Dow Tops 25k As Gold Surges To All-Time Record Win Streak

"Life's a bit of shit, when you look at it..."

 

The Dow reached 25,000 for the first time today.

 

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The move from 24,000 on 11/1 was the fastest (in terms of calendar days) ever for a 1000-point move...

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Source: WSJ

But adjusted for the percentage difference that 1000-point gain is at 24k vs 10k etc, this latest move is the 4th fastest gain ever with the 1999 surge from 10k to 11k (at 0.4% per day) as the most aggressive buying ever...

 

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Source: WSJ

Perhaps even more shocking is the fact that the in less than a year, The Dow went from 20k to 25k with only 5 stocks responsible for half of those 5000 points.

  • Boeing +898pts
  • UnitedHealth +429pts
  • Caterpillar +407pts
  • 3M +406pts
  • Home Depot +355pts

Nasdaq remains 2018's biggest winner with Small Caps and The Dow lagging with only a 1.3% gain in 3 days...

 

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Notably, VIX traded with an 8 handle for the 2nd day in a row - this has never, ever in the history of stocks...

 

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Retailers underperformed (hit hard early then ripped back) as Financials were the winners and Utes the losers...

 

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The S&P 1500 Department Stores Index was having its worst day since Oct. 27 before the dip-buyers rescued them too...

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Macy’s and J.C. Penney, both of which reported positive holiday sales this morning, have erased earlier gains: M is now down as 7.5%, JCP off as much as 8.7%

L Brands and Buckle sink after reporting Dec. comp. sales that missed estimates, dragging down all but one component (Zumiez) of the S&P 1500 Apparel Retail Index (which was down as much as 3%, its worst day since Nov. 14, before the afternoon dip-buyers stepped in)

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HY Bonds ripped back above their 200-day moving average - highest in 2 months...

 

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While stocks just can't be stopped, nor can the Treasury yield curve... to the downside...

 

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2s10s traded with a 49bps handle for the first time this cycle...

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And 2s30s tumbled to new cycle lows...

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Yesterday's brief bounce in the dollar is over...

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Commodities are up for the 14th day in a row - a record win streak...

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WTI/RBOB closed higher, bouncing back from early losses...

 

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One more record for the day was in precious metals as gold futures rallied for the 10th straight day - equaling the record win streak of all-time from 7/18/2011 and 9/9/1994... (Gold is up 14 of the 15 days since The Fed hiked rates)

 

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Will it make 11 tomorrow? It's payrolls day - which has typically had a negative tone for gold.

 

Crypto was crazy again with Ripple grabbing all the headlines...and then crashing...

 

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Bitcoin and Gold have recoupled on a normalized basis...

 

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While all the chatter today was about The Dow, we note that gold is outperforming that index in 2018...

 

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Finally, today's epic cold sent NYC post NatGas prices to an unprecedented high...

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Comments

MK ULTRA Alpha Moe Howard Thu, 01/04/2018 - 18:07 Permalink

Silver is dirt cheap. The move up in silver and gold is because of the weakness in the dollar. Neither silver or gold is reacting like in the past to geopolitical risk and inflation expectation risk. However it is the most important negative correlation to the equity markets available for the protection of one's assets. Everyone should diversify risk by owning silver and gold.

 

In reply to by Moe Howard

Traderone Thu, 01/04/2018 - 16:08 Permalink

Great, so the phyZZ I bought 7 long fucking years ago is finally starting to pull its weight? super. Even if it quadruples in value it will still lag behind the Stock Market by a country mile.

D.r. Funk Non-Corporate Entity Thu, 01/04/2018 - 16:38 Permalink

They're

Not

Getting

26 k

 

Not gonna get it. Not gonna happen.

The perception and belief is. Presented and produced.

That the thousand-dow markers will continue. And just continue.

 

I - CANT - WAIT - TILL - THEY - GET - STOPPED - BEFORE - 26 - K - GETS - NOTCHED

YOURE NOT GONNA GET IT. FUCKERS. YOU CANT GET IT

 

I'm not gonna have to see 26Dow

In reply to by Non-Corporate Entity

Peak Finance Thu, 01/04/2018 - 16:09 Permalink

What a week!

