The Greatest Bubble Ever: Why You Better Believe It - Part 2

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

Read Part 1 here...

During the 40 months after Alan Greenspan's infamous "irrational exuberance" speech in December 1996, the NASDAQ 100 index rose from 830 to 4585 or by 450%. But the perma-bulls said not to worry: This time is different----it's a new age of technology miracles that will change the laws of finance.

It wasn't. The market cracked in April 2000 and did not stop plunging until the NASDAQ 100 index hit 815 in early October 2002. During those a heart-stopping 30 months of free-fall, all the gains of the tech boom were wiped out in an 84% collapse of the index. Overall, the market value of household equities sank from $10.0 trillion to $4.8 trillion----a wipeout from which millions of baby boom households have never recovered.

Likewise, the second Greenspan housing and credit boom generated a similar round trip of bubble inflation and collapse. During the 57 months after the October 2002 bottom, the Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed the proverbial wall-of-worry----rising from 340 to 850 or by 2.5X.

And this time was also held to be different because, purportedly, the art of central banking had been perfected in what Bernanke was pleased to call the "Great Moderation". Taking the cue, Wall Street dubbed it the Goldilocks Economy----meaning a macroeconomic environment so stable, productive and balanced that it would never again be vulnerable to a recessionary contraction and the resulting plunge in corporate profits and stock prices.

Wrong again!

During the 20 months from the July 2007 peak to the March 2009 bottom, the RUT gave it all back. And we mean every bit of it----as the index bottomed 60% lower at 340. This time the value of household equities plunged by $6 trillion, and still millions more baby-boomers were carried out of the casino on their shields never to return.

Now has come the greatest central bank fueled bubble ever. During nine years of radical monetary experimentation under ZIRP and QE, the value of equities owned by US households exploded still higher----this time by $12.5 trillion. Yet this eruption, like the prior two, was not a reflection of main street growth and prosperity, but Wall Street speculation fostered by massive central bank liquidity and price-keeping operations.

Nevertheless, this time is, actually, very different. This time the central banks are out of dry powder and belatedly recognize that they have stranded themselves on or near the zero bound where they are saddled with massively bloated balance sheets.

So an epochal pivot has begun----led by the Fed's committment to shrink its balance sheet at a $600 billion annual rate beginning next October. This pivot to QT (quantitative tightening) is something new under the sun and was necessitated by the radical money printing spree of the past three decades.

What this momentous pivot really means, of course, is ill understood in the day-trading and robo-machine driven casinos at today's nosebleed valuations. Yet what is coming down the pike is nothing less than a drastic, permanent downward reset of financial asset prices that will rattle the rafters in the casino.

This time is also very different because there will be no instant financial market reflation by the central banks. And that means, in turn, that there will be no fourth great bubble, either. Here's why.

PART 2

As we explained in Part 1, the most dangerous place on the planet financially is now the Wall Street casino. In the months ahead, it will become ground zero of the greatest monetary/fiscal collision in recorded history.

For the first time ever both the Fed and the US treasury will be dumping massive amounts of public debt on the bond market---upwards of $1.8 trillion between them in FY 2019 alone---and at a time which is exceedingly late in the business cycle. That double whammy of government debt supply will generate a thundering "yield shock" which, in turn, will pull the props out from under equity and other risk asset markets----all of which have "priced-in" ultra low debt costs as far as the eye can see.

The anomalous and implicitly lethal character of this prospective clash can not be stressed enough. Ordinarily, soaring fiscal deficits occur early in the cycle. That is, during the plunge unto recession, when revenue collections drop and outlays for unemployment benefits and other welfare benefits spike; and also during the first 15-30 months of recovery, when Keynesian economists and spendthrift politicians join hands to goose the recovery----not understanding that capitalist markets have their own regenerative powers once the excesses of bad credit, malinvestment and over-investment in inventory and labor which triggered the recession have been purged.

By contrast, the Federal deficit is now soaring at the tail end (month #102) of an aging business expansion. And the cause is not the exogenous effects of so-called automatic fiscal stabilizers associated with a macroeconomic downturn, but deliberate Washington policy decisions made by the Trumpian GOP.

