Pepe Escobar: Why There Won't Be A Revolution In Iran

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani did the right thing going on television and at least acknowledging popular anger over hard economic times.


Inflation is high at 12% but down from 40% at the start of Rouhani’s first term. And the recent increase in fuel and food prices by up to 40% has hardly helped.

That was part of Team Rouhani’s 2018 budget, which cuts subsidies for the poor – a key feature of the previous Ahmadinejad administration.

Then there is youth unemployment, which hovers around the 30% mark. Similar figures recently came out of Spain, a member of the European Union. Of course, that explains why the bulk of the protesters are under 25 from working class backgrounds.

What Rouhani should have explained to Iranians in detail is the direct consequences of hard economic times and United States sanctions, which are affecting the country.

These were coupled with financial threats against western firms now back in business, or at least contemplating opening up operations, in Iran.

Rouhani did promise after signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, in the Austrian capital of Vienna in 2015 that it would lead to more jobs and stimulate the economy.

While that has not been the case, legitimate protests singling out economic problems have never gone away. In fact, they have been part of the Iranian picture for decades.

If we consider the Islamic Republic experiment, a sort of “theocracy with democratic characteristics,” the most striking element is how deeply rooted it is in the country.

I learned this during my many trips to Iran and it has a great deal to do with the basij, or voluntary militias. They have permeated all aspects of social life from unions to student bodies and civil servant groups.

In this respect, there is a strong similarity to China, where the Communist Party is embedded in the very fabric of society.

Talking to young people in places such as Kashan or Mashhad showed me how solid the popular base was behind the Islamic Republic experiment. It was certainly more thought-provoking than listening to ayatollahs in Qom.

Still, what is happening now in Iran is that legitimate protests related to economic hardships have been hijacked by the usual suspects in a move to influence the minority. After all, Rouhani’s administration is comparatively liberal compared to the populist Ahmadinejad government.

So, what we have is a concerted attempt to turn legitimate protests into a “revolutionary” movement with the aim of bringing about a regime change. In all practical purposes, this would be civil war.

Well, it will simply not work. Anyone familiar with Iran knows the country’s civil society is far too sophisticated to fall into such a crude and obvious trap.

For a clear take on the foreign influence angle, you should watch Professor Mohammad Marandi, of the University of Tehran, an academic of absolute integrity, arguing with a former BBC employee on the Qatari-owned Al Jazeera television network.

Indeed, what is certain is that foreign elements are acting as provocateurs to influence the protests. This “whole world is watching” tone is meant to intimidate Tehran’s response.

Yet there has to be a crackdown against the violence as Rouhani strongly hinted. Imagine the police response if the level of violence seen on Iranian streets was happening in France or Germany?

Regime change is unlikely but what is in play is setting the scene for a further renewal of economic sanctions against Iran. Possibly, in this case by the EU. Hopefully, it will not fall into this trap.

Anyway, Tehran is already gearing up to increase business across Eurasia through China’s new Silk Roads, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Eurasia Economic Union.

In the end, it is up to Team Rouhani to be creative in alleviating the burden on the economic front.


NiggaPleeze Moe-Monay Fri, 01/05/2018 - 02:45 Permalink

This “whole world is watching” tone is meant to intimidate Tehran’s response.

Sure, they used the same trick in Ukraine.  If the Poroshenko regime were to crack down on illegal protests and occupations, Ukraine and Poroshenko personally would be punished.

Of course when the vassals of the ((Empire)) crack down much harder on much more peaceful protests, nothing is said.

It's obviously just a case of expansion of the ((Empire)) under the "might makes right" theory.  Nobody cares about Iranians being "free", they want Iranians to be their vassals.  Wars of conquest, 3rd Millenium edition.

In reply to by Moe-Monay

Planet ZOG Non-Corporate Entity Fri, 01/05/2018 - 02:35 Permalink

If they aren't fans of Israel, then why are they weakening Iran at the precise moment that Israel and her puppets are desperately trying to get a war started against their homeland? 

I think that this is evidence of some kind of mind control going on.  That and likely weather manipulation to cause smaller harvests and inflation.  This would be the reason that oil pipeline was blown up, to cause shortages and inflation.

