"Everything's Overbought" And There's "Too Much Optimism"

"The most hated rally" this is not...

As Bloomberg writes,  equity euphoria has gripped most of the world to kick off 2018, with the 14-day relative strength index for major stock markets surging to overbought levels.


And it doesn't look like slowing down, based on sentiment, but optimism about U.S. stocks among investment advisers is so prevalent that investors may end up disappointed this year, Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group LLC, wrote in a report Friday.

Ramsey cited figures that showed 76.7 percent of bullish or bearish newsletter writers were bulls last year on average, based on weekly surveys by Investors Intelligence.


In fact, as Bloomberg points out, in years after the sentiment gauge exceeded 70 percent, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a 0.2 percent decline since the 1960s.

Finally, BAML notes that its Global Financial Stress Index sank to its lowest level since July 2014 as volatility eased across most asset classes and geographies last week.



That’s pushed demand for protection against large moves in major equities and currencies to the lowest level since May.


BritBob Mon, 01/08/2018 - 15:43 Permalink

The Argentinians got overenthusiastic about a UN sub committees' report. Ooops!

By a ruling of the UN, Argentina will extend its maritime platform (Politica Argentina) ; New map of the maritime platform reaffirms the sovereignty of Malvinas with UN endorsement (ElCronista); Argentina enlarges its territory 35%, with a UN endorsement ...(La Capital).To add to this euphoric atmosphere the Argentine Foreign Minister stated, ''This is a historic opportunity for Argentina. We have taken a great step in the demarcation of the outer limit of our continental shelf; the most extensive boundary of Argentina and our border with humanity,'' Foreign Minister Susana Malcorra told La Nacion, which tomorrow will publicly announce the details of this resolution. (Susana Malcorra, quoted by Dinatale M, La Nacion, Argentina, 27 March 2016).


But what did they say...And what does international law say about ownership of natural resources?

Argentina's Continental Shelf Claims and The UN CLCA Commission (1 page):-




ted41776 Mon, 01/08/2018 - 15:46 Permalink

make everything awesome again! remember kids, rising asset prices are a good thing! income is always adjusted for TRUE inflation and having to spend MORE of your non-existent earnings on basic needs improves everyone's standard of living. long live the bankers who were kind enough to bless us all with a perpetual debt economic model! we'll all be billionaires soon

innertrader Mon, 01/08/2018 - 16:54 Permalink

ALL I KNOW is that I was bearish the S&P when it reached 1440 and tried selling it short 3 times and have never been long since 1440 or short since 1560!!!  Caught the down BIG time and the up BIG time to 1440 and have never been long since and missed the VERY EASY TRADE!!!

Also know that 95% of the articles on here have been bearish the S&P..... and here is another one.  SOME DAY, they will be correct, but it's been YEARS and a doubling of the S&P since they were.

Thankfully, I kept trading a commodity market that I know something about, since I've been trading it for 40 years!!!