"Yesterday Never Happened" - Stocks Stage Furious Melt-Up , Crypto-Crash Stalls

"Here, hold my beer..."

Today was The Dow's biggest point gain since the election - to a new record high above 26,100 (NOTE again that VIX ended the day higher - more call-buying?)




After the biggest reversal in 2 years, stocks exploded higher today (even with an opening dip)... (just look at the linear nature of the ramp higher... does that look human to anyone? Smells like automated buybacks being spread)



Trannies and Small Caps remain red on the week.


Futures show the chaotic trading this week, another overnight ramp, opening dump...




AAPL ran weekly stops on its headlines, then dropped, then ripped vertically to the highs of the day...



Facebook briefly went red for 2018 today...



Semiconductor stocks exploded most since the election today with SOX breaking to a new record high...



GS and BAC started the day off ugly but dip-buyers ran them higher by the close...


Treasury yields were higher today with the belly underperforming (2Y and 30Y +2bps, 5-10Y +4bps) - 30Y still lower on the week




The yield curve flattened once again (2s30s -1bp on the day to 79bps - new cycle lows)...



The Dollar Index was miraculously bid (off the lowest levels since Dec 2014) around 1400ET (AAPL repatriation headlines), everything got excited with a spike in the dollar...



That sent USDJPY higher, slammed gold, and hit Treasury prices...



The Dollar's kneejerk higher sent commodities lower with all now in the red on the week...




Having collapsed earlier in the day, Cryptocurrencies rebounded back to unchanged and beyond...



Bitcoin rebounded off plunge lows at $9200, surging back above $10,500...



As a reminder, Bitcoin tends to have a seasonal tendency to drop into the lunar new year and rally out of it...




HRClinton newmacroman Wed, 01/17/2018 - 16:20 Permalink

I'm thinking of all the ne'r do well Bubbas from this morning, who were having a Schadenfreude fest about CCs and predicting its demise -- for the 100th time.

I'm already past my BTFD from yesterday and today's swap of BTC for several Altcoins on a P2P exchange (outside the USSA Plantation).

Oh, and the hundreds upon hundreds of Philharmonics that I got in Nov-Dec (in private swap) are still there. Who's laughing still, Moldtimers?

Got brains? Got guts? Got crypto? Don't get some. You'll be more miserable that way, when your ridiculing boomerangs.

In reply to by newmacroman

Keltner Channel Surf Wed, 01/17/2018 - 16:06 Permalink

Afternoon Delight”       by   Starland Vocal Band

Gonna find my broker, ask her for a big bite
Gonna grab me some weekly calls in SPY
My motto's always been, when it's right it's right
Why wait until the middle of a Globex night

When everything trades a little better in the light of day
And the night session’s always gonna be there anyway

Watchin’ Bloomberg’s workin’ up my appetite
Gettin’ quotes from Scarlet Fu is pure delight
I watch my bull condor grow as she reports new highs
But it’s the thought of clubbin' shorts that gets me most excited

SPY rocket's in flight, the afternoon ignites;  A-a-afternoon delight

Started out this morning tradin’ overnight
But it was too dark to get our positions right
You’ve got a butterfly spread that sounds alright
So let’s give her a try while there’s still some light

SPY rocket's in flight, the afternoon ignites;  A-a-afternoon delight

Please have something waitin’ for me when your hedge’s unwound
We could even leg into a straddle ‘fore the sun goes down

Thinkin’ of SPY’s workin’ up my appetite . . .

Keltner Channel Surf BlueHorseShoeLovesDT Wed, 01/17/2018 - 16:25 Permalink

Those in our age group will recall being loaded into station wagons in 1976 on our way to the Sizzler restaurant (or other family feeding trough) and having our fathers reach in embarrassment for the volume knob when this bluegrass-driven ode to the joy of afternoon sex, which had somehow become a Top 40 hit, came on the car radio.  In retrospect, the 70s were a strange time ...

In reply to by BlueHorseShoeLovesDT

spastic_colon Wed, 01/17/2018 - 16:06 Permalink

nothing says value like an average p/e of 28 on the dow lol...........BA = 32, CAT = 117, KO = 44...........the top ten stock accounted for 235 points even with GS accounting for -33............index buying FOMO/CB's.......so obvious.


the scorched earth from the outgoing fed continues..............