During FY 2019, for example, these discretionary plunges into deficit finance include slashing revenue by $280 billion, while pumping up an already bloated baseline spending level of $4.375 trillion by another $200 billion for defense, disasters, border control, ObamaCare bailouts and domestic pork barrel of every shape and form.

These 11th hour fiscal maneuvers, in fact, are so asinine that the numbers have to be literally seen to be believed. To wit, an already weak-growth crippled revenue baseline will be cut to just $3.4 trillion, while the GOP spenders goose outlays toward the $4.6 trillion mark.

That's right. Nine years into a business cycle expansion, the King of Debt and his unhinged GOP majority on Capitol Hill have already decided upon (an nearly implemented) the fiscal measures that will result in borrowing 26 cents on every dollar of FY 2019 spending. JM Keynes himself would be grinning with self-satisfaction.

Moreover, this foolhardy attempt to re-prime-the-pump nearly a decade after the Great Recession officially ended means that monetary policy is on its back foot like never before.

What we mean is that both Bernanke and Yellen were scared to death of the tidal waves of speculation that their money printing policies of QE and ZIRP had fostered in the financial markets. So once the heat of crisis had clearly passed and the market had recovered its pre-crisis highs in early 2013, they nevertheless deferred, dithered and procrastinated endlessly on normalization of interest rates and the Fed's elephantine balance sheet.

So what we have now is a central bank desperately trying to recapture lost time via its "automatic pilot" commitment to systematic and sustained balance sheet shrinkage at fixed monthly dollar amounts. This unprecedented "quantitative tightening" or QT campaign has already commenced at $1o billion of bond sales per month (euphemistically described as "portfolio run-off" by the Eccles Building) during the current quarter and will escalate automatically until it reaches $50 billion per month ($600 billion annualized) next October .

Needless to say, that's the very opposite of the "accommodative" Fed posture and substantial debt monetization which ordinarily accompanies an early-cycle ballooning of Uncle Sam's borrowing requirements. And the present motivation of our Keynesian monetary central planners is even more at variance with the normal cycle.

To wit, they plan to stick with QT come hell or high water because they are in the monetary equivalent of a musket reloading mode. Failing to understand that the main street economy essentially recovered on its own after the 2008-2009 purge of the Greenspanian excesses (and that's its capacity to rebound remains undiminished), the Fed is desperate to clear balance sheet headroom and regain interest rate cutting leverage so that it will have the wherewithal to "stimulate" the US economy out of the next recession.

Needless to say, this kind of paint-by-the-numbers Keynesianism is walking the whole system right into a perfect storm. When the GOP-Trumpian borrowing bomb hits the bond market next October we will  already be in month #111 of the current expansion cycle and as the borrowing after-burners kick-in during the course of the year, FY 2019 will close out in month #123.

Here's the thing. The US economy has never been there before. Never in the recorded history of the republic has a business expansion lasted 123 months. During the post-1950 period shown below, the average expansion has been only 61 months and the two longest ones have their own disabilities.

The 105 month expansion during the 1960s was fueled by LBJ's misbegotten "guns and butter" policies and ended in the dismal stagflation of the 1970s. And the 119 month expansion of the 1990s reflected the Greenspan fostered household borrowing binge and tech bubbles that fed straight into the crises of 2008-2009.

Yet the Trumpian-GOP has not only presumed to pump-up the fiscal deficit to 6.2% of GDP just as the US economy enters the terra incognito range of the business cycle (FY 2019); it has actually declared its virtual abolition. Ironically, in fact, on December 31, 2025 nearly all of the individual income cuts expire----meaning that in FY 2026 huge tax increases  will smack the household sector at a $200 billion run-rate!

But not to worry. The GOP's present-day fiscal geniuses insist that the current business expansion, which will then be 207 months old, will end up no worse for the wear. The public debt will then total $33 trillion or 130% of GDP---even as the US economy gets monkey-hammered by huge tax increase.

Alas, no harm, no foul. The business expansion is presumed to crank forward through FY 2027 or month #219.