In reply to by Non-Corporate Entity

popeye Non-Corporate Entity Fri, 01/05/2018 - 15:58 Permalink

Any journalist who claims to not have bias is either self-deluded or a liar. We all have bias.

As for your claim re millions of Iranians: proof? At the most, reliant on the MSM narrative (c/- Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya), there have been a few thousand marching nationwide. And it is beyond refute that the protests, that were initially peaceful, became riots focused on destruction of property.

The riots (none of which were of much scale) rather look like coordinated violence to attract attention and provide impressive images, with no chance or intent of eliciting a positive change to Iranian society. If their purpose was not to initiate positive change, what WAS their purpose?

In reply to by Non-Corporate Entity

Rabbitnexus Non-Corporate Entity Sat, 01/06/2018 - 05:42 Permalink

There are at best a few tens of thousands who'd support the extremist elements of the Western backed protests, sorry. Meanwhile you stupid, uninformed functionary (paid troll probably) there are counter demonstrations of support for the Islamic Revolution which comprise MILLIONS of Iranians which are ongoing.  You Zionist cretins need to wakey wakey, Iran is the bridge too far for you fake Jew has-beens. Ridiculous goat humping Khazars!  The protests against the government are over. Finito, fizzled out after a few dozen mostly IMPORTED troublemakers were rounded up (and a few got a bullet between the eyes)  maybe one of them was your brother. Suck eggs Heimy, it is over.  it will never happen in your lifetime either.

In reply to by Non-Corporate Entity

Rabbitnexus Non-Corporate Entity Sat, 01/06/2018 - 05:35 Permalink

Well my family and friends in Iran say otherwise. It is all over and the demonstrations on behalf of the government are enormous and ongoing as we speak.  You IDIOTS, the majority of the earlier protesters/rioters are HARD LINERS, extremists.  The people protesting economics backed out as soon as those Western backed goons took to the streets. 


it is OVER numbnuts, and last I heard your Netanyahoo still has some very strident and much longer standing protests going on in his own name.  The Crime Minister. Prime Rapist himself and fraudster elect.  You're blinded by that beam in your eye Heimy.

In reply to by Non-Corporate Entity

matermaker Thu, 01/04/2018 - 23:05 Permalink

The Persians are historically some of the better educated and more liberal people living in the Muslim world.  They are not like the Bedouins that were living  in tents when Lawrence was going off a hundred years ago. AND they are Shia.  Theocracy was a terrible choice after Monarchy, but its days are numbered.  Some of the very first elites in human history to get knocked off were the priestly class that ended up not being all that pious.  Your first tell is when they command armies to protect themselves. Keep them poor, starving and with a great satan enemy only lasts so long.. anywhere with any humans.

Scipio Africanuz matermaker Fri, 01/05/2018 - 12:40 Permalink

The Iranian theocracy will not last. The ayatollah probably knows that, however, transition to something else cannot be sudden, USSR anyone? They'll weather this storm and grow stronger. I challenge any government to do better than the mullahs have done, under similar circumstances. I guarantee you, you'll obtain humility.

In reply to by matermaker

Rabbitnexus matermaker Sat, 01/06/2018 - 05:54 Permalink

You are quite wrong about the Islamic Revolution.  Self evidently you lack any real understanding of Islam, it is understandable. Islam is not waning, in case you'd thought otherwise and Iran has a history of being successfully defended only as an Islamic state.  You should look more closely at the Islamic history of Iran.  I always smile when I see some Iran supporter who yet makes a qualification which pretends that the Islamic Revolution is some sort of recent hiccup or aberration and likely to recede.  Since coming to Iran, Islamic leadership has been the norm and their history shows clearly these have been the most successful and formative years. Iranians are quite aware of this. The minority of youthful troublemakers are the same in all cultures. The only Iranians I have met in my lifetime who oppose the revolution have been drug dealers, former Shah's guard rapists and torturers.( ..seriously), thieves and criminals of various other smuggling types. The non religious, the lost and the dregs.  the same people who exist in any society and will stick a knife in you for a dollar anytime.  These are the sort of people the USA and "Israel" have to rely on to do their bidding in Iran. This is why they stand no chance.  The massively larger counter demonstrations of millions of Iranians which come on the heels of these silly Western backed joke protests should be understood as backing for the Islamic Revolution. The support is enormous and will not change in your grandchildren's lifetime. To fail to recognise this aspect of Iran is to fail to know anything about the country.

