Blain: "Joke About His Weight And Porn Stars, But You've Got To Admit: Trump Is Changing Stuff"

Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners

Flying Saucer Lands in Cupertino as Trump confirms he's a genius.

“Round the decay of that colossal wreck, boundless and base, the lone and level sands stretch far away...”

A thunderdous tweet twitters around the globe as Tax Reform causes a gigantic flying saucer to descend from the sky, and alight upon the small Californian town of Cupertino. Let joy be unconfined as the crew announce they will pay $40 bln in taxes, spend billions on contracts to local suppliers, and create thousands of jobs across America. Someone might be economical with the truth about his weight, height and (allegedly) porn stars, but you’ve got to admit, he’s changing stuff, he’s almost disruptive..…?

Is it good?

A more logical article on Bloomberg y’day asks the simple question: what happens when US corporates start to repatriate some of the $3.1 trillion they currently hold offshore? In truth, much of the cash is already there via complex structures. Cupertino’s Apple Park wasn’t built in a day. US companies will pay a 15% tax on repatriation, but many will opt to bring it home as “less liquid assets” (which could include bond holdings – just saying the Apple has a $150 bln credit portfolio) – which is a 8% tax hit.

Ultimately…is all that money going to be invested in new plant, factories, offices and jobs? I’ll admit whenever I’ve had a problem with an Apple product and sought help the service has been good – usually an interested, enthused and friendly Irish person sorting it out. But many of the support jobs that will be created by repatriated cash coming back to an America already close to full employment will be in call-centre service warehouses. Or in robotic delivery services.

Most of the cash will have to be (or remain) invested. As interest rates are set to inevitably rise (the 10-yr T-Bond at 2.60% this morning), its unlikely US companies will be putting new overseas cash into likely loss making bond funds. Neither is there any point in repaying any of their cheap outstanding debt early.

Apple is a case in point. After tax it will still have $230 bln to play with. Its said it will spend on US suppliers – great multiplier effect on the economy, but how much won’t still go offshore? My colleague Ara Levonian of BGC notes this morning; “whatever the wisful thinking of investment banks, Apple is unlikely to go shopping for Netflix and Tesla.” I’m not so sure – with all that money… but let’s assume there isn’t a feeding frenzy.

So what will they do with all that dosh? Simples! Buy-back even more of their own stock! The great “on-shoring” is going to be like QE on seriously strong steroids for the US stock market. And just like Steriod abuse – it’s never long-term healthy.

Short-term its brilliant! I’m long many of the largest repatriation names! What’s not to like about the value of stock going up? Every time I say stock buy backs are unimaginative and simply inflate the value of a stock, some smart-lipped Yank comes back with a comment: “and what is wrong with that… it makes me richer!” True – but does such financial asset inflation actually add anything? Stock ownership becomes more concentrated as prices rise. Less shares, but the company is worth the same so the outstanding shares are more valuable. You’ve got financial asset inflation, but the net sum value of the economy hasn’t changed…

And in terms of that 8% tax play on illiquid assets, the same Bloomberg notes points out cash rich US corporates are some of the largest corporate debt holders also. Apple owns more that $150 bln of corporate paper and 60 bln of govie debt! Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and 5 others account for 66% of overseas cash held by S&P500 firms.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond, what is going wrong here in the UK. We’ve got yet another political crisis revolving around the collapse of Carillion, the stunned realisation of the pernicious effects of PPI managed projects (great piece in the FT this morning), and a mounting sense of the WTF is going on?

We’re waking up to a new reality about corporate Britain and it stinks. Ask the question how the management of some of the UK’s largest companies can behave with such utter reckless disregard for the consequences of their greed. We once thought companies extracting enormous dividends for owners, paying their managers enormously inflated salaries, leaving the pension pot empty, and treating workers as wage slaves was a solitary Philip Green type event. Nope! It seems to have become the standard business plan for a whole generation of morally bankrupt get-rich-whatever-the-damage lowlifes that have somehow floated to the surface of the corporate toilet!

The negative effects across the economy are immense. For every Carillion – dozens of major suppliers, hundreds of contractors and thousands of local business take hits forcing them closer to bankruptcy.

It’s not getting easier. A recent report from Begbies Traynor, the leading insolvency business says more than 500,000 UK business are in financial distress, a rise of 36% since last year. The firm quotes a whole number of issues including macro-economic pressures, rising inflation, stagnant real wages, the weak point, political uncertainty, tight credit conditions and rising cashflow and working capital deficits. Not easy. And even more difficult when a major firm appointed by government to manage projects hasn’t pay its invoices.

