What Happens To Bitcoin Next: Here Is Goldman's Latest Technical Outlook

As the cryptocarnage accelerates and as bitcoin tags $10,000, moments ago Goldman chief's chartist, Sheba Jafari, has released her latest technical outlook on various asset classes, among which bitcoin, and writes that as a result of the recent drubbing, "Bitcoin is nearing interesting levels."

According to Jafari, "the market has pulled back pretty sharply off the ~19,500 highs" a sell-off which qualifies as either:

  1. a corrective 4th wave in an unfinished 5 of V from September, or alternatively
  2. a larger degree IV of V from the ultimate low.

Either way, according to Jafari, the move lower should be viewed as corrective/counter-trend.

So from a technical perspective what are the key support lines to look for next? Goldman believes that the next important level to watch  in terms of support is an equality target off the highs at 9,978. If truly corrective, this 9,978 level should in theory be the area to watch for signs of a reversal/base.

Daily Chart

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On the other hand, any drop further than 9,836 (50% from ’15) would call into question the nature of the retracement.

Beyond there, Jafari notes that any overlap with the interim high from Nov. 8th at 7,882 invalidates any potential for this to be a 4th of 5/V.  This means that "there are clear downside supports to keep in mind. The first big pivot level being at 9,978."

Goldman's bottom line: "Watch for signs of a base ahead of 9,978. Setup weakens through 9,836. Turn neutral/cautious through 7,882."

Weekly Chart

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Comments

milking institute Plunge Protection Tue, 01/16/2018 - 18:41 Permalink

Well done PP,the Lambo you have ordered is ready for delivery,however,we have not received your down payment of 45.000.00 as of today. we value your business,please let us know how we can help!   in addition,we will not accept payment in Bitcrash,Rippled or any other Garbage coins.  thanks for your order and please let us know how we can improve your buying experiance.  sincerely Luigi.

In reply to by Plunge Protection

rphb Plunge Protection Tue, 01/16/2018 - 18:54 Permalink

The bottom is ZERO, whether it will be going there now only God knows, but it will go there eventually, and the chance of that happening this year is overwhelming.

It have simply gotten too old, and it is obsolete.

Its not digital gold, because what makes gold special is not its rarity but its chemical attributes. It is not a currency, because it is too slow and too expensive to be used as a currency.

While it can be exchanged for a currency, like a stock or a bond, it does not have any cashflow, no dividends no interest, there is no company behind it. It is a crazy mania based on absolutely nothing.

In reply to by Plunge Protection

rphb paperstreetsoapco Sat, 01/20/2018 - 19:32 Permalink

It also have no value.

Thou see when it comes to non physical things, there is always a counter party, unless of course what is offered is absolutely nothing. Commodities do not have counter party risk, because they simply is, but Bitcoin is not a commodity.

And there is nothing wrong with there being a counter party, as long as they are reliable, as long as we can trust them. Ebay could not have existed if people weren't trustworthy.

Because the default position would be: I send you junk and you send me a check that bounce.

That didn't happen, because people can be trusted, and the internet requires that.

It is a fools errand to pursue a trustless system

In reply to by paperstreetsoapco

giorgioorwell MagicHandPuppet Tue, 01/16/2018 - 18:18 Permalink

This is the most laugh out loud funny thing I've seen posted on ZH in a long time...and it's posted with no irony, snark or judgement.

There can't be any greater example of the fallacy of "technical analysis" than a Goldman Sachs analyst talking about technical levels of support for Bitcoin.    

If you enjoy the Emperor Wears No Clothes moment's then this is a top 10.

In reply to by MagicHandPuppet

lester1 Tue, 01/16/2018 - 17:52 Permalink

Bitcoin is in permanent decline. There's too much competition now from other alt coins and not enough new buyers.

 

Cash out now before you CAN'T !

coast1 Nature_Boy_Wooooo Tue, 01/16/2018 - 20:34 Permalink

I only put 500 dollars in..and yesterday I bought a broken down quad, worked on it for about 6 hours and now selling it for twice what I paid...You dont understand, I dont care..but what I did this for was to see what its all about..so far, I only lost 200 dollars..no big..what I do not like is so many people thinking they KNOW the answers..I read on zerohedge articles and comments all the time, and fine 90 percent of them are bullshit over time..All I said was something very intelligent..That, even with all the beatins bitcoin has taken, its still going..Its very strange to see here in comment section all the hatred, anger, know it alls etc...Seems to me that 99 percent of the people here are very dis-satisfied with what they have done with their lives..