Needless to say, the whole thing degenerates into a sheer fiscal and economic fairy-tale when you examine the data and projections. But that hasn't deterred the GOP's fiscal dreamers.

Not only have they implicitly embraced an out-of-this-word 219 month business cycle expansion, but they have also insisted it will unfold at an average nominal GDP growth rate that has not been remotely evident at any time during the 21st century.

As shown in the chart below, the 10-year CBO forecast of nominal GDP (yellow line) is already quite optimistic relative to where GDP would print under the actual growth rate of the last ten-years (blue line). In fact, the CBO forecast generates $16 trillion of extra GDP and nearly $3 trillion more Federal revenue than would a replay of the last 10-years---and notwithstanding the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus during that period.

Still, the GOP/Trump forecast (grey line) assumes a full percentage point of higher GDP growth on top of CBO and no intervening recession and resulting GDP relapse.

Accordingly, the GOP assumes $30 trillion of extra GDP over the coming decade or nearly 23% more than would be generated by the actual growth rate (blue line) of the last decade; and consequently, $6 trillion of extra revenue.

That's right. An already geriatric business cycle is going t0 rear-up on its hind legs and take off into a new phase of growth in the face of an epochal pivot of monetary policy to QT and a public debt burden relative to GDP that is approaching a Greek-style end game.

(Note: Figures in the box are inverted. First line should be 2006-2012 redux and third line should be Trump forecast.)

Stated differently, fiscal policy has descended into the hands of political mad-men at the very time that monetary policy is inexorably slouching toward normalization. Under those circumstances there is simply no way of avoiding the "yield shock" postulated above, and the cascading "reset" of financial asset prices that it will trigger across the length and breadth of the financial system.

As usual, however, the homegamers are the last to get the word. The unaccountable final spasm of the stock market in 2017 will undoubtedly come to be seen as the last call of the sheep to the slaughter. And owing to the speculative mania that has been fostered by the Fed and its fellow-traveling central banks, it now appears that the homegamers are all-in for the third time since 1987.

Indeed, Schwab's retail clients have never, ever had lower cash allocations than at the present time---not even during the run-up to the dotcom bust or the great financial crisis.

But this time these predominately baby-boom investors are out of time and on the cusp of retirement---if not already living on one of the Donald's golf resorts. When the crash comes they will have no opportunity to recover----nor will Washington have the wherewithal to stimulate another phony  facsimile of the same.

The GOP-Trumpian gang has already blown their wad on fiscal policy and the Fed is stranded high and dry still close the zero-bound and still saddled with an elephantine balance sheet.

That is, what is fundamentally different about the greatest financial bubble yet is that there is no possibility of a quick policy-induced reflation after the coming crash. This time the cycle will be L-shaped----- with financial asset prices languishing on the post-crash bottom for years to come.

And that is a truly combustible condition. That is, 65% of the retirement population already lives essentially hand-to-month on social security, Medicare and other government welfare benefits (food stamps and SSI, principally). But after the third financial bubble of this century crashes, tens of millions more will be driven close to that condition as their 401Ks again evaporate.

That's why the fiscal game being played by the Donald and his GOP confederates is so profoundly destructive. Now is the last time to address the entitlement monster, but they have decided to throw fiscal caution to the winds and borrow upwards of $1.6 trillion (with interest) to enable US corporations to fund a new round of stock buybacks, dividend increases and feckless, unproductive M&A deals.

 

Then again, what the GOP has not forgotten is the care and feeding of its donor class. That mission is being accomplished handsomely as it fills up the deep end of the Swamp with pointless, massive defense spending increases and satisfies K-Street with a grotesquely irresponsible tax bill that was surely of the lobbies, by the PACs and for the money.

At the end of the day, however, the laws of free markets and sound finance will out. The coming crash of the greatest bubble ever will prove that in spades.

 

Comments

ZeroPorridge cossack55 Jan 1, 2018 5:06 AM Permalink

I agree, this western society is a bluff, a criminal enterprise destroying the planet and the poor. Let this fucking awful financial casino come down and the ego of millions of arrogant work-averse wanna-be-rich parasites burned to ashes. Especially these fluoride dumbed down fat cows of americans: keep globbing dow your slimy macs and toilet-cleanig colas.. you are almost home to roost!! I will laugh from permaculture garden, own water and plenty of pms and true friends!!

