Forget The North's Nukes, South Korea's Other Big Problem Is Inevitable

Via GEFIRA,

In the coming ten years eighty percent of the G20 countries will be facing an unprecedented population decline that will change the global economy profoundly. Economists and financial planners had better be aware of the coming demographic collapse in the so called developed world.

Successful economies are literally on a path to extinction while those doing terribly are growing like weeds. The UN population projections are far too optimistic and have little to do with reality. The extreme low fertility rates in industrialized nation contradict the UN rosy-coloured forecasts. The South Korean government’s prognosis shows that within seven years the country’s population will start to shrink and, if the trend holds, the nation will go extinct in the far future. South Korea’s demographic collapse coincides with that of China; Japan is already shrinking at an incredible paste. The world’s second, third and eleventh economies will see their working force and consuming base becoming smaller and smaller, and somehow renowned analysts see no problem. As a rule of thumb, the working-age population, the group that produces and consumes the most, started to shrink ten years earlier.

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The world’s most homogeneous population and Asia’s 4th largest economy will soon start declining. South Korea is the lowest fertility level country (for 16 years in a row), as a result of which its society is ageing. In 2016 there was the lowest number of births ever and the lowest level of fertility rate (1,17) in 7 years.

The number of people had grown rapidly since the republic’s establishment in 1948, but since 1966 it has started to decline because of the birth control programme.Also urbanization, accessibility of higher education, and a greater participation of women in the labour force have begun affecting the population size. Like in many cultures, in South Korean culture male descendants were very important for the continuity of the family, as they provided financial support and took care of their parents in old age, so people tried to have a son. If the first-born child was not a male, then they had as many children as was needed to eventually have a son. In 1973 a selective abortion law, limited to special cases, was passed, but it turned out to be abused in that predominantly female offspring were aborted.In general, the population number has increased in most provinces (exceptions are big cities like Seoul, Daejeon, Gwangju). Then the government stepped in by discouraging married couples from having more offspring with the slogan “have a single child and raise it well”.In 2016 total population in South Korea was over 51 mln including about 1 mln foreigns. Each demographic forecast predicts dramatic decline in the population. In 2050 probably will be 40-48 mln Koreans and in 2100 even only about 20 mln.


All these social phenomena and governmental measures have been contributing to the decrease in the nation’s birth rate and its resultant aging. Though Korea’s population growth is likely to continue for a few years yet, it will start declining rapidly, so that by 2750 South Koreans will have gone extinct. Already by 2045 Korea could be the world’s oldest country with an average age of 50. The population pyramid has begun to expand upwards which means that the number of elderly people is increasing and the number of the young and children is decreasing. The years 2016-2017 showed for the first time a decline in the working-age population aged 15-64, which means that Korea’s consumption base started shrinking. Just now people aged 65+ are 14,12% of the society and these aged 0-14 only 13,21%. Probably in less than 50 years seniors will make up over 40% of South Korea’s inhabitants.

Some of the reasons for Korea’s low birth rate are similar to those in Japan in the early 90’s. Couples do not want to have a large family because of rising costs of living, including housing and education. South Koreans have the world’s longest working hours, so they do not have time for a family or private life. At the same time there is also a high unemployment rate among young people. Women do not want to have children early in their lives because of the career, unavailability of maternity-leave and little participation of men in child raising and housework.On average, women have their first child at the age of 31. Many Koreans think that marriage is just an option. Half of the singles are under 40 and they do not feel the need to start a family. This phenomenon could also be explained with a large share of atheists and believers of no formal religion.


The low birth rate is not the only problem in South Korea: mortality is another one. South Korea is one of the countries with the highest suicide rate in the world. 40 Koreans commit suicide every day which is also the effect of decreasing numbers of believers.

This issue very often concerns elderly people. Half of those aged 65+ live in relative poverty and ¼ of them live alone. They did not put aside capital for their retirement. They are unable to find work and the level of isolation and depression has increased in an aging society. Among young people the most frequent cause of suicide is intensified stress at the workplace and educational system. 40% of suicide cases are committed under the influence of alcohol and South Korea is the world’s largest consumer of hard liquor. The average is 14 shots a week (as compared to US 3). Koreans are ashamed of psychological problems and they hardly ever are willing to undergo relevant treatment. Alcohol abuse is more acceptable than psychiatric visits. Surely, it contributes to a large number of suicides.


The demographic situation will adversely affect South Korea’s economic growth. Seoul, whose inhabitants make up 20% of the whole nation, will feel the shift in the population structure the most: its labour force will shrink. It is expected that Seoul’s population will have dropped at least by 1 million by 2040. Already in the whole country health care expenditure has increased (from 3,8% to 7,2% of GDP).

Business Insider, a New York based financial website, said that economists have suggested that the best approach in Japan and Korea could be to abandon gender roles and get more women into the labor force. Of course the Wall Street based economists know that this policy resulted in lower birthrates in Europe. Still, the New York based financial analysts are desperate looking for ways to boost the workforce in the world’s most productive countries.