In reply to by matermaker

Ima anal sphincter Thu, 01/04/2018 - 23:23 Permalink

The whole rebellion thingy was a lie created out of thin air.

As a result, "millions" (literally millions) of Iranians marched in defiance of the US and to show their support to their country and leaders.

I agree with them. Fuck you Zio Turds, Central Bankers, Sellout Media, Sellout Government, Sellout Military......

HRClinton Thu, 01/04/2018 - 23:26 Permalink

Just hire all those unemployed Iranian youth to...

* Fix the Intel CPU bug

* Create more Crypto Currencies

* Kosher Stuxnet viruses

* Create new Ad agencies, to create appealing and persuasive PR campaigns  the US.

* Etc, etc. You get the idea.

East Indian Thu, 01/04/2018 - 23:29 Permalink

Rouhani is said to be more crony-cap friendly than others; he is accused of financialising the economy and making life hard for the younger generation. Yet TPTB of the West want to replace him. 


Perhaps even he might have baulked at the idea of a blood-sucking central bank. 

Conscious Reviver East Indian Fri, 01/05/2018 - 05:00 Permalink

Hez has Israel by the throat. Like that new Intel plant in Haifa? Up in smoke if war breaks out in Lebanon. That's why the AAZ hates Iran. The Shia were able to band together and defeat the empire. Maybe some Iranian's thought they could go with financialization and that would endear them to the West, but it won't. Iran just has to wait out the PetroDollar collapse and their adversaries will be forced to slink back home. 

In reply to by East Indian

Son of Captain Nemo Thu, 01/04/2018 - 23:29 Permalink

Here Pepe...

Xcuse me while I whip this out (!

Sure hope they have Mike Andrea in custody and are beating him into the thinnest of "cutlets" to be fed to starving Iranian dogs that have gone without "food" because of U.S. sanctions!

I think it's safe to say like Maidan 2014 only worse for Langley this time around this mission didn't quite go according to plan!



BobEore Thu, 01/04/2018 - 23:36 Permalink

The writerly equivalent of the 'kitchen sink'....

our guy Pepe gets thrown into the rapidly unwinding damage control narrative... with a mission to tamp down the coals of

burnin desire on the part o foolish farsi folks... to live without fake mullab/rebbe terror hangin over their heads... carpetbagger 'revolutionary guards' guardin castles of stolen public loot like BEAGLE BOY characters from some Duckberg cartoon episode... state capitalism on steroids... and the shuffling off of any remaining public purse contents into foreign adventurism in far off Syria Lebanon and soon to come.... >>>???

What a life! What a world! Like an international jet settin |Red Adair|///

Pepito flies to more places, puttin out more fires... on behalf of the talmudic liars who start these incendiary CHANNEL SEVEN *****alarm events in the first place...

than any other guy with a poisoned pen for hire out to the moneypower! 

Iran. Fake revolution. Fake mullahs. Fake economy. A downtrodden people abandoned by folks in the west too busy jackin off to jewish porn to worry bout other peeples problems. What's not to love about it all...

for a doomed TARDANation unable to grasp the beast what cometh its way... once the rest of once free peeples have been gobbled up n golemized.

BobEore BobEore Fri, 01/05/2018 - 06:29 Permalink

he heheh..

you still don't get it huh tards? Your brokeback VOTAN the meter god is dead... and unburied... lying in the gutters of the Castle o Lies collectin

flies. Now zip yours up... and find some way of REBUTTING the truth on display... or

call it a day. We gonna BURN YUR MOFO storylines DOWN!

In reply to by BobEore

Rabbitnexus BobEore Sat, 01/06/2018 - 06:07 Permalink

Nothing fake about Iran, it's people or it's Mullahs. No need to project your own failings.  Iran was a successful Islamic nation long before the USA was a gleam in Columbus' eye. The more recent Shah's time was one of the few when it was not so.

