely inconsistent with fast falling fertility rates and large declines in immigration since '08.

Couple the slowing immigration with the long flattening US childbearing population (chart below).  The year over year change in that population peaked in 1975, adding 2.3 million, and the most recent uptick likely peaked in 2011 and the growth is again decelerating until it turns negative around 2030.  As an aside, the annual childbearing growth is likely half of what is estimated below.

Combine a flat childbearing population with negative fertility rates, plus waning immigration, and the engine to a growing American consumption based economy is running on vapors.  The same is true globally, detailed (HERE).

This is the story behind the twisted economy and convoluted (decidedly un-free) markets we are currently experiencing. 

This situation has no easy or painless resolutions nor any true means to invest (there are many means to game the actions of federal governments and central banks but few means to truly organically invest).

Comments

SixIsNinE Stuck on Zero Wed, 12/06/2017 - 18:48 Permalink

FDA & DEA just "granted" from their SkyBox Perch the Love Drug MDMA approval for BREAKTHROUGH therapy treatment for PTSD.another step or two and we get it OTC with a note from our good Doc friends.Music Medicine -= Miracles. the Loving of Ecstasy is needed -   the Hearts of Stone occupying the world these days could be replaced with Hearts of Flesh. very real gents & dames....which is why of course I have dedicated my life to understanding the drug war & human consciousness - and whyultimately we must put the DEA out of their misery and replace their leadership (or more accurately, NO leadership) MAPS.org --   just got an email today, they have a matching grant offer going on NOW - help them go the next mile overcoming the coke & heroin dealing DEA & pentagon to provide the Miracle Medicine MDMA.How many veterans who watched people blown to pieces in Iraq do you want to help today?get busy and get over to MAPS.ORG and help out 

In reply to by Stuck on Zero

doctor10 SixIsNinE Wed, 12/06/2017 - 19:26 Permalink

make people life long tax mules, regulate the shit outta them and their communities, devalue their currency, collapse the rule of law into cronysim, let illegal aliens suck off tax dollars and  do as they damn well please..take the nations treasury to war for 15 years and have the stones NOT to bring home the loot...and then they won't reporduce..imagine that!!!/s

In reply to by SixIsNinE

shamus001 doctor10 Wed, 12/06/2017 - 20:03 Permalink

Hell, in the past, when troops that took bullets, bombs, shrapnel and all the psychological baggage that came with going to war for .Gov, they could at least bring back a foreign rifle, helmets, etc from the battlefield.  Now they don't even get medical treatment for the damage suffered.  No trinkets, not even a reach-around!

In reply to by doctor10

Things that go bump Gaius Frakkin'… Wed, 12/06/2017 - 20:51 Permalink

Gaius Frakkin there's a cost to that for you guys too. You'd be expected to step up and support a woman and all the children she can bear, just like it was in the 50's. A fertile woman can produce a lot of offspring over the span of about 30 years. I went to school with twins who were from a family with 20 children. That was merely slightly unusual, but 8 children wasn't. You could be raising (and supporting) children until you're 70.

In reply to by Gaius Frakkin'…

The Ram Another Solo Wed, 12/06/2017 - 20:43 Permalink

Besides the obvious economic stuff, let's think about the impact of technology.  Men have a lot more to do today.  It's easier to communicate, travel, and with many dating sites, it is much more easy to get laid.  If you can keep tagging some decent poontang well into your 40's and fifties, why get married.  Hey, when I was in my 20's and 30's (pre-internet), it was really hit or miss trying to hook up in some bar or sporting event.  Dating sites made it so much easier to weed through tons of chicks in minutes and my score rate went through the roof. Yes, I know this is just one aspect of a complex phenomenon, but there is just a lot more shit to do today.....if you are healthy and have a decent job.  I don't want to return to the 'good old days' of the 50's and 60's with 3-4 kids/family.  My parents worked like demons to raise us and quite frankly, I am not interested in doing that.  The planet will be just fine.  The population has been peaking and declining for 100's of thousands of years.  The problem is that humans have a very, very short expiration period.  We just don't get to stick around for the full show.

In reply to by Another Solo

Tallest Skil CaptOveur Wed, 12/06/2017 - 23:13 Permalink

Cry harder, JEWISH PAID SHILL. We've read the Talmud. We know what it says. We know who founded the Frankfurt School. We know they followed Sabbati Zevi. We know every single fucking step down the line, both of your history and of your plan. We know who owns the banks. We know the purpose of the BIS and IMF. We know about Oded Yinon. We know why the UN exists.And we still have the guns. Die before we get our hands on you, or you're going to wish a certain historical event HAD happened.

In reply to by CaptOveur

Captain Chlamydia Tallest Skil Wed, 12/06/2017 - 18:02 Permalink

@birddog27 - Georgia guidestones? I'm all for it. Humans are a virus. Plastic and antibiotics in the oceans, in your fish, in the meat we eat, in our testicles and ovaries, JerUSAlem, Wall street vs Main street, EUSSR, Fukushima, ISIS, chemicals from Monsanto everywhere.... the only thing working is the military- industrial complex. Human race is doomed. We are fucked. It will be a miracle if sapiens'll reach 2100.

In reply to by Tallest Skil

Gobble D. Goop Captain Chlamydia Thu, 12/07/2017 - 00:30 Permalink

You left out the gulf oil spill which is still leaking and being treated with Corexant.  And I'll throw in the CERN Hadron Collider for good measure. (They didn't build something that big, complex, and expensive JUST for funsies)But don't worry.  Jesus Christ is coming back before theres "no flesh saved alive on earth." and one thing is for certain, he's gonna be one pissed off son of a bitch.He's coming to kick ass and chew bubble gum, and he's all out of bubble gum.  Justice WILL be served.  Hang on to your hats comrade citizens, it's gonna get bumpy...

In reply to by Captain Chlamydia

Tallest Skil liverdiefree Wed, 12/06/2017 - 23:14 Permalink

Cry harder, JEWISH PAID SHILL. Your lack of an argument fills me with laughter. We've read the Talmud. We know what it says. We know who founded the Frankfurt School. We know they followed Sabbati Zevi. We know every single fucking step down the line, both of your history and of your plan. We know who owns the banks. We know the purpose of the BIS and IMF. We know about Oded Yinon. We know why the UN exists.And we still have the guns. Die before we get our hands on you, or you're going to wish a certain historical event HAD happened.

In reply to by liverdiefree