Where The Jobs Were In November: Who's Hiring... Who Isn't

Assuming that the BLS' estimate of avg hourly warnings growing only 0.2% in November is accurate, it would imply that - as has often been the case - the bulk of job growth in November took place in minimum-paying and other low-wage jobs. However, a breakdown of jobs added by industry shows the contrary to expectations, the bulk of new job creation, and 3 of the 4 top category, were not in the "low wage" bucket. In fact, as shown below, with the exception of Education and Health jobs which rose by 54K in November, Manufacturing (+31K), Professional and Business Services (+27), and Construction (+24) were the fastest growing occupations in the previous month.

For those wondering, yes waiters and bartenders did hit a new all time high of 11.783 million in November, an increase of 18.9k for the month.

Furthermore, according to Southbay Research hurricanes boosted the number:

  • Specialty Trade Construction (+23k) - this is the sector that handles the interiors, electricals, and so forth
  • Food Services (+21k)

On the negative side, consumer spending does not appear to be driving much hiring

  • Retail (+19K)
  • Temp workers (+18K)
  • Leisure & Hospitality (+14K) and that includes a hurricane boost

Additionally, white collar hiring was up strongly (Technical services +23K) and Healthcare (+40K). Meanwhile, as SouthBay cautions, small business hiring doesn't seem to be materializing.  This could be less demand (NFIB, JOLT and other surveys point to strong hiring desire) and more about supply.  If so, that's inflationary.

Finally, as Bloomberg shows, below are the industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the most recent month: monthly growth rates are shown for the prior year.