In reply to by cossack55

prefan4200 uhland62 Dec 31, 2017 9:17 AM Permalink

Stockman rants on about how bloated the central banks' balance sheets are.  I know of no reason why the CBs' balance sheets can't become much more bloated than they are right now.  Unfortunately, this shit show can go on for a long time, especially so when it's a united central bank strategy, ie. all central banks are printing money and bloating each of their respective balance sheets.  We may all be dead by the time the balance sheets are so large that some exogenous event triggers a calamity.  And of course, I could be completely wrong and it all goes to shit later today.

In reply to by uhland62

D.r. Funk Lord Raglan Dec 30, 2017 6:43 PM Permalink

Wrong. So wrong. They had an administration with longterm globalist agendas in place, IN WHICH, a stable and of course manufactured stability in financial markets, would accomodate plans and geopolitical. Are you that unnuanced? Are you that blockheaded that bigger things aren't in play, or "oh" "they didn't do it at another point in the timeline 8 years ago so it must be bs"

In reply to by Lord Raglan

LeftandRightareWrong Dec 30, 2017 4:32 PM Permalink

An article like this has been printed every month since 2009.  The new normal is ZIRP.  Assets prices have much higher to go unless ZIRP is reversed.  The panic UP has not even started yet.  The Black Swan is the pension system (mostly public).

chubbar Son of Captain Nemo Dec 30, 2017 5:01 PM Permalink

Gold can be smelted and refined so the real question is what would be the final tally of gold if that were done? It's likely that Clinton was doing some horse trading with our gold back in the 90's and that it is mostly gone. The Treasury was discovered to have taken delivery of 1.5million ounces of pure tungsten back in that time frame. Then, low and behold, good delivery bars showed up in Hong Kong that were gold coated tungsten. After that, China and Russia got serious about acquiring gold. China sent their acquisitions from London on to Switzerland where they were smelted into kilo bars and then sent on to China. These refineries have been going 24/7/365 for the last 10 years, do that math on how much gold they have sucked out of the west. This was likely a deal between the US and China/Russia that allowed the US to continue along it's path of self destruction instead of being financially blown up as soon as the discovery of fake gold coming from the US gov't was made. It appears that gold has been the backbone of foreign trade for quite sometime, but hidden from view from most everyone including most nations. They've put off the day of reckoning for quite some time but it appears that the end is fast approaching.

In reply to by Son of Captain Nemo

resistedliving Dec 30, 2017 4:38 PM Permalink

how long does it take to say "we're fucked"?

exactly when who knows but what else is new under the sun

Happy New Year ZH'ers

FUNDRAISER NOTICE!!!  Donate .000001 BCU to ZH for better web-site.  

"On a long enough WAIT the survival rate for ZH'ers drops to zero."

two hoots Dec 30, 2017 4:41 PM Permalink

David knows in statistics and experience what many of us know instinctively.  What none of us know is when?   

What is not mentioned is a black swan event or any accelerant that could and likely will push us over the edge.   I suspect that would be a desired result as it would shift the blame from those that brought us to the precipice. 

He does stress it will mostly affect the working class and below, what better way to subjugate a people than making them all poor and dependent upon their controllers?

 

Endgame Napoleon Dec 30, 2017 5:32 PM Permalink

The MSM do not invite Stockman on their shows because he is too honest and above their pay grade in terms of real expertise.

This is an eerily convincing mini history of all the bubbles I have seen unfold on the sidelines, without any money to invest anyway and not really understanding any of them. In various jobs and in my business, I did notice patterns in upscale and down-scale customers’ spending, though. 

I see what he is saying about the majority of retired people, living on the edge. They do not get much in food stamps, however. I know that from working at the Department of Human Services during the Bush years.

The elderly got only $10, whereas the average single mom and immigrant got $450, just in free food. Some of the elderly who did not work, and thus are not vested in SSA for whatever reason, have much smaller checks through SSI, not even enough to cover rent, and the other assistance they get in other programs is not very high, either. The average SSA retirement check for a vested citizen who worked is only about $1,300, i.e. around what a full-time minimum-wage job brings in.