D.r. Funk Wed, 01/17/2018 - 16:07 Permalink

You cant get the synthetically cuckoo circuslike 200+ dow tomorrow. Guess what? You cant get it tomorrow.

The games you're playing are so blatant. Pffffffffffft. Games I surmised 2+ yrs ago

Public: how much higher until you realize something odd and or problematic is happening? How much higher?
Managers: Too late already it's everyone-will-be-running-for-the-exits-at-the-same-time if you speak up

Anomalously exaggerated retreat - Anomalously overexaggerated magic followup surge - Meaning suggestive that someone is pushing a button separate from any data, news, real world news or econ or conditions or situations, whatsoever?...

History: everything comporting to an endgame. As ive said.
When you cant get the circuslike dow tomorrow See my ass Pucker up
Bet you cant get 27k dow...... this week
SUB 11 VIX fabricated forced operation
3% DRAWDOWN LAPSE closer to reaching that point of elimination
ADDITIONAL FORGED LEG not gonna convince me [it] can go forever
PROGRAMMED ATH PSYOP ' cant go forever '

D.r. Funk Snaffew Wed, 01/17/2018 - 16:25 Permalink

You realize that's the whole point right.

They can't withhold a 3% pullback forever? 5%? They can't maintain unceasingly perpetual ath's forever. They can't produce an unending leg up forever. Can't hold vix subnormal abnormal forever. In a commandeered, programmed stock market, It's a fully commandeered mechanism

Regardless of they. It cant go, forever, without a 3%. Cant go forever, without 5. Cant go, forever, attaining ath, forever. Cant go on the current leg forever, forever. It's extremely hard to argue there isn't a they. I'm merely fucking playing their game to win

Are you that dumb?

In reply to by Snaffew

Keltner Channel Surf D.r. Funk Wed, 01/17/2018 - 17:07 Permalink

Mr. Funk, I beat you up yesterday with my Squirrel fable, so I’ll make it up to you with a few well-meant thoughts for you to absorb or reject as you see fit:

A) Non-traders will be understandably perplexed, but per the new reality of volatility-envelope driven mean-reversion, which is the most popular overall AGGREGATE algorithmic technique, since early January SPY, IWM, QQQs and COMP have all generally been bouncing between two standard, classic key volatility envelope levels, specifically DAILY Bollinger bands (exponential, 1.0 and 2.0 factors), while topping out at the WEEKLY Bol 2.0. (Only the Dow has gone a bit haywire)

What does that mean?  The ‘classic’ mean-reversion play (from about 2010 forward) is to bounce outward from envelope centers to envelope limits in all time-frames then back to the center mean.  Depending on amplitude, buy-side activity, newsflow, etc., algos battle to either take it back to the center, or bust shorts for a play to the next higher envelope limit (e.g., Hourly out to Daily, Daily out to Weekly, etc).  No, you can’t set your watch as to exact path or time frame, but the point is that these are, without question, the main current battle lines (but only part of a much more complex framework I can't expound on without taking another 3 pages, so think 'high level' only.) 

Does it mean they can’t be breached, or fake-outs can’t occur?  Certainly not.  Instead, it’s precisely in busting these larger stops that the sudden moves are occurring.  Moreover, though these mean-reverters occupy the bulk of intraday activity, they are NOT the only players, and can be overrun by Fed comments, extraneous players such as risk-parity funds, large retail inflows, etc.  In other words, you are precisely wrong in thinking the outcome is rigged.  However, the ‘intersections’, as in a city block, are roughly, but not precisely, defined by these envelope limits simply because many are using them and, by definition, they're moving targets that crush old-school ‘straight line’ technicians using trend lines, Fibbi’s, etc.   All that’s been happening is they’ve been shorting at the Daily & Weekly 2.0 Bollingers back down to the 1.0 Daily Bol’s, where others are re-buying.  Think of this as chess with explosives, or tennis with ball bearings.

B) As a chess player, when you get a match with a top opponent whose skill set you suspect exceeds your own, and make the same naive opening gambit again and again, how often do you win?

