December Jobs Miss Huge At Only 148K; Hourly Earnings In Line

Well, so much for that 200K+ whisper number for December payrolls, and it appears that Goldman's warning that winter storms in the last month of the year would depress jobs was spot on after moments ago the BLS reported that December payrolls tumbled from an upward revised 252K in November (from 228K) to only 148K, a 3-sigma miss to expectations of 190K, and the lowest print since July.

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The December payrolls number was below all but one sellside estimate:

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There was also a big slowdown in private payrolls, which rose 146k vs prior 239k; and below the est. 193k, from 29 economists surveyed.

Of course it wasn't just sellsiders who were wrong: NFP has now printed below ADP for 11 months.

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Not helping the huge December miss were the prior two-month revisions which were also negative: October was revised down from +244,000 to +211,000, while November was pushed up from +228,000 to +252,000. Net, October and November were 9,000 less than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 204,000 over the last 3 months.

Away from the establishment survey, the change in household employment was 104k vs prior 71k.

Elsewhere, the Dec. unemployment rate came in as expected, at 4.1%, same as November, the lowest in 17 years, while U6 unemployment rose a fraction to 8.1% from 8.0%.

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The labor force participation rate 62.7% vs prior 62.7%

 

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In qualitative terms, average weekly hours of 34.5 came in as expected, but what was perhaps most important is that average hourly earnings of 0.3% M/M and 2.5% Y/Y also came in precisely as expected, suggesting no major surprises to the Fed's dots timetable are imminent.

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More details from the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in December. Job gains occurred in health care, construction, and manufacturing. In 2017, payroll employment growth totaled 2.1 million, compared with a gain of 2.2 million in 2016.

Employment in health care increased by 31,000 in December. Employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+15,000) and hospitals (+12,000). Health care added 300,000 jobs in 2017, compared with a gain of 379,000 jobs in 2016.

Construction added 30,000 jobs in December, with most of the increase among specialty trade contractors (+24,000). In 2017, construction employment increased by 210,000, compared with a gain of 155,000 in 2016.

In December, manufacturing employment rose by 25,000, largely reflecting a gain in durable goods industries (+21,000). Manufacturing added 196,000 jobs in 2017, following little net change in 2016 (-16,000).

Employment in food services and drinking places changed little in December (+25,000). Over the year, the industry added 249,000 jobs, about in line with an increase of 276,000 in 2016.

In December, employment changed little in professional and business services (+19,000). In 2017, the industry added an average of 44,000 jobs per month, in line with its average monthly gain in 2016.

Employment in retail trade was about unchanged in December (-20,000). Within the industry, employment in general merchandise stores declined by 27,000 over the month. Retail trade employment edged down in 2017 (-67,000), after increasing by 203,000 in 2016.

 

Comments

Endgame Napoleon Pandelis Jan 5, 2018 10:11 AM Permalink

Thanks for the honest, non-hyped jobs report, Tyler Durden. It is a real rarity in news.

It is good when two-hundred thousand-or-so construction and manufacturing jobs are added, but this is why many Trump supporters are against mass, welfare-supported immigration. 

The 1 million new legal immigrants added to this country each year absorb much of the new job growth, in addition to many of the part time, temp, high turnover, 1099 gigs and revolving-door churn jobs in other industries.

That does not count the millions of illegal immigrants whose maximum, refundable child tax credit will rise by $1,400 per child due to the new tax cut / tax-welfare plan. 

Many of them already get free EBT food and free rent, along with EITC negative-income tax returns of up to $6,444, making it easy for them to work for beans, driving down wages for the citizens who must live on earned-only income. 

We hear about citizens training their immigrant replacements for the more complex jobs, like the IT jobs at Disney, but when do these immigrants train their American colleagues?

You learn a lot about any job on the job. Instead of recruiting fellow immigrants—often relatives in chain migration—why aren’t the high-skill immigrants we hear so much about training their American replacements?

When doing some marketing, I will never never forget talking to a woman who was struggling to keep a brick-and-mortar business afloat, thinking it would be the only source of income for she and her husband, when a new, non-citizen manager was hired at a company where her husband had worked for 15 years.

She said the new manager believed that only young people were capable of learning this new system, and he was trying to bully out the older IT employees—cast-system style and based on age and race—to implement this new system. 

Where are all the kind-hearted progressives on things like this, those ultra sensitive racial-justice warriors? When it is a minority-group member pursuing a majority-minority workplace, rooting out employees based on group charactertiscs, like skin pigmentation or age, is somehow, magically, not racism, particularly when that person is not a citizen of this country.

It is like these discriminators get added points with progressives for both being a minority and a non citizen, even though they are often the ones in charge in workplaces—the hiring managers and the trainers with the power to discriminate.

This manager was training everyone instead of recruiting people who already had honed skills. He had to train them all—foreigners and Americans, younger and older—but he was only earnestly training the people he preferred to hire due to race and age preferences. 

People have sneaky ways of doing their dirty work in offices, not just the immigrants and not just racial minorities, God knows. This manager’s underhanded means of discriminating was by assigning the hardest parts of implementing this new system to all of the people he wanted to get rid of.

