Bitcoin Futures Crash Over $2000 From Open, Converge To Bitcoin Spot

Update: Bitcoin and Bitcoin Futures have collapsed since the futures opened...

Dropping over $2200 to converge with spot...

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Both CME and CBOE Bitcoin Futures contracts opened above $20,000 this evening (with Bitcoin spot hovering around $19,000). However, as soon as trading started, Bitcoin futures got hammered lower.


Those expecting a surge in futs volumes on the CME vs the CBOE will be disappointed:

In fact, spoting actual trades in the first few minutes of trading is not heavy to say the least. Obviously Jan is seeing all the volume...

And March not so much... (let alone the $1200 bid-offer spread)

The lack of trading will likely be a surprise to those who were expecting a more "vigorous" futures launch on the CME, such as Brooks Dudley, vice president of risk in New York at ED&F Man Capital Markets who told Bloomberg that "CME’s bitcoin contract may not be first, but they are a larger futures clearinghouse and we are looking forward to our clients trading their product on Sunday evening. Not all market participants have been able to short the Cboe bitcoin futures. We have allowed our clients to go long or short to take advantage of dislocations between the futures and the underlying spot market.

For now, nobody appears to be taking advantage of anything.

Incidentally, here is the (declining) Cboe XBT futs volumes in the first week of trading.

Finally, for those who missed it, here is JPM's take on CME vs Cboe futs:

  • With CME Bitcoin futures set to begin trading on 18th December, there will be competition between the two exchanges to attract volumes. Similar to the CBOE contract, the CME futures are cash settled, and after reviewing the initial margin requirement ahead of launch the CME raised it this week from 35% to 47% for speculative accounts, modestly higher than the CBOE’s
    44% initial margin requirement.
  • There are some differences in the contracts worth noting, however. The settlement price of the CME futures will be based on a weighted average of prices from several exchanges (including Bitstamp, GDAX, itBit and Kraken), rather than a single exchange. The settlement dates of the CME futures will also extend further ahead to March, June, September and December. These factors, along with the fact that the CME is a larger exchange, could give it an advantage in terms of attracting trading volumes.


HRClinton ebworthen Sun, 12/17/2017 - 21:44 Permalink

Re "Tulips!  Black tulips for sale!  Get 'yer black tulips here!"Since you're clueless regarding the Tulip Mania, let me fill you in...1. It was geographically localized to Holland.2. Black tulips were bid up sky high, under the false impression (deliberate propaganda) that supply was limited and could not be increased. 3. They were plants, i.e. a Precious Commodity -- and not Currency.4. About the time that the mania reached crazy heights, the Supply was suddenly expanded, and the panic set in.Your analogy is not comparable at all. It is merely the lazy thinker's way of throwing sand at the wall -- to see how much sticks. 

In reply to by ebworthen

DownWithYogaPants HRClinton Sun, 12/17/2017 - 22:38 Permalink

Appears you have all missed the significance here.  They can't manipulate it so it mathematically has to go to spot!If it is such a great short then prove it and short it. Make your millions.  And while you are at it since you don't like fiat please forward me your FRNs as they are not much different from BTC. ( Except for the part about not being controlled by the FedRes ) 

In reply to by HRClinton

Son of Captain Nemo Citxmech Sun, 12/17/2017 - 19:15 Permalink

"You guys do realize that they're talking about the futures market for bitcoin, not the acual market price of bitcoin, right?"

You guys do realize that the futures markets for bitcoin were created to inflate the price of bitcoin and fuck up it's actual worth just like everything else "futures" trading does for market speculation everywhere else -right?

Fixed it!

In reply to by Citxmech

DownWithYogaPants Citxmech Sun, 12/17/2017 - 22:44 Permalink

They are too emotionally invested in gold to react rationally / logically around Zh.  It's pity because I would like to see some good alternative cases put forth against bitcoin / CC et al but they just keep up with the little to no diligence argument of "Muh gold!  BTC is fiat!" with no real additional cases being propounded by the author or the commenters.

In reply to by Citxmech

shamus001 Blano Sun, 12/17/2017 - 23:56 Permalink

Since were having this theological discussion about "demand for delivery of fiat and not actual bitcoin" let me ask you this....?  What is the value of bitcoin if not in fiat terms?  does it have a purpose?  And don't tell me someone can take it for their potatoes and hold it, then swap it, because the same could be said for lint.  What makes bitcoin so much more valuable than any other generated thousands of crypto out there?  Why does it deserve to be valued (in fiat) higher than all the gold in existance?I can tell you that gold works wonders in my mouth, I enjoy wearing it, it has industrial use, and has proven to last longer than the pyramids (the same will not be said for any technology, at ANY GIVEN POINT IN THE HISTORY OF PLANET EARTH.  So...What purpose does it serve again if, as we know, albeit limited in quantity, they are unlimited in design types, whats to stop bitcoin from becoming 1/10,000 coins valued at .002 per coin? (or less when this pump-n-dump is over)

In reply to by Blano

shamus001 Citxmech Sun, 12/17/2017 - 23:22 Permalink

You do realize that CME futures market for gold and silver is a derivitave, and NOT ACTUAL Gold & Silver? With CME paying cash premiums and having the option NOT TO DELIVER should they desire?  No "actual metal" is "actually" being traded, moved or sold in the Comex.... yet, the futures tail wags the dog.  Welcome to the world of Comex Control!  You may now bend over and watch your asset get shorted until it no longer threatens the beast system.

In reply to by Citxmech

ReturnOfDaMac shamus001 Sun, 12/17/2017 - 23:41 Permalink

That is not quite true.  The poor idiots in the metals market actually sell their metal at CME futures prices, poor dickheads.  There is no one who will sell BTC at CME prices.  But the settle in dollas, so yo get what you get and what you get is what they say.  Has mostly nothing to do with BTC. Its just like horse racing or any other gamble.

In reply to by shamus001