Korean president Moon Jae-In also attaches importance to elderly people who are now a big part of the society and there is a need to create the living conditions suitable for such a large group. Since life expectancy has increased, it is worthwhile to create jobs for that age cohort especially when the labor force is shrinking. The president’s plan is to raise pensions, double the number of jobs for older workers with an increase in the monthly wage, finance Alzheimer and dementia treatment, and increase accessibility of social housing to elderly people.

South Korea’s government is also looking for help in having more robots in households.A good solution to South Korea’s demographic crisis would be a reunification with North Korea where the population situation appears to be more stable. The homogeneity of race would be maintained, while this seems unrealistic for now it can be an answer to the North-South crisis.

The situation of South Korea, the world’s 11th economy and 5th exporter, will affect many countries. It is a global producer of telephones, integrated circuits, cars, vehicle parts, ships, LCDs, and refined petroleum and it specializes in technology and design. In the context of trade, the circumstances in South Korea will have the biggest impact on China, US, Japan, Germany, Australia and Saudi Arabia.10)The demographic crisis will also impact the country’s security. It will change the geo-political balance as both Japan and South Korea are an extension of the US military power in East Asia.

The future of South Korea is very uncertain. There is a little time left to avoid the worst. Even so, some predict that a declining trend cannot be reversed.

Comments

Infnordz stizazz Sun, 01/14/2018 - 16:21 Permalink

No, polygamy leads to stale genetics, angry men, and war!

The solution is to purge all Feminism and most of the Sexual Revolution, and make most (((porn))) illegal or correctly regarded as harmfully addictive, and encourage people to marry young (especially women), with little/no sex before marriage, and have several children too, especially smart people!

Women having much say and too much freedoms is ruining everything, including: pushing unsustainable/corrupting state dependency, psychologically/genetically ruining hypergamy, backing unproductive/corrupting sexual deviancy, and casual-sex/marriage with inferior races.

The rich and banksters will probably have to be be forced to be a lot less greedy, and return most of their pillage, to allow men to again be a viable sole income provider for married households.

In reply to by stizazz

gdpetti zorba THE GREEK Fri, 01/12/2018 - 15:01 Permalink

Yes, and same with China... but wasn't there another article on this site today saying that Mexico has the longest working hours? and they don't have this problem... which is a development issue... the better off you get the less kids you want... before that, it's mostly a 'natural' thing.

THat said, remember the West shares this problem, but it's masked with all of our immigration from 'Mexico' et al.... same way all of our 'issues' are masked.

In reply to by zorba THE GREEK

IH8OBAMA Thu, 01/11/2018 - 23:33 Permalink

Hmmm.  Another country I need to visit and fertilize as many eggs as I'm able.  I think I'll start with those Korean Air stewardesses they show in the TV ad.

 

Cashboy Thu, 01/11/2018 - 23:38 Permalink

I do not understand what all the worries are about a falling population.

We have over population in the world.

The problem is that the governments think that they will not have tax from income on younger people to pay for healthcare of the older.

I should point out that with automation, robots and software is resulting in less jobs.

I am seeing that most people employed in new jobs are on minimum wage so not actually paying much if any tax to pay towards the healthcare of old people.

I am also seeing old people working past what was considered retirement age before.

I can see more robotic health care in the future.

 

I therefore think that a falling population is a good thing.

 

 

CunnyFunt FIAT CON Fri, 01/12/2018 - 00:01 Permalink

Look at the populations who are not reproducing. They are the more intelligent and productive. Those who are less intelligent and less productive continue to breed like rabbits. Have fun sharing your beach and engaging in deep philosophical discussions with Abdullah and his 23 Somali children.

In reply to by FIAT CON

bloofer Blankone Fri, 01/12/2018 - 02:04 Permalink

It makes sense for a country to both defend its borders and at the same time discourage--or at least not encourage--excessive population growth within its borders. But there are also some problems with this approach. You become a nation with a relatively small population, perhaps surrounded by nations that are bustin' at the seams with excess population. This makes it harder to defend your borders. It can be done, but it will take a lot of technology, enabled by a lot of wealth, to substitute for sheer numbers.

In reply to by Blankone

Scipio Africanuz Scipio Africanuz Fri, 01/12/2018 - 05:10 Permalink

My problem with race based stereotyping, is that, it is slander. Would you lump the Swiss with the Poles, the Swede, the Greeks, the Italians, and the Croats?

They're all white, and as different as night and day. To call you out, why instead of "shithole" countries, why not import poles, Croats, serbs, Greeks and all the economic displaced Europeans?

The issue as I've observed, is one of egotism. Americans are better than everyone else, simply not true! Americans are beneficiary of the good graces of fate, absolutely true!