In reply to by Nature_Boy_Wooooo

ProstoDoZiemi coast1 Wed, 01/17/2018 - 03:35 Permalink

Either sad so sad ohhh soo sad because they didn't get in early like the end of the world apocalypse bullshit genius analysts that they think they are    or     too old to grasp the concept

I didn't get in early but I do congratulate those that made a mint,  I sort of get an idea of what this is about where people are wagering on the technology that's not yet been adopted by businesses through these coins - this is like betting on the assembly line before Ford puts them to use on the Model T

I'm too old to understand snapchat or Instagram, WTF is all that about

In reply to by coast1

zvzzt Tue, 01/16/2018 - 18:07 Permalink

Seriously.... Chief chartist at GS and not even using log charts on a weekly basis.... for fuck sake... they could have me for 1/2 the price... 

flyonmywall Tue, 01/16/2018 - 18:28 Permalink

They said it would never get to $1000 either, and now it is still 10x above that....

Hey, if it's a tulip, just get in at the right time, and make some money. Don't do what Mark Twain did.

 

CunnyFunt Tue, 01/16/2018 - 18:38 Permalink

I looked into buying cryptos a while back, but then realized that they are not so crypto. Coinbase wanted me to link my card or bank account. I'm glad I didn't fall for the hype.

Heavy metal, bitchez!

Bubble Man CunnyFunt Tue, 01/16/2018 - 19:31 Permalink

"I looked into buying cryptos a while back, but then realized that they are not so crypto. Coinbase wanted me to link my card or bank account. I'm glad I didn't fall for the hype."

I did as well and was ready to buy in.  Until I had to scan in my driver's license and link a checking/savings account.  I have no problem linking a credit card, but after the equifax and gawd knows how many other online hacks I'm not comfortable storing savings/checking account info and ID online.  I looked into coinbase paying out to my paypal account as an alternative to still get in. You can buy but not receive funds from selling into paypal.

That was the last straw that convinced me not to take the plunge into cryptos. I prefer annoy transactions.  I pay for everything I can in cash, and use a credit card for everything else.  It is a lot easier to dispute charges on credit cards, where you have yet to pay, than debit card/checking/savings where the $$ is already gone and it's your burden of proof to prove the charges are fraudulent.

Just my 2 cents from an individual that had his identity stolen in 08. 

 

In reply to by CunnyFunt

LaugherNYC Tue, 01/16/2018 - 18:55 Permalink

This is awesome! GOLDMAN SACHS is now touting TECHNICAL ANLYSIS as a basis for asset valuation??? Are you fucking KIDDING ME???? 

Charts are a picture of nothing more than mass psychology. They have zero legitimacy as a measure of value. Goldman is clearly selling the living shit out of BITCOIN and trying to do anything it can to coax buyers back in to the market so they can unload on them. 

Folks, BITCOIN trading is 100% unregulated. This is Goldman’s wet dream. That means they can conspire, collude, lie, cheat, DO WHATEVER THE FUCK THEY WANT, with ZERO regulatory repercussions. Normally, they don’t even give a rat’s ass if a market IS regulated. Is it a coincidence that BITCOIN hit its ATH almost exactly when Goldman came into the market???

To all you crypto-weenies who think this thing has any value or future, YOU ARE NOW TRADING AGAINST THE BIGGEST, SLIMIEST TURDS IN THE UNIVERSE. THEY ARE OUT TO TAKE ALL YOUR MONEY. They will step back and let it run up a few times to keep you in, and the shit out of it again.

 

THIS IS WHAT THEY DO. I WORKED THERE. I WARNED YOU AT 18K I WARNED YOU AT 17K. I WARNED YOU AT 15K I WARNED YOU AT 13K. I never posted a word about it until I saw GS come in to the market. That made me get off my ass and try to warn people. I am NOT a genius. Hell, I’m cognitively compromised, because I got so sick from working so hard at GS I wound up with a brain injury. They even screwed me when I was disabled - over pennies!

After all, it is God’s work to alleviate the mass’ burden by emptying their wallets. Face it.If you own and trade BITCOIN you are a greedy fuck. And GS LOVES greedy fucks. They drink your milkshake.  HAHAHAHAHHAHAAHHA!!!!!

If you NEED any of the money you have in BITCOIN, get OUT on any bounce. You should have when I told you the first time. The day GS & their friends are either prohibited from, or voluntarily leave, this market, is the day it will be safe to go back in.

Cryptos are a fine idea. Seeing them as an “investment” is a stupid one. There are no barriers to entry. There is no reserve. Do you ‘invest’ in dollars if you live in the USA? Do you “invest” in yen if you live in Japan? No — they are not an investment vehicle, they are a vehicle of exchange. Until cryptos are 100% instantly fungible, they are not even that. Unless you plan to go live in a virtual world, you will need to exchange your BITC for dollars or yen to pay your taxes, and your rent, and your rather large utility bills. Yes, GS will be happy to hold all your silly dollars until you need them back. Oh, you have BITC to trade?? BAHAhAhHAHAHHAHAHA!

Walter White Tue, 01/16/2018 - 20:40 Permalink

wow, a bunch of crybabies who missed the crypto train...

 

you think its over?  oh my....its hardly just getting warmed up..

 

oh well, keep riding your horse drawn buggies...and i'll bet its fun using an outhouse...

 

if you had bought only 6 months ago, you would still be up 3X...morons.