Massacred in Natty today, didn't realize the storm passing would be a "sell the news" event LOL. Still up 13% on that trade, may close at open Fri

Overall though, still up big on other trades, like oil. 

Caught the MJX bounce perfectly, buying back into other Pot stocks since it's down 30% across the board. 

 

Keltner Channel Surf Traderone Thu, 01/04/2018 - 17:28 Permalink

Welcome back from the holiday, lots of good 'footie', but like an idiot I keep forgetting to watch them, have never seen fewer matches in a 'festive period' before, but have been reading and listening to even more music (if that's possible), thanks to the most hated company here (AMZN) due to free Kindle books from the Ohio Digital library consortium, as well as my new Echo w/Music Unlimited, perfect for traders, listen to virtually any music you want for only 3.99/month (today it was a huge Orange Juice compilation, a post-punk early 80s band from Scotland, "Coals to Newcastle")

In reply to by Traderone

Traderone Keltner Channel Surf Thu, 01/04/2018 - 17:43 Permalink

Happy New Year to you. The Chelsea Arsenal game yesterday was a cracker as was Liverpool Leicester a few days back but other than that I think the general quality of the games over the Christmas period was in short supply.  Man 'Citeh' have it wrapped up already as have Barca in Spain so damp squibs all round. Never heard of OJ but might check them out.

In reply to by Keltner Channel Surf

Keltner Channel Surf Traderone Thu, 01/04/2018 - 17:51 Permalink

Good man.  OJ can be an acquired taste for many, with VERY mannered vocals (think Bryan Ferry on quaaludes), but once adjusted to, their early records stand out against most 80s crap.  A post-punk version of funk, but not as aggressively 'funk-punk' as A Certain Ratio (a Rough Trade band that sounded like a cross between Joy Division and Parliament/Funkadelic).

In reply to by Traderone

Keltner Channel Surf Squid Viscous Thu, 01/04/2018 - 16:50 Permalink

Squid my friend, PF doesn't come here w/ only good trades, but simply reports what he's done, both successful and losers, all with good humor and perspective and, given he does an eclectic blend of stuff, is always interesting to hear from.

Plus, if all traders leave here (most have), then the IQ level will drop even more than it already has, and that would be tragic  :)

Trust me, you'll want to keep at least one or two of us around, in case you want a neutral, non-emotional answer to an important financial question.  Just sayin' ...

In reply to by Squid Viscous

Peak Finance Keltner Channel Surf Thu, 01/04/2018 - 17:07 Permalink

You need to look for weird stuff and stuff on the fringes for good entries and for bigger potentials. 

There were a lot of big markets that had only a few players and there was good profit potential.

Now, it just "feels" like the overall market is much, much smaller. 

I also gave up on a lot of markets I use to play in, since I don't feel like I am getting a fair share anymore, like many options for instance. 

I will always like resources since that market just seems to make sense to me. I like the MJ market now and crypto-stuff too. 

People overreacted to Sessions today and the whole sector is down like 30% ish. Good BTFD I think here. 

I am also trading resource ETN, since they follow underling closely and if the trades go bad, but I still like the overall trends, I "stay in" and just take the dividend money. 

In reply to by Keltner Channel Surf

Keltner Channel Surf Peak Finance Thu, 01/04/2018 - 17:20 Permalink

Sounds like your approach is similar to Blue's, eclecticism, but with longer holds (his are often a few milliseconds :) )

Everyone's different, I prefer only 1 (or possibly 2) things at a time, studied intensely so I can interpret every little waggle, get to know the trading 'community' (i.e., blend of algorithms).  I do purely volatility-envelope based intraday mean reversion in multiple timeframes with medium-term triggers, never do holds past 4 (and rarely put on new trades past 12:30).

Which is precisely why I love to hear from you, T1 and others with disparate approaches.    Best of luck.

 

In reply to by Peak Finance