Someone needs shot. We have a little list. They never will be missed.

Finally, (and read this quietly lest someone report you for double-un-plus-good-think), I read yesterday about some MiFID teething problems… Naturally I hesitate to say anything as criticism of MiFID is executable thot-crime. I shouldn’t say anything as my brain is only normal sized, and you need the brain the size of a middling galaxy to fully comprehend the majesty, breadth and magnificence of MiFID.. Apparently, I can’t possibly understand it, but it would appear that the market data we’re on pain of painful death to report re every single price we post, request we respond to, cup of coffee we drink, trades we complete, etc, etc, might have gone missing in the processing process.

Something like “the MDP passing ARM data to ESMA to FIRDS” had a glitch. If you know what it means, please explain. Apparently its fixed – so no more excuses..

Comments

jcaz Thu, 01/18/2018 - 06:25 Permalink

Wow, that's really gonna fuck up the libtard's blind hate of the man.....  

Nah- can't fix stupid.

Go Trump.  

Barry couldn't have DREAMED of bringing this tax deal home.

LongMarch jcaz Thu, 01/18/2018 - 06:27 Permalink

This isn't copypasta, this actually happened over the past year at my company. Several other companies in the area are experiencing similar issues with their visas.

I'm an IT guy, a developer to be exact. I've been around the H1B issue for about 20 years and things have always gotten worse, never better. Despite Trump's fantastic rhetoric during the campaign, I didn't believe he'd make any real changes or fix anything. However, what I've seen over the past year demonstrates this is definitely not true.

My development team is probably 90 percent indian. The manager of our department is indian and the hiring managers are all indian and they have all stated pretty openly that they prefer hiring indians. Whenever there are layoffs, non-indians get cut. Whenever there is hiring, more indians get brought on board. They get paid about 40k a year less than I do, they work hard and they don't complain. I think they produce garbage quality work for the most part, but I don't think the managers care. It's slowly rotting away the quality of the software but again, they don't care.

Anyway, the typical scenario is that every year, a stack of visas goes in for renewal and about a week later they come back stamped [APPROVED]. Very easy. At the start of this year, instead of coming back approved, each application came back with a huge list of questions and requests for documentation about why the applicants were being paid so little. The lawyers were confused and assembled a huge pile of documentation for each applicant and sent it back. Every single application then came back with either more questions or a denial. EVERY SINGLE ONE is either in limbo or denied (you must go back!). I've heard this from multiple sources, including several who had their visas held up.

As a result of this, our company's HR department has quietly decided (I heard this through the grapevine talking to several department heads) to no longer hire employees that need sponsorship. I've talked with recruiters and with people I know in several other companies in the area and I've heard similar stories everywhere. Pretty much unless you're making 120k a year on a visa, you're going to get yanked. The guys like WIPRO and INFOSYS must be shitting their pants over this.

And salaries for developers are already rising as a result. Salaries have been stagnant for several years but in Q4 2017, they started going up noticeably in this area. Trump is truly making IT great again.

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/7pnc4s/trump_quietly_worki…

In reply to by jcaz

JimmyJones new game Thu, 01/18/2018 - 08:03 Permalink

Yeah I am seeing the same thing, with software you get what you pay for. We found it much more cost effective to just hire our own programmers (young Americans) to re-write our business applications, since we now have rewritten almost all of them we have seen a large uptick in productivity. All of our apps are web-based data base driven (typically PHP/SQL) now. This allows us to very quickly change them to fit the individual departments needs by adding or removing functions, report generation and the ability if we allow it to data mine other applications data, sometimes there is overlap between departments.

Since making this switch almost 6 years ago we have expanded our programming staff and are now just hiring programmers that can also service PCs. Most American programmer's can service a PC with their eyes closed. 

It's working very well for us. Because the quality is excellent compared to the garbage that private custom software companies are producing for business applications. 

All in all the biggest Advantage by doing it this way is the ability for our programming staff to sit with the average non-technical worker and be able to speak in layman's terms while creating the software application. Basically we create exactly what they need and that process brings about new ideas to enhance the product so really what we're doing is allowing the actual worker to take part in the design process this produces a product that they actually enjoy to use because they helped create it. 

In reply to by new game

MEFOBILLS attila404 Thu, 01/18/2018 - 15:26 Permalink

The Indian government actually set up colleges to train Indian's in IT, in order to get rid of population.