So, consider whether your “it’s all centrally rigged” theory makes sense with a Fed, Goldman and other big guns who seem to be confused and floundering, or whether players using techniques you haven’t considered are interacting and cancelling out like sound waves in ‘flanging’ or ‘chorus’ effects (anyone remember “Pictures of Matchstick Men”?  Sorry, Funk, I imagine you weren’t born yet …)

In reply to by D.r. Funk

BlueHorseShoeLovesDT Keltner Channel Surf Wed, 01/17/2018 - 17:52 Permalink

Exactly, well said.


Mean reversion is by far the strongest force in this “market”, the easiest way to think of it is we have already been there, why shouldn’t we go right back to those levels.


Perception is the second strongest force.

For Example:

Corporate taxes are lower, thus stawk prices must be higher, all else equal.

In reply to by Keltner Channel Surf

BlueHorseShoeLovesDT Keltner Channel Surf Wed, 01/17/2018 - 18:07 Permalink

I am a gut kinda of guy. I try to look at what people are thinking and doing, I don’t try to rationalize it, l think that is where most traders fail. Things like thinking it can’t go any higher can kill you.


I try to gauge sentiment, I also look at where things have been. I look at mean reversion and auction market theory.


I also don’t stay in things if they don’t work in my time frame which is usually very short 

In reply to by Keltner Channel Surf

Keltner Channel Surf BlueHorseShoeLovesDT Wed, 01/17/2018 - 18:17 Permalink

I believe T1 is an AM theory guy as well, something like "market Delta" rings a bell.

I'm an oddball in that I purely use charts (no software or even Level II quotes), but charts adapted to M-R, with classic TA largely out the window (no MACD, etc.).  Given the precision of algorithms, however, I'm increasingly using volume analytics, for that's the one area where 'they' can't 'lie', though figuring out how to filter out the noise isn't easy.  Very short term charts can provide clues, but only in the context of longer charts, given how the annoying saw-toothing is repeated fractally in all periods, like a financial Mandelbrot Set.

In reply to by BlueHorseShoeLovesDT

Keltner Channel Surf BlueHorseShoeLovesDT Wed, 01/17/2018 - 18:38 Permalink

That's what I thought.  I'm more of a park guy, but view each day as a potential puzzle to be cracked, using custom amplitude measures to decide if I get to home with one long uppercut, or two doubles off the wall.  Unlike America's pastime, I'll also run clockwise around the bases, if that's where larger players seem to be headed ...

In reply to by BlueHorseShoeLovesDT

Overleveraged_… Wed, 01/17/2018 - 16:08 Permalink

Folks, I've got to say. Life has simply never been better. All I have to do is sit back, pour myself a glass of iced tea and watch the money flow into my account. This is because I made the decision to pour all of my life savings and subsequent income into 3x Long Leveraged S&P500 throughout the duration of 2017. The fact of the matter is that World Central Banks have NO choice but to keep printing dollars and using them to buy Stocks. There are too many pension funds that rely on the S&P 500 being at all time highs. To allow prices to drop at this point would basically negate Donald Trumps entire first year, and he will simply not allow that to happen.

All aboard the train folks. It's funny, I originally started looking at this site due to it's bearish and realistic perspectives. However, as much as I love Zero Hedge they have simply not been correct in terms of predicting a market crash. It's not their fault however, as it's no longer POSSIBLE for a stock market crash to occur. We are now in the new financial paradigm and the only direction the market can go based on supply and demand of money is UP.

The days of expecting major crashes and corrections is far behind us. It's not too late either. We will likely see 3000 by end of year, and 4500 by end of 2019. Sure, get some bitcoins too, because anything valued in dollars is going to go up. I've been doing so well that I have quit my job and now can do whatever I'd like to with my day. Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to go play the robot shooting game on Occulus Rift. Happy wednesday ya'll.

D.r. Funk Full Court Lug… Wed, 01/17/2018 - 16:42 Permalink

Not a goofball. Every bit of language used would equate to that of someone, if the case, desiring to collapse a financial system and entice all bears to go long and change stance. Even if you believe the scenario is bunk hogwash, the language used, is irrefutably, describable that way. Can't argue, that the linguistics Exactly Match if that were the case

In reply to by Full Court Lug…