Whereas the young parents working part time, or with traceable income below the earned-income limit for welfare, get their main household bills paid through a multitude of federal / state programs and child tax credits, which are now up to $6,444.

Is the Trump tax-welfare plan doubling that maximum refundable child tax credit at $6,444, making it more than half of a year’s wages for people with earned-only income in states with per capita income between $18 and $20k at $12,888? 

It is unclear, probably intentionally unclear. 

It is not just the elderly who live on government checks; young parents live on non-contributory welfare. 

I could not believe the elderly were willing to wait 4 hours in that waiting room to get $10 in EBT, but some told me it bought a ham that lasted a month. From a town-hall presidential debate, I know the amount has not increased much. It is somewhere in the teens for the elderly.

The thing that compounds this whole problem of elderly people with insufficient income is that so many underemployed young and middle-aged citizens — working-age citizens — are not bumping up the tax base, as noted in one of DS’s earlier articles. Tax receipts are down because of the churnmobile of part-time, high turnover, 1099 gig and temp jobs that the Fake Bureau of Labor Statistics  (FBLS) calls “jobs.” 

Now the Swamp is giving a massive tax break. Corporations are just point blank admitting they will spend it on stock buybacks. Given the rickety condition of the stock casino, I do not even see why that is wise. Maybe, they will bump their companies’ stock numbers up that way and get out. 

It is like the people at the top are just trying to hold onto whatever they can, irresponsibly letting everything else fall, because they know the sandcastle they built is about to meet the tsunami.

Trump should have listened to people like Stockman. 

Of course, I do not know what DS means about doing something “now” about the SS and Medicare that people have paid either 7.65 to 15.3% of every dime of their often meager income for decades.

What the Swamp will likely do is stick it to the Xers and Millennials, thinking we won’t notice. We will cast votes based on culture-war issues, not economic issues, they think. 

What about taxing the $175k salaries of the DC Swamp above $127,200 and at a higher rate than at 7.65%. I guess that would not bring in enough revenue. 

 

An Shrubbery Dec 30, 2017 6:17 PM Permalink

Look at my charts & graphs & be amazed!

 It's not remotely possible to lower taxes AND increase revenue! (DOOM, GLOOM)

It's a zero-sum game! Just look at how debt has matched GDP over the last 50 yrs! (sarc_off)

An Shrubbery Dec 30, 2017 6:32 PM Permalink

This article was obviously written by a very erudite & verbose 6 yr old. First she claims that Bernanke and Yellen are both idiots, and have no clue what they are doing, then she claims that Trump has already crashed the economy, despite the brilliance of Bernanke & Yellen. Pick a side, you psychotic beeyatch!

new game Dec 30, 2017 6:42 PM Permalink

to wit, we are entering the age of borrowing on steroids at a time when russia/china/iran are positioning themselves to trade around the petrodolla regime (bis). and coming due expirey treas and QT. now, to rewit i ask; who the fuk is going to buy all this treas debt? i mean trillions upon trillions. i think the dolla sinks into the western demise like the sun setting into a dark fortnight of long expirey.

Let it Go Dec 30, 2017 6:50 PM Permalink

During the last two and a half years central banks and countries around the world have added more fuel to the fire which has postponed the day of reckoning. This has made all of us thinking the market was about to turn south looking rather silly and underlines the fact that trying to time events is both confusing and complex, this is especially true when it comes to the financial part of our lives.

When it comes to economics, this means it is best not to have a great deal of faith in our economic system which is severely flawed. Central banks can stack the deck but when it gets too high and begins to fall they may not be able to control the direction or who it will crush. The article below explores the idea that thinking the economy will adjust and grow its way out of many problems we have tried so hard to ignore deifies what history has taught us.

 http://Hard-landing Scenario Remains Very Possible.html

There Dec 30, 2017 7:05 PM Permalink

Remember, these guys do not know what they are doing. They just tell lies to everyone else about how the economy is going to work and so they can take care of only themselves.