India cannot keep their population down, so U.S. has to suffer.  Short sighted companies in U.S. want to hire H1B peeps, to then steal their labor value.  It is labor arbitrage.  

Driving labor price up, makes Indians not viable, so now are sent back.  Yeah!

True price of Indian labor is the crap they produced, and long term negative effects of their presence, especially in social friction.  If they become citizens, then they chain migrate, and their parents go on welfare and medical, a net negative.  Their children in enough generations will regress to a mean IQ of 90, the same as in India.

This idea that all people are the same, that labor is fungible, and immigration is an unmitigated good, needs to nuked.  Anybody who has that narrative in their brain, needs to be challenged, violently if necessary.  If you think that all people are the same, that labor is fungible, and that immigration is good, I have a size 15 foot ready for your ass - it needs to be kicked.

Wrestle them to the ground, and don't be nice about it.   Inventors and creators want their patrimony to go to THEIR PROGENY, not imported wage slaves.  A lot of captains of industry are NOT inventors and creators, they are simple rent seekers. 

These people that are apologists for immigration in its various guises are helping out plutocracy.  They are apologist dupes.  In all cases, immigration is to take wage arbitrage.  All the secondary excuses, like the other races other than white men are great, whites need to die, women can do no wrong, are knock on effects of a main vector ..said vector is a desire for wage arbitrage, and easy living for plutocracy.  It is double bad think to point out that plutocrats are often Jews who have NO FEELING at all for their host society.

 

 

In reply to by attila404

gatorengineer LongMarch Thu, 01/18/2018 - 07:15 Permalink

Well I hope that you are right, I work in a Project / Engineering office of a large multi-national, this particular office has 72 employees, and represent probably 10 countries among them, mostly H1B Chinese / Indian, and we are not seeing that, at least yet.  H1Bs have crushed Salaries in an already struggling engineering business by at least a third over the last 10 years (and I am talking about raw numbers, not inflation corrected ones).  

Lets see.

In reply to by LongMarch

Son of Loki LongMarch Thu, 01/18/2018 - 08:03 Permalink

@jcaz

<<Barry couldn't have DREAMED of bringing this tax deal home.>>

 

Barry would have never sough to lower taxes on the middle class. His only goal was to destroy them. Hillary and Bernie would have raised taxes to 65% (as stated in their platform) and added a "Reparation Tax" on crackers to pay for BLM.

 

Hillary and Bernie both bragged about these higher taxes to pay for all the free shit they promised welfare recipients and illegals.

The middle class would have really "felt the Bern" if Sanders had gotten elected.

 

In reply to by LongMarch

lew1024 LongMarch Thu, 01/18/2018 - 12:06 Permalink

I saw that process of degrading software quality killing companies ever since getting into the business. Indians and Chinese engineers were often part of the problem, but American management set the priorities, marketing deadlines were more important that delivering a working product with minimal maintenance costs for both parties.

Once you have foreigners as managers, the process is downhill very quickly. Product lines are ended and maintainance moved overseas, companies are rolled up, ...

I never heard anyone in management claim they actually saved $ moving work overseas. At best, it reduced the problem of staffing projects. Normally, all that happened was to slow down the work proportionately to the cost reduction, and also lower quality,decreasing customer satisfaction and increasing management problems all the way.

 

In reply to by LongMarch

lanceelliott LongMarch Fri, 01/19/2018 - 03:16 Permalink

" They get paid about 40k a year less than I do, they work hard and they don't complain. I think they produce garbage quality work for the most part, but I don't think the managers care. It's slowly rotting away the quality of the software but again, they don't care. "

I saw this situation emerge, in force, about 1998, or so. It caused a tipping point in politics, as well.

I hope this fix doesn't get "fixed" by cronies, anytime soon.

 

In reply to by LongMarch

Pasadena Phil jcaz Thu, 01/18/2018 - 06:52 Permalink

Yet ZH finds a way to turn it into a negative by assuming that most of the money will go back overseas due to US "worker shortages" and better uses of that money overseas. Two responses.

  1. Apple should be very happy that they can again get a good deal in America so that they don't have to surrender their intellectual property rights to China.
  2. Pay US workers what the market demands and there will be no shortage. This will trigger the economic multiplier effect while addressing the "stock price inflation" by creating real value with money that won't be used buying back shares.

Trump just announced a threat of "big fines" to counter China's intellectual property theft. Even if it triggers a trade war which, being the most efficient economy in the world, the one with property rights and contract law, the US is best suited to win. Think this has anything to do with Apple's decision to not only repatriate its foreign cash but also begin repatriating it's core business?