He gave the older American citizens the least instruction and tight deadlines, while being extremely lenient and providing far more training to the young citizens of other countries that he preferred to hire / retain. He was mostly importing people from his country to fill the slots, as he eliminated long-term, American staff. 

Why are we paying to train the citizens of other countries, strengthening the labor force of other countries, rather than investing in US citizens? That is national suicide.

In the many jobs where you can be trained in a week, it is a little harder to use that manager’s method. These are the many mom-gang office jobs, where non-quota-meeting mommas take enormous of amounts of time off from work in back-watching cliques and have no problem bullying out the women who are “non-culture-fits.”

These are the big, nationally known corporate offices,“voted best for moms,” and the smaller offices, where they have “17 women (childbearing-age moms) in here and have to have someone who fits in.” 

Since most of the managers, too, are crony and frequently absentee parents, things like higher new business sales-generation numbers and higher account-retention numbers are as meaningless as daily, everyday attendance. Except to boost up the manager’s bonus, hard work and work productivity does nothing for you, especially where job longevity is concerned.

It is all about the crony womb-productivity club, the mom-protection-ring collusion on frequent, excused absenteeism  in excess of PTO and multiple pregnancy leaves. These moms have to be absentee every day / all day in a management job to get fired, and even then, it takes years of that behavior. 

It is all about avid participation in the mom-bonding rituals at work, like baby-mommy-look-alike-bulletin-board-decorating contests, Halloween dress-up days, work meetings where we exchange stories about kids in a circle and Family Day picnics.

It is all about moms with unearned income from spouses or from welfare and child tax credits that makes the low pay palatable, leaving work early every day, ignoring the phones ringing off the hook with paying customers. It is never (or almost never) about the customers with these openly discriminatory moms; it is all about their personal lives.

It looks like the overall, yearly jobs numbers in that category are down, but unless you are a babyvacationing mom-gang member, it is not much of a loss. 

 

In reply to by Pandelis

BigWillyStyle887 curbjob Jan 5, 2018 8:57 AM Permalink

According to Trump, this is fake news. You see, its only fake news when he cant brag about it or take credit. 

Heres the formula..........

 

"Good Jobs Report" - They have faith in me, im a great president. They know I'm gonna repeal Obamacare and muh tremendous tax reformz we all know the stock market is going 30k next week.

 

"Bad Jobs Report" - This is fake news, the media is out to get me. Its congress fault they dont want the Trump agenda. Im fighting uphill every day you should see how bad the reportz that cum to my desk are.

In reply to by curbjob

Endgame Napoleon BigWillyStyle887 Jan 5, 2018 10:35 AM Permalink

Trump should have stuck with his campaign bulldozer style of dissing the Fake Bureau of Labor Statistics (FBLS) numbers, putting pressure on those government employees to work hard and provide data that is relevant to this era of high turnover, part time, churn, 1099 gig and temporary employment at low wage levels.

He should have stayed anti-Establishment, rather than trying to use the Bureau of Labor Statistics as a PR wing, like all the Establishment presidents of the Globalist Era have done. The POTUS puts plenty of reformist pressure on other government agencies.

Tyler and David Stockman are left to put pressure on those government-employed economists and statisticians, paid to churn out now-irrelevant labor stats.

Hey Fake Bureau of Labor statisticians: The whole economy changes over time, decreasing the relevance of your measurement tools. Even a non-math person knows that.

They are just resting on their laurels and their safe government jobs. Due to civil servant status, they know they won’t have to face what is really out there in this crappy labor market.

They won’t have to rely on earned-only income, with no monthly welfare, no spousal income, no child support check to cover rent when rent takes more than half of monthly earned income and no child tax credit or max EITC @ $6,444 for parents that equals 3 to 4 months of full-time wages across the many states where per capita income falls between $18k and $20k.

Those government employees know they will not have to rely on a revolving door of low wage, market provided, non-government jobs to keep a roof over their heads. Or maybe, they know they can’t afford to be anything but the PR wing for various White Houses, rather than detached scientists, because they might have to face the real job market otherwise.

In reply to by BigWillyStyle887

moman Jan 5, 2018 8:49 AM Permalink

If they paid all the poor hapless suckers doing time for blowin a few splifs 8 bucks an hour the avg hourly wages would skyrocket.

The Real Tony Jan 5, 2018 8:55 AM Permalink

The Canadian jobs report came in exactly where I thought it would. I'll be shorting the Canadian dollar 30 seconds after the 9:30am open TOMORROW. Looking for a 66 cent Canadian dollar in 2018.

Grandad Grumps Jan 5, 2018 9:46 AM Permalink

ULtimately what people need is the basics of life and "purpose". How those things are provided is irrelevant, but just a job (or 3) won't do. People need a reason too.

Seasmoke Jan 5, 2018 9:51 AM Permalink

Can't let Gold get any higher. Even on shitty job report. It doesn't fucking matter. Time to manipulate the WORTHLESS USD higher. Just look at that chart. Blame the winter weather. What a fucking joke.