How The Crypto Market Behaves - "It's A Damn Cycle, Stupid"

Authored by Bruce Hunt via Hackernoon.com,

TL;DR

  • Btc leads bull rally.
  • Top altcoins follow behind bitcoin.
  • Majority of altcoins rally behind bitcoin and top altcoins.
  • Huge corrections begins.
  • Btc corrects, new floor price.
  • Majority of altcoins follow, new floor price as well.
  • Drought for months to a year.
  • Crypto space waits for “huge event” to build momentum from.
  • Rinse and repeat

Photo by @bitcoin.day (unknown source). Contact me if this image belongs to you for proper attribution.

I will always be proud of buying into Bitcoin around $100, just as I will always be proud of my ability to see past the short term and hodl. Having witnessed and participate in bitcoin leading the bull rally back in 2013 to $1,000+ per bitcoin was probably the greatest bitcoin moments of my life. It was better than sex, and even better than buying the bottom.

Tweet by @Arjunbj on Twitter

I could not even describe the stage of euphoria everyone was in. You just had to be there to truly know what it was like. It was a very different experience than today’s new all time high and bull rally. I mean, this was the time when people were skeptical about Bitcoin and it was considered a fraud, anyone who touched bitcoin was a criminal. It was called internet money, or magic money. This was the time when CNBC and other major news outlet would not even cover Bitcoin unless it was about “Dread Pirate Roberts” and “Silk_Road” or other crime-related news associated with Bitcoin.

This was the time when we only had the Winklevoss Twins publicly supporting Bitcoin and involuntarily becoming the face of Bitcoin. This was the time when we didn’t have Venture Capitalists investing in it, when Wall Street didn’t trade it, when the Silicon Valley talents were too busy working on Facebook, Snapchat, Uber, Airbnb and etc to “disrupt” the world we know today.

This was the time, when the word “crypto” was short for cryptography, not fucking digital currencies!

And we didn’t have #Cryptotwitter! We had a handful of exchanges with trollboxes and IRC to orchestrate our ‘pump and dump’.

Today, we have bitcoin futures for Wall Street to play with, crypto funds making accredited investors richer, venture capitalists backing and investing in ICOs, Silicon Valley projects and talents transitioning into crypto, and we have banks exploring blockchain technology and making patents in hopes to monopolize blockchain technology for rich ivy-leagued white men only.

Now back to my headline. I mentioned my personal experiences to let you know that I have been there, I WAS THERE, and I think I have more authority on crypto than James Altucher and Tai Lopez combined. So listen to me when I write stuff:

How I think this crypto market behaves:

1) Bitcoin leads the bull rally.

FOMO (Fear of missing out) occurs, non-stop media news coverage, notable bitcoin/crypto figures on television, traditional finance experts analyzes bitcoin’s trend, crypto twitter explodes, new mainstream investors come to stomp coinbase, coinbase loses.

2) Bitcoin reaches new all time high.

People are in stage of euphoria, more hype, more new mainstream investors pouring money into crypto, more figures being interviewed on television, and self-proclaimed bitcoin/crypto experts comes out of their shells.

3) Bitcoin’s price somewhat “stabilizes”, this time its above $14,000+.

The “I told you so” people come out. And,

Tweet by @Yamasleezy on Twitter

4) A handful of solid altcoins rally behind Bitcoin, $ETH & $LTC leading the altcoins this time.

FOMO continues, reaching new crypto market cap ATH (all time high). Euphoria continues.

5) Top altcoins “somewhat” stabilizes, also reaching new all time high.

The frenzy continues.

Newly minted millionaires and notable figures come out and preaches that blockchain technology and crypto is not about just money, that it is about just being part of the revolution:

Okay…

6) Majority of cryptocurrencies follow.

People buy the cheapest coins in hopes that they go up as well (in which they do, even the dead coins listed on small exchanges get in on the action with $100k+ volume of trading activities in 24 hours).

7) Majority of crypto including Bitcoin and top altcoins price stabilize.

People settle down, hype activities fade, crypto social media, news media shows sign of slowing down.

Millionaires and notable crypto figures come out and warn people the “dangers and risks” involved when investing in cryptocurrencies because they have nothing to say.

8) HUGE Correction starts

Bitcoins and altcoins starts trending down.

PANIC SELL!

Continues to fluctuates for weeks to months, until finding its new floor price, it is usually nowhere near its ATH.

Bitcoin’s first biggest rally was $1000+, when correction started, it went down as low as $200, and finding its new floor price at $400-$600.