In reply to by BobEore

francis scott … Fri, 01/05/2018 - 00:08 Permalink

The real reason there won't be a revolution in Iran is













east of eden Fri, 01/05/2018 - 00:54 Permalink

This one has Israel's fingerprints all over it, and that must be the disconcerting part for the Rhouhani admin. If Israel can create such disruption simply by buying people who have no jobs, then it is a vulnerability that has to be addressed, positively.

Davidduke2000 east of eden Fri, 01/05/2018 - 07:42 Permalink

you underestimate the friends of Iran, China had its fill with israel and probably you will be alive to China going to war to liberate Palestine, when I say was it's an economic war  by choking israel's trade since israel is the only menace to the world other than the us, but since the us would be bankrupt and in a meltdown and states are splitting away , israel would be left to fend for itself.

In reply to by east of eden

Rabbitnexus east of eden Sat, 01/06/2018 - 06:16 Permalink

Correct, and the new Silk Road and Iran's privileged position in it will suffice to tame the savage (unemployed)  youth.  There's a major turnaround coming for many Eastern economies very soon. Signs are all over some places I go. Pakistan may be getting the heave ho from Washington, but here's what they're not reporting.  The Chinese have been displacing the USA as Pakistan's most useful benefactor for a couple of years now. China is fixing the big problems (electricity and roads) and investing huge sums and attracting huge investors from Europe, who themselves (I spoke with some) are running along after the Chinese delegation like puppies hoping to gather scraps from the table. Pakistan and even India are actually going out of their way to court Iran...hmmm why might that be?... Iran is sitting right up there among the big boys in the rising replacement for the US dollar dominated one.

In reply to by east of eden

messystateofaffairs Fri, 01/05/2018 - 03:35 Permalink

My take on this is jewland is priming the pump to send mercenary weasels into Iran by pushing this shit narrative. Trying the old civil war routine. They got Donny Dumbfuck vomiting up his nonsense. Anyway Russia has made it clear they will have none of it and Iran is shutting it down early. Back to the drawing board jewland.

Davidduke2000 messystateofaffairs Fri, 01/05/2018 - 07:51 Permalink

the western idiots are trying to have a civil war in a country with security equal to germany's hitler. it is impossible to cause such civil war because Iran has the capacity to kill thousands of people without any mercy, they lost 1 million men in the war against Iraq that was started by the us.

However whenever you lose so many men the population of younger  women especially the millennials will try to take over like in modern Germany and destroy their country  but to no avail as Iran is a different creature as even these women's parents would sacrifice them themselves for disgracing the family in their rush to have unlimited partners like in the west and in israel.

to any reporter or analyst, they must study the history of Persia first, then the history of the shia religion then the history of modern Iran before even opening their pie hole. 

In reply to by messystateofaffairs

Fireman Fri, 01/05/2018 - 03:56 Permalink

It will be over before the end of February and USSA will have to come up with new jooganda to get the EuroPeons to renege on their commercial agreements with Iran. It is not going to happen and "Benny Nutnyahoo" aka Nitay will be the real loser again as in Syria.


Mr Nitay is going to jail finally.

Maestro Maestro Fri, 01/05/2018 - 04:27 Permalink

Iranians are stupid and will fail as a nation and a country for the following reasons:

1) Persians gave up their own religion and civilization and adopted those of the inferior Arab savages that conquered them.

2) Islam, like the fundamental religion of the Hews, the Talmud, is based on conflict with outsiders.  Its economic system's viability is contingent upon the subjugation and exploitation of the unbelievers.  There is no peace in war.

3) Iranians suffer from the same kind of compartimentalized thinking as the Americans.  Iranians dissociate causes from their necessary consequences.  In short, they are stupid.  Case in point: after getting their confiscated monies back from the Americans, they went ahead and paid for eighty (80) Boeing jets with it, instead of investing in their country's infrastructure or subsidizing food production and distribution which would have prevented the current civil unrest.  The Iranians will probably never see those Boeing jets.  And if they do get delivered, they will come equipped with spying bugs and self-destruct mechanisms.  They will not be able to fly anyway when open conflict with Israel and America starts.

In conclusion,

Stupid nations like the Iranians are guilty of being the very real and actual enablers of evil nations like America, Israel and Saudi Arabia.  Iranians (and the Russians, and the Chinese) subsidize and promote stupidity and contradiction.