Keep in mind that many of the facilities to be built in the US will be ultra-modern and deploying technology to counter Chinese and other foreign slave labor, technology Apple will no longer be forced to share with China. Suddenly, efficiency matters again and a flood of companies follow Apple's lead. The 4% of the world's population that dominated in the 20th century is back in business as the most prosperous, freest and most powerful country in the world.

See libertarians? Rules matter. All games are defined by their rules. Empty-headed "deregulation" only profits those corrupt oligarchs know as "Masters of the Universe" who sell out their country in pursuit of a foolish utopian "one world" dream, a road to global poverty for all but a very small few.

Trump is beginning to bring back efficient and effective regulation in lieu of ponderous bureaucracy. This leads to smaller government and a stronger economy. Winning!!!

In reply to by jcaz

MEFOBILLS HopefulCynical Thu, 01/18/2018 - 15:51 Permalink

I became very cynical of Libertarian-ism, after tracing their roots back to the ((source)).

To carry on with false narratives, even when shown differently, requires some sort of mental deception.  

Libertarian economics has been shown to be false repeatedly, and yet it persists.  Unlimited immigration is also bad, destroying the patrimony of previous generations.  

Markets are not perfect price predictors.  Humans do form in-groups; humans form monopoly, and change laws to feather-bed, etc.   To ignore this reality is to be slightly "tarded."

LIbertarians are for "market money" and globalism.  I get it that most Libertarians mean well, but they are simply wrong.  Then you have to ask yourself, where does Libertarian funding come from.  

 Below link is PCR schooling Molyneux, yet Molyneux has not since recanted his libertarian ideas.  Mostly Stephen has a sour look on his face, but he has no intellectual firepower to challenge PCR.  Molyneux is thus an intellectual weakling unable to confront his own internal contradictions. 

That's the thing, when you are wrong, you can get trapped - you don't have the answers.  Any coherent ideology is airtight, Libertarianism is full of holes and contradictions.

When I first wandered into ZH, libertarians gave me their best shot - most of them are gone now.  It would be me against the entire ZH community sometimes.  It was a lot of fun being attacked from all sides.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjOAO9bu_eQ&t=58s

In reply to by HopefulCynical

Everybodys All… jcaz Thu, 01/18/2018 - 07:32 Permalink

This is the path that should have been chosen by Barack Obama rather than the bailing out of the banks and his onslaught of regulations. Granted some rescues were necessary but the all out assault on capitalism is why we now have a massive debt staring us in the face every day. Bankruptcy is a part of capitalism and Obama chose to rescue rather than bankrupt.

This is the last chance of capitalism in our country and if Trump doesn't put forth and succeed with some pretty big spending cuts this attempt will fail. If success does not occur I'm afraid we are looking at Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or worse styled socialism which will mean the end of prosperity and this country.

In reply to by jcaz

whatisthat Thu, 01/18/2018 - 06:27 Permalink

I would observe the corrupt establishment is sowing its discord at the juvenile level which may suggest the end of their control is closer every day...

css1971 Thu, 01/18/2018 - 06:27 Permalink

Great example of why you should never elect a career politician.

A career politician will sell anything he thinks can get him elected, and then once elected will sell all of the principles that elected him.

Most of European politics is dominated by people who have done nothing in their lives but politics. Result - disaster.

shovelhead whatisthat Thu, 01/18/2018 - 07:42 Permalink

Depends on who writes the history.

History is full of junk scholarship molding facts to shape a thesis. Some of the best pose the prevailing or alternate views and examine where they fall short rather than present their own findings as a fait accompli.

Facts and the logical conclusions drawn from those events do matter. No feelz allowed.

In reply to by whatisthat

vegas Thu, 01/18/2018 - 06:41 Permalink

They do it as a distraction from reality, simply cuz their boy, ex-Preezy Empty Suit, couldn't accomplish shit during 8 years despite all the huff & bluff about how wonderful he was. Obama couldn't operate an ice cream stand at the beach and make it work cuz he's a Libtard fuckup, and everybody knows it, especially Libtards.

 

www.traderzoogold.blogspot.com

Mareka Thu, 01/18/2018 - 06:41 Permalink

Trump has remained loyal to the promises that resulted in him getting the office.

The past 12 months have proven that he has the intelligence and tenacity to get results, even from some of the people who originally didn't want him there.

He was however wrong about one thing.

I'm not getting tired of winning.

Sanity Bear Thu, 01/18/2018 - 06:51 Permalink

"coming back to an America already close to full employment"

Bullshit alert.