Today, Americans shame their ancestors, and blame it on others. The problem for the USA, is that the world has woken up to the American strategy of brigandage, robbery, and grand lacerny, and said, "no mas".

And just like that, the mystique is dispelled. We need to make friends, we owe the world so much and BTW, who or what, is an American? Tell me if you know.

In reply to by Scipio Africanuz

OverTheHedge FIAT CON Fri, 01/12/2018 - 02:50 Permalink

"Why isn't population reduction a good thing....."

I would contend that it is a bit more than just government not wanting to downsize, but at the root, that ii probably the most important factor. However, as we know from years at ZH, the money supply must ALWAYS expand, along with the economy, otherwise a disaster of such biblical proportions ensues, that government may get very downsized. If we had  real money, everyone would be better off, as fewer people = more money per person. As it stands, fewer people = less money for Goldman Sachs, and we can't have that, now - can we?

 

In reply to by FIAT CON

Jack's Raging … Cashboy Thu, 01/11/2018 - 23:55 Permalink

Birth control has irrevocably altered all human societies in every way--most of which people fail to even realize. I've been developing a thesis on this for several years now. That aside, decreased birth rates would be a natural shift in equilibrium for the technological and longevity improvements of the last century. Unfortunately, the shift has as much to do with disastrous monetary policy as anything else. As I see it:

Birth control>fundamental cultural changes>inflation/stagflation>technological improvements.

There is so much to be said on this topic.

In reply to by Cashboy

Blankone Thu, 01/11/2018 - 23:42 Permalink

They will only go extinct if they bring in invaders (also called refugees, emigrates).
You do not preserve a country by overpopulation. The next generation may go through a healthy reduction in numbers. There will still be plenty of kids to maintain a population. When it is more attractive to do so they young adults will begin having more kids to a even maintenance level.

If mass population was the path to riches and advancement - India would be the richest country with the highest level of health and living conditions. Mass population leads to over use of resources, inability to feed themselves, dependency on foreign imports, excess pollution and the cheapening of life.

Thom Paine Thu, 01/11/2018 - 23:44 Permalink

Population decrease means less workers less income less wealth and an elderly health care crisis. And if you don't populate they have to bring 'others' in to fill the gap.

FIAT CON Thu, 01/11/2018 - 23:50 Permalink

As western criminals ...I mean leaders, as western leaders continue to tax the shit out of the citizen, and steal more and more freedoms, more of this is to come in a big way.

Infnordz Musum Sun, 01/14/2018 - 16:33 Permalink

That is part of it; single women must also lose a lot of state support too (none for adult education, anti-sexism, single mothers and easy divorce, theft via divorce), and be prevented from getting casual sex, especially hypergamy/adultery, so that they can have to get married to get much sex, with their husband only.

In reply to by Musum

Koba the Dread Fri, 01/12/2018 - 00:30 Permalink

Well, now! Isn't that the dumbest thing you've read in your life: By 2750 South Koreans will be extinct. The way of the dinosaur. The former people of the former South Korea. Kaput. Legends of the past. Give me a break! Click-bait bull shit. Here's what really happens if those South Koreans don't start humping more. There will be babies born and as those babies grow older they will learn to despise late capitalism's, crony capitalism's, faux capitalism's obsession with beggar-your-neighbor, me first, I'm all right, Jack and rebel. They'll kill all the old farts, start again and spawn like bunnies. Any other scenario is a fantasy of the adolescent masturbatory and scatological fantasies of the ZH brainless comment commentariat.

dunce Fri, 01/12/2018 - 01:40 Permalink

The idea that the population must grow is not supported by reason. It could well be that there is an ideal population to maintain the country but exactly what is that number and why.

EternalAnusocracy Fri, 01/12/2018 - 01:47 Permalink

Cunt balls on fire!! 

Now that I have your attention, listen to this shit.  

1.  S. Korea is 1/5th the size of California.  That's 20% the size of California.

2.  S. Korea has 50 MILLION fucking people.  California which is 5 TIMES AS BIG AS S. KOREA has 40 million people.  S. Korea would need a population of only 10 MILLION people, and it would be as densely populated a California is right now.  

Put another way, imagine 250 MILLION people in California!  That's South Korea's fucking population density RIGHT NOW.

Bottom Line:  S Korea is an extremely OVERPOPULATED NATION and only shit-faced globalists would ever be complaining that S. Korea's population is "declining".  

Whoever wrote this toilet paper article should have their left nut removed and inserted into their anus.

roddy6667 EternalAnusocracy Fri, 01/12/2018 - 02:07 Permalink

South Korea does not seem overpopulated. They have a very high standard of living. It does not seem crowded or hungry. I would not call it overpopulated. Your comparison to California is apples and oranges. Perhaps California is a failed state.

I have been to South Korea more than ten times since 2015. It is a great country with great people. Everything is clean and in good repair, and the food is fantastic.

Overpopulated my ass!

In reply to by EternalAnusocracy