9) Crypto depression

Drought for months to a year.

People start regretting not taking profits, not even 30% of their portoflio.

People back to bitching at ICOs and teams because the price is not moving up.

Just a lot of angry people in crypto when we are in the state of “depression”.

10) Back to step 1, rinse and repeat.

Photo by RyKnow on Stocktwits

 

Comments

SixIsNinE God Emperor Fri, 12/15/2017 - 20:15 Permalink

speaking of bodybuilders,

i happened to see an update on THE Mr. Olympia
Ronnie Coleman.
freaking sad. the guy won like 8 O's - today he can barely walk and may have almost no feelin in legs. lots of back surgeries. damn.
he was THE fina Monster, but lifting for the #s and external physique - if he had done yoga instead, it would be a totally different story.

Frank Zane update - the dude STILL looks good, around 70 - he was famous for being non-juiced.

In reply to by God Emperor

CPL Fri, 12/15/2017 - 20:16 Permalink

Ground floor is still there and once this happens, everything changes.  Ain't seen nothing yet, going to be super cool.Otherwise if looking for a stable market platform that has a decent uptime to purchase Bitcoin, LiteCoin, Etherum, BCH and BCG Quadriga CX is available for Canadians and International customers.  Instant purchases can be done with Interact online and the usual methods of capital transfer since the biggest complaint people seem to be having is speed of getting capital to figure out how they can use it/play with it.So before thinking about jumping feet first into a fluffy startup in a voliatle market, stick to basic approaches of first understanding how the capital works in a slow, safe and boring manner before playing in the startup casino.  It is a wild west and boring/dependable/measured is vastly superior to the quick fix as the Bitcoin market place continues to grow organically to meet real business needs.  Until it eventually consumes the entire marketspace under a tight, transpearent and secure roof.Quadriga CX...Conservative old school trade platform and it works well.

Silver Savior Fri, 12/15/2017 - 19:58 Permalink

It was funny earlier today I was looking at the world coin index and a typo had a coin at something like $36,000 per coin with a market cap of over a trillion and its like a $15 coin. At first I believed it. Think the name was Monaco . Not sure I spelled that right.Anything really could happen.

freak of nature monero Sat, 12/16/2017 - 02:10 Permalink

Most of the major platforms/blockchains are a safe choice, as they attempt to solve similar or different issues in different ways. I found keeping an eye out for new entrants in the top 100 and researching why is a good routine. ADD generation means that bottom half of the top 100 market cap list changes and changes frequently. Copy paste from folio manager, this is the current bunch which brought great returns.ETH, GUP, XRP, XRB, BCH, RDN, ZEC, QTUM, ADA, BQX, NEO, BTG, EOS, POWR, EDG, DASH, XMR, XEM, LTC, WAVES, MONA, FUN, XLM, MANA, IOTAThe only 2 here I wouldn't recommend are Gup, which I'm only in for a free split on the 22nd creating Qgup for the qtum chain and Mana. Mana is probably the biggest indicator for me as to this thing being in a bubble ready to go pop. It's a vr world similar in a way to second life, which has a market cap of 250 million. For those not familiar with games market this is almost twice the largest crowd funded game in history - Star Citizen, and is 10 million away from the money invested into GTA 5, including marketing expenses. Oh and they don't have a product yet.

In reply to by monero

freak of nature Silver Savior Sat, 12/16/2017 - 01:42 Permalink

Oh Monaco. Back when they launched they botched quite a few things (one of which was a promised VISA availability on their cards), but the deal must have fallen through in the last minute. The kids had a fit and pulled out tanking price, majority of which happened in about an hour.Also, unless I'm reading this wrong the "we are here" chart is not right. From what I've read dotcom bubble was 3 trillion and lost 1.7 trillion over the course of a few months. Anyone have actual numbers from a reputable site (not cnn)?We're already over half trillion in cryptos, 400 million of which in the last month or so, so rapidly approaching the pullout mark. I guess with inflation and the fact there's a lot of cheap money pumped out over the last few years it could get much higher, but I have my doubts. My bet is SEC announces exchange regulations, the market tanks for a while, then slowly starts its climb again after the dust settles.

In reply to by Silver Savior

Wild E Coyote Fri, 12/15/2017 - 19:58 Permalink

The more I read such article, the more Istay away from Bitcoin, and stick to actual commodity trading. I buy coffee from Indonesia and sell to Eurasian Union. Small 5% profit every 2 months. But enough. I don't buy this 1000% profit stories. Sorry to bitcoin lovers.