A true condition of being "close to full employment" will be marked by a rapid rise in wages. We're not even close to there, we are not even at "no longer losing ground against inflation" yet.

gatorengineer RedBaron616 Thu, 01/18/2018 - 07:20 Permalink

Salaries in engineering are dropping every year.  I have a friend who teaches Mechanical Engineering at Lehigh, and he says the last two years are the first he has seen where the grads in engineering arent getting jobs at any salary.

We have close to 100 million people not in the taxable workforce.  I would guess 40 million of those are working under the table, when even at the low end .gov is taking 30 percent of your check its better to work for cash.  That leaves 60 million not in the workforce sitting on the dole....

In reply to by RedBaron616

wmbz Thu, 01/18/2018 - 06:52 Permalink

Even your run of the mill basic moron libtard should understand that cutting taxes is a good thing. When a company or individual gets to hang on to more of the money that they have earned, they usually invest, spend, pay down debt or save it.

Liberals/big government supporters loath the idea, because fewer taxes coming into government coffers unsets their desire to control what it done with the money. Tax revenue keeps growing in the federal coffers yet it is never enough.

We are taxed and levied all of our lives and beyond, and it is pissed away by these loathsome creatures that did not lift one finger to earn it.

Taxes need to be cut to the bone and government reduced massively, but good luck with that, the beast will just have to be killed off at some point.

 

shovelhead wmbz Thu, 01/18/2018 - 08:02 Permalink

Isn't it funny how all the doom from tax cuts is coming from people who NEVER consider that perhaps the real problem is that GOVT. spends too much on the wrong things?

The fact is that Main Street pays all taxes in the end. Period. Ask any businessman whose taxes increase where the money comes from. Small and medium businesses that have to compete with Multinat pricing monopolies hate raising their prices and would much rather lower them to capture a larger market share.

In reply to by wmbz

RedBaron616 Thu, 01/18/2018 - 06:58 Permalink

Yeah, Trump has changed things all right. Now we wonder about a nuclear exchange with North Korea. Then the clown signed on to Russian sanctions, all the while claiming he was against them.

Personally, both main political parties are the enemy. They are destroying America, including Trump, with perpetual wars and mountains of red ink. Make America Great Again? When is NAFTA going to be shredded? When is Red China's trade be brought to heel? Big Corporations have Trump's ear and he'll do nothing about trade issues than jawbone. Just like the wall won't get built and the illegal so-called Dreamers will be allowed to stay. No cuts to welfare. Yeah, keep your change.

WTFUD RedBaron616 Thu, 01/18/2018 - 07:12 Permalink

Constructing mine as you posted but share your sentiment. The Whole World doesn't revolve around Uncle Scam, only that's how Trump & the Rest view matters and Engage accordingly. 50k Indians being thrown out of IT jobs doesn't bring back Manufacturing, no that would take 30 years and Trillions in Investment and most likely with US Wage Requirements, prove most Uneconomical.

The attack on Russia's air-base in Syria must have had a Trump Green Light, and reeks of suicidal ambitions.

In reply to by RedBaron616

WTFUD Thu, 01/18/2018 - 07:02 Permalink

No one's turning the Shitholes USA/UK around, the boat's swam.

No good both of them throwing WMD's at trainee terrorists expected to out combat seasoned Hezbollah/Other battle-hardened Pros in their backyards. or Guns for your Gold-Stash in Kiev.

Trump & Tillerson are spouting Sanctions, Squeeze etc, just as both Korea's discuss joint-cooperation, even flying one flag at the Olympics.

Such HUBRIS! Who gives a rats ass what you Americans can squeeze from CrApple & Co in Overseas Accounts. Just Talkings . . .

overmedicatedu… Thu, 01/18/2018 - 07:03 Permalink

3 more yrs..if dems don't win the 18 elections..what Trump can do with 3 more yrs..I am excited about the turn around in DC..and the economy.

hoping for a massive jailing of corrupt dc pols and toady bureaucrats ..

and a beautiful wall.

gatorengineer overmedicatedu… Thu, 01/18/2018 - 07:25 Permalink

Lets take a serious step back.  If Trump kept his promises

The Clintons would have been charged

The 82nd airborne would be on the mexican border and no US troops would be in Afghanistan

China would have been name a currency manipulator

Bus loads of deported mexicans would be going home

the Department of Education would have been dismantled.

 

No he was and is a joke, doing just enough to keep those asleep appeased.

In reply to by overmedicatedu…