The Treasury Yield Curve Is Crashing Most Since Brexit

Remember the post-tax-reform, pre-Christmas spike in yields and the yield curve? Yeah, that's all over now!!!!

Treasury yields are down 4 days in a row with a major collapse occurring today as the long-end plunges over 8bps - the most in 3 months. The 2s30s yield curve is down over 8bps - the biggest-single-day flattening since Brexit (June 2016)...

This is the biggest 4-day drop in 30Y yields since February.

Notably 10Y yields dropped back below 2.4% (YTD unch)...

The yield curve is crashing...

The biggest 1 day flattenig since Brexit...

 

All of which is fascinating given that net spec positioning is near record long the long-end...

Comments

JackMeOff Wed, 12/27/2017 - 14:39 Permalink

Dude, the Copper shutdown for a week is a clue to a slowing geo-global economy.  The shit tax gift from DC won't change it anytime soon and austerity is circling the globe as we head to the cliff.

BritBob Wed, 12/27/2017 - 14:56 Permalink

There is a trade imbalance in favour of the European Union so it is in the interest of the EU to make amicable arrangements with the United Kingdom. What's more, the UK can do its own trade deals on a one-to-one basis instead of having the EU to deal 27 member states before it makes a trade deal.  

buzzsaw99 Wed, 12/27/2017 - 15:25 Permalink

it looks like the specs timed it right for a change.  of course being on the long side gives one something of an edge over an extended time period imo.rhinoceros?  imposseros!  [/cowardly lion]

FreeNewEnergy Wed, 12/27/2017 - 15:35 Permalink

OK, I've been fading this recent doldrums in stocks for a week now, but I think there's more to it than meets the eye, kind of the "calm before the storm."Get ready for some financial institution to just blow up, like Bear, or Lehman, back in 08. It's long overdue and obviously, the money handlers are scambling. Lots of money heading into PMs and bonds, but only one of those is really a safe haven (you know which one).This has all the makings of a GFC 2.0, featuring Bitcoin crash and DeutscheBank calamity. Throw in a nice dose of deep state swamp drainage and there's a ton of mney being flushed, slushed, and hushed.Repatriation of all that offshore cash is supposed to be a good thing, a spur to the economy, a cause for the long-overdue inflation, but that money is going to be wasted, just like all the other malinvestments Wall Street has made over the past nine years.Washington and Wall Street has made their bed and now they get to sleep in it. My only regret is that it will be blamed on one Donald J. Trump, whose only crime is trying to do the right thing for the American people.The yield curve is going to invert (it's already at historic flatness), and somebody won't be able to cover margin of funding requirements.Seriously, the Dow hasn't made a new all-0time high in over a week. Something is certainly amiss. (/sarc)

buzzsaw99 Wed, 12/27/2017 - 15:55 Permalink

i wouldn't get married to that thesis if i were you. ...I hope it's a long ceremony, 'cause it's gonne be a short honeymoon.  [/dark helmet]

buzzsaw99 FreeNewEnergy Wed, 12/27/2017 - 18:36 Permalink

yep, we are getting close to the end of the year.i do those predictions for the new year  things for fun but my batting average isn't that great over just 12-18 months.  most people bat about .500 on those things including me.  my 5 - 10 year predictions on the other hand are rarely wrong.  i haven't had a losing year that i can remember but to be honest if i had just put it all in stocks and left it all in stocks i would probably be better off right now. all i'm saying is that being short anything is the road to ruin unless your timing is perfect and you are nimble as fuck.that said, and just for the fun of it, here you go, my short list for 2018:gold - down ~ $1100 eoy targettreasury bond rates - down but i say that every year almostshort term rates - upstocks - bouncy (okay, that was chickenshit)stocks - down in the first half flat, bouncy in the back half, down 5% overallusd - up against all major currencies

In reply to by FreeNewEnergy