Bitcoin Futures Stabilize At 8% Premium To Spot As 'No Brainer' Shorts Fail To Appear

Despite broadly-spewed sentiment last week that Bitcoin futures would herald the end of Bitcoin as 'shorts' could finally capitalize on the 'tulipmania', for now, they have failed to turn up as the January-expiring futures are holding a 8% premium to spot prices and remain up around 19% from their opening print overnight.

Futures are holding around a $1000-$1300 premium to spot for the last few hours - implying quite a serious 'term structure' for Bitcoin credit.

Furthermore, instead of stabilizing Bitcoin as some had suggested, futures were actually more volatile than spot...

“It is rare that you see something more volatile than bitcoin, but we found it: bitcoin futures,” said Zennon Kapron, managing director of Shanghai-based consulting firm Kapronasia.

As Reuters reports, The roughly $1300 difference reflects not only the novelty of the asset but also the difficulty of using the cash-settled futures to trade against the spot, strategists said.

“In a normal, functioning market, good old arbitrage would settle this,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Hellerup, Denmark, said by email. 

 

“If they were deliverable you could arbitrage the life out of it.”

Having crashed the CBOE website and been haklted twice in its first 24 hours, it has been anexciting debut for sure, but not quite what the 'experts' in the status quo expected...

“The premiums have so far been very high, demonstrating that few want to take the short side of the trade,” said Altana Digital Currency Fund manager Alistair Milne, whose fund has $35 million in assets under management.

Volume remains de minimus for now - around 2,878 contracts traded so far (or around $50 million notional)...

That is around 2% of global Bitcoin trading volume since the open.

“We’re in the early stages here, and there’s not enough professional liquidity from the big market makers who can provide depth and hold in the movements,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda Corp. “It’s going to be a learning curve.”

Comments

Code Duello joak Mon, 12/11/2017 - 11:48 Permalink

The sun hasn't even set on the first day of the first bitcoin future's trading and Tyler declares that gratuitous short sellintg has failed to materialize.How about we wait till the more robust contract offered by the CME begins to trade - in about a week - before we conclude that btc short sellers are mythical?

In reply to by joak

CPL Arrow4Truth Mon, 12/11/2017 - 10:57 Permalink

With bitcoin we'll have one equation solved that'll benefit everyone in a completely and total transpearent manner, that is "How does reality work?". I think that's worth a bit more than jew confetti or central banks for most people if taking the million year long view.  Then again, the answer that comes out it might just turn into the hitch hikers guide to the galaxy, and it spits out the plans for a bigger question to figure out.  Either way, it'll keep the philosophers and religious loons discussing things for a long time to come.  And we'll have a massive distribute super computer acting as a bridge to the AI in the works since there is no person living or dead that will be able to manage the volume of data that's estimated to come out of the final BTC rendered to generate the key for the lock the crypto contains.  Even with it running at 12000 PetaH/s, it's still not fast enough to finish it.  Then again, one door opens usually to another and always leads to more interesting math questions.

In reply to by Arrow4Truth

Iconoclast421 Mon, 12/11/2017 - 08:37 Permalink

"Altana Digital Currency Fund manager Alistair Milne, whose fund has $35 million in assets under management."

lol that's a peasant fund.

And wtf is this less than 3000 contracts traded? That is nothing. Why so little volume?

Dave the jew Mon, 12/11/2017 - 08:43 Permalink

The 18th is the day! I see it going even higher . Why not. Good luck to them. But don't cry if it pops , you win some you loose some . 1 trillion market cap coming ?! Around 60k ? Madness some might say ?I'm happy for the lads who have seen this from the beginning, good luck to you .

silverer Mon, 12/11/2017 - 08:45 Permalink

See? They are counting on shorts for the psychological purpose of making people think it will go up and down from here, hoping people won't believe it will only just climb higher. Well, what should be getting shorted is equity stocks, not Bitcoin. At least not yet. We know the deal.

Pol Pot Mon, 12/11/2017 - 08:45 Permalink

Let's try a variation of Ron Paul's question.
Your dying rich uncle is leaving you a trust fund, that you can not touch for ten years after his death, that will be funded with $10,000,000. He asks you choose either that it will be fully funded with gold coins or bitcoin. Which will you choose.
Up vote for gold...
Down for bitcoin.

BurningBetty Pol Pot Mon, 12/11/2017 - 08:50 Permalink

People are making this as "you have to choose"..why? If you are smart you just put some in BTC or other altcoins and some in PM...and then some in cash....and then some in physical goods as wine.....and then some for trading etc.The world we live is in quite dynamic. IF you start thinking in dynamic terms I guess you will be rewarded. Nothing is ever black and white. Some people choose to speculate with all they have in CCs. It may pay off huuuuuugely, but if SHTF, you're done. It all comes down to choice. Spreading the risk here and there reduces the severity of the downfall.

In reply to by Pol Pot

therover Mon, 12/11/2017 - 08:46 Permalink

The huge holders of BTC will jump on the short side when they feel enough sheep have been hearded. They will short and start dumping....making fake money hand over fist.  

wmbz Mon, 12/11/2017 - 08:46 Permalink

Bitcoin may just cruise to $100,000.00 or $1,000,000.00 why not?The entire world is off it's rocker, not one thing suprises me any more. I've wrong for so long about human sanity, I begining to think I am the crazy one.