The Incredible Shrinking Population: By 2080, Italians Will Be A Minority In Their Own Nation

Via GEFIRA,

Though the official data shows that Italy’s population was growing until 2015 and according to a Eurostat projection it will stabilize within the next decades, the number of indigenous citizens is shrinking with an astonishing pace: every year by a quarter of a million, and this decline will accelerate. That means that the projected demographic growth can only be achieved by mass migration from Africa and Central Asia. Currently most migrants in Italy are from Romania but that number is declining rapidly. There will be less and less migration from other European countries because all European nations are in a dramatic demographic decline and because due to the prolonged Italian economic crisis the country is not a prime destination for people from other European states.

If the official Eurostat forecast is correct, then within 60 years or, taking into consideration the current pace of migration even sooner, 50% of Italy’s inhabitants will be of African or Asian descent. The figures found by our demographic-research team are by far not unique and government statisticians have the same numbers. Not only are the Italian and European authorities fully aware of this, but they seem to be executing a re-population program on such a monumental scale that will dwarf the Swedish mass migration experiment.

The Italian fertility rate (of indigenous and naturalized female citizens), i.e. the number of children per woman, is 1.34, which is far below the replacement level of 2.1. Much the same is true of the whole European continent. In this respect Europe resembles Japan. The difference is that while the Japanese authorities expect the country’s population to decline by a stunning 60% by the end of this century, the European governments predict a population growth. Why is that so? The answer is simple. The European leaders have opted for replenishing their nations with migrants whereas their Japanese counterparts have not. The Tokyo authorities refuse to replace their people with aliens, knowing full well that in the long run such a step would mean that Japan will only continue to exist in name.

To get a better understanding of the demographic development in Europe, the Gefira team has developed software for population simulation, called Cerberus 2.0. The program is fed with millions of records provided by Eurostat and National Statistic Agencies of different European member-states. For Italy, Cerberus 2.0 began its simulation with the 1985 population level, which is the first year for which a complete database concerning death and fertility rates is available. To calculate the population of the subsequent years, Cerberus 2.0 increased the age of all groups. The program uses the age-specific fertility and death rates for each year. The number of newborns can be calculated from the age-specific fertility rate multiplied by the number of women in each year. The program can determine very precisely how many newborns there are and how many people die in each age-group. Demographic prediction without migration is the most precise forecast and leaves us with little uncertainty about the plight of the Italian nation.

Starting with the year 1985, Cerberus 2.0 calculated that in 2016 Italy should have numbered 55 million people. Yet, according to Istat, the Italian National Institute of Statistics, there were 60 million inhabitants, which means that 5 million of them were immigrants. This fact was both admitted by Istat and predicted by our software.

For the predictions after 2016 Cerberus 2.0 uses the fertility and death rates from 2016. This simulation gives a very accurate estimation of the future Italian population.

Without a drastic change in the attitude to family life and reproduction in Western society, the fertility rates of native Europeans will not increase. A relative high number of children per family in some European countries are due to (especially) first generation immigrants. For example the overall (indigenous and immigrant) fertility rate in the Netherlands is 1.67 while the fertility rate of the women born in the Netherlands is a meager 1.5.

Life expectancy will not change significantly the overall demographic picture. The death rate for the cohort of people aged up to 65 in Western countries is so low that improvements in this respect are hardly possible. Life expectancy of seniors can increase a little, but that will not affect the growth of a population in any significant way. Fertility generally ends at the age of 55. Demographers know precisely the future of the western native populations, and yet there is little or no academic debate about their looming extinction.

There is a large group of social scientists who cling to the belief (and that’s the right word for it) that migrants from Morocco, Congo or Zimbabwe will absorb the Italian culture and blend into the Italian nation. The common reply to critics of immigration policies is that ”problems will disappear after the second generation” or that ”it will be like the US” where there are Italian-Americans, Chinese-Americans, African-Americans and so on. In other words, within one or two generations the new black Italians will behave as Italians, and no difference will be noticeable apart from their dark skin colour. A different opinion, based on tangible evidence, is deemed racist and treated accordingly. The discussion in “polite society” is focused on the size and speed of migration and the integration of the arrivals. Like it was in Galileo’s days, the believers have the upper hand over those who adduce observation and facts. The future US is not going to resemble the past US: the present US is already in the process of change. And yet, problems do not ”disappear after two generations”. France, which now has the third generation of third-world immigrants, faced ethnic riots over a decade ago, with the then President Sarkozy labeling the North African rioters ”scum”. Such conflicts can never be ironed out. Cultural clashes between Catholics and Protestant migrant communities in the US weren’t uncommon, yes, but they never evolved into the regular outbreaks of Islamic terrorism we are seeing in Europe today. Immigrants to the US were also never expected to benefit from a developed welfare system equivalent to the ones we have in Europe nowadays Mark Faber, a Swiss investor, was removed from many public functions for his remark that if Africans had founded America, the USA would look like Africa. While this seems a truism for ordinary people, the investor was forced to apologise by the politically correct community, high minded academics and journalists. Any person who believes mass migration from Africa will change the face and soul of the nation is labeled a racist.

