Zandi Warns "Job Market Feels Like It Might Overheat" As Manufacturing Jobs Grow At Fastest Pace On Record

Following October's better-than-expected surge in ADP employment data (as goods-producing jobs soared), November was expected to see some slowdown, and it did, printing right on expectations at +190k (close to NFP's 195k exp).

“The labor market continues to grow at a solid pace,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.


“Notably, manufacturing added the most jobs the industry has seen all year. As the labor market continues to tighten and wages increase it will become increasingly difficult for employers to attract and retain skilled talent.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said,


“The job market is red hot, with broad-based job gains across industries and company sizes. The only soft spots are in industries being disrupted by technology, brick-and-mortar retailing being the best example. There is a mounting threat that the job market will overheat next year.”   

Of note perhaps is Nov 2017's ADP print is 16% lower than Nov 2016's

The breakdown shows drops only in Information and Construction industries.

Goods producing job growth slowed as services picked up...

But Manufacturing jobs added 40k in November - the most on record...


Finally, we note that ADP's Mark Zandi warned CNBC that "the job market feels like it might overheat."

     ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 190,000 Jobs in November


Escrava Isaura spastic_colon Wed, 12/06/2017 - 11:34 Permalink

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Manufacturing growth is probably hurricane related. Still, employment reports are not worth the paper that is written on it, not matter if the President is liberal or conservative.  

In reply to by spastic_colon

luckylongshot Shocker Wed, 12/06/2017 - 10:08 Permalink

Overheating is not possible with a 21.6% unemployment rate-  21.6% is the actual unemployment rate if you make an apples with apples comparison with historic figures,(Shadowstats). 21.6% unemployment last occurred in the 1930s depression (which is not remembered for its overheated job market- hence the name depression!).

In reply to by Shocker

JMT Wed, 12/06/2017 - 09:30 Permalink

This is happening even in most white collar office postions as well even in IT, Finance & Accounting.  All three pay well over $100,000 (in IT & Web  Development someone with over 5 years experience can make $200,000 a year in Boston or NYC) and still most job posts get close to zero applicants or applicants who meet even one or two of the required criteria.  Even now college grads who barely scrape by with a 2.0 GPA for an average state school are getting multitude of job offers (paying close to $100,000 a year) if they majored in any of the three fields above.. Even UPS cannot find any interested applicants which is why drivers are being forced to work 70 hours a week (with all those extra hours paid at time and a half )

adr JMT Wed, 12/06/2017 - 11:22 Permalink

$200k in Downtown Boston is essentially living in poverty. When a 800sq ft home in Arlington costs $750k, you aren't living well even with a $200k salary.Most big companies in Boston pay $80k for a 3-5 year IT pro. Anything within the I-95 ring requires at least $250k a year, inside I-495 requires $150k.  You'll have to go 40 miles west to find something livable and you better be of South Asian or Hispanic descent, because that will be the majority of the people living in your town. 

In reply to by JMT

pitz JMT Wed, 12/06/2017 - 12:56 Permalink

Not even remotely close to being true.  The Boston/NYC IT job market is a dead zone, and most actual positions that exist are given to foreign nationals on H-1B, not to Americans.  They need to import and place 100k+ of them a year after all.  $200k/year, wow, you really are full of shit.  

In reply to by JMT

MK ULTRA Alpha Wed, 12/06/2017 - 09:34 Permalink

Just wait, the 20% tax cut and capital expenditure write off for small and mid sized firms will cause an economic boom. 2018 will be over 3% GDP growth. This country hasn't had a 3% GDP growth rate in over 8 years. Small and mid size firms are the growth engine of job creation, not large multinationals.

Disgruntled Goat Wed, 12/06/2017 - 10:39 Permalink

So with Labor Participation rates at 1970s lows, we have a job market ready to "overheat" ?Many wonder about the rise of crypto currencies. Its simply a reaction to assholes like this, spewing any bullshit that will benefit their own book.

Aerows Wed, 12/06/2017 - 10:41 Permalink

"As the labor market continues to tighten and wages increase it will become increasingly difficult for employers to attract and retain skilled talent"Pay people more and treat them like human beings, and you will have NO difficulty attracting and retaining skilled talent.Of course, this seems like a transparent call to apply for more H1-B Visas.  Or they are simply out of their minds with these estimates.Probably both.

pitz Aerows Wed, 12/06/2017 - 13:00 Permalink

The lack of professionalism at many of these employers who are claiming 'shortages' is right over the top.  Most claim they can't find people, yet when good people apply, they hear back nothing.  Its mostly a ruse to curry favour for importing more people from the land of curry.

In reply to by Aerows

adr Wed, 12/06/2017 - 11:16 Permalink

WHAT?????Well I guess they count all those Gigafactory workers as manufacturing. Musk probably fires and rehires them every month to pad his bullshit. LOOK I CREATE 10K JOBS EVERY MONTH!!!!Wow. Must be why all I see are abandoned factories everywhere I go and more closing up shop every month. A company called Mexichem built a new building though. It used to be called something different but they aren't even hiding it anymore. From the looks of it the workforce is illegals only.