With zero immigration and the current birth rate Cerberus 2.0 predicts that in 2080 the Italian population will be reduced to about 27 million people and in 2100 it will be further reduced by 60% to 20 million, which is the same result as the Japanese statisticians predict for Japan. Surely, the renowned economists, policymakers, and trend forecasters are aware of such a drastic change in Western societies or are they?

Population Pyramids created by Cerberus 20 combined with Eurostat projections

Despite these data, the Italian government and Eurostat expect that by 2080 there will be 53 to 60 million inhabitants in Italy. This can only be true if the indigenous population is replenished with 25 to 30 million first-generation migrants and their offspring from Africa or Asia. Even if migration does not accelerate, the Italians will be a minority by 2080. If we consider the migration rate of the last five years, this can happen even sooner.While the general public is unaware of its fate, top policy-makers know the numbers. German, Spanish, Norwegian, Irish and Dutch NGOs as well as the European Navy have ferried a shocking 600 thousand non-Western migrants from Libya to Italy since 2014. This has been done with the full complicity of the current Italian authorities. The grand replacement is no accident nor is it intended to be stopped. It is a well designed, devious program without the European natives having a say.

Comments

Haus-Targaryen Fri, 01/19/2018 - 05:02 Permalink

The status quo in Europe is simply unsustainable.  Either we have a major economic collapse, possibly a horrible war and "conservative family values" come back en vogue, or in 100 years Europe looks like Turkey today. 

 

FORWARD SOVIET! 

Haus-Targaryen harrybrown Fri, 01/19/2018 - 05:30 Permalink

I imagine that once the PC "Oh my GAWD, literally Hitler, OMG OMG OMG [hyperventilating]" in Europe wears off either due to poverty (most likely) or extreme violence at the hands of Bolsheviks and multikulti (less likely) he's going to have a bigger following in our lifetimes than he did back then.  It won't just be Germany/Austria this time ... but all of Western Europe. 

The Anglo-Empire that has run the world for 200 years can kiss its power monopoly goodbye when this happens, we can only hope those in the halls of power in Israel and DC decide to abdicate without destroying the world/exterminating all of mankind.   

In reply to by harrybrown

Song_Of_Roland Haus-Targaryen Fri, 01/19/2018 - 06:06 Permalink

I think that the financial situation in Germany will start to deteriorate within the next couple years, especially since in 2019 there will be MORE people over 60 than there are people under 30. The customer base will continue to shrink, stores will be more and more empty, and so will the bars... Germany will become less and less competitive as more and more non-qualified students attend university, entering the workforce later with a certificate that says they are as smart as their forebearers.

Would I be willing to sacrifice financial security for the future of my civilization and culture? Yes.

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

MEFOBILLS JoeJitsu Fri, 01/19/2018 - 11:49 Permalink

Stop with the socialism false mantras ok?  In homogeneous populations of white people in Skandinavia, socialism worked just fine.  

In any sort of experiment when you find outliers that disagree with your thesis, then you have to throw out your thesis.  Otherwise, you are engaging in mental masturbation.

Low birth rates in K breeder human's are easily discerned. K breeders look to the future, they have a future orientation.  K breeders are fourth ice age peoples, today represented by most whites, and north east asians.  If the future looks sketchy, or too expensive they wait to have children.

R type breeders don't give a damn about the future, and live in the now.  The lower races typically are R breeders, and further they originate in equatorial regions that did not have ice age pressures. (R = rabbit)

So, if you have socialism and mixed population of R and K type people, then transfers will be from the productive K types toward the R's.  

This is why you absolutely cannot immigrate dindus and turd worlder's into your country for wage arbitrage.  You cannot fix stupid, and they R breed, then suck up resources.

It is finance capitalism that wants wage arbitrage not socialism.  You cannot have socialism in a multicultural population of unlike peoples. Finance capitalism is predicated on cost shifting onto the K type middle class, while financial instruments are driven higher in price.  Jews are OK with this, since they own finance capital.

For the U.S. it will take a Patriarchy,  sovereign money, and then paying R type breeders to leave, or limit their birthrates.  Socialism is not the root cause.

The Jews push those things that are good for their in-group.  They use dialectics.  They create both Libertarian thought, and communist thought, with them left holding levers of power. 

"We hold both axis of the world, and spin it in our hands."

In reply to by JoeJitsu

Expendable Container MEFOBILLS Fri, 01/19/2018 - 12:20 Permalink

That is why the world's most recently created White civilization, Rhodesia, went from Africa's foodbasket to yet another basketcase. The R type breeders (under improved health/law & order ending tribal warfare and inter-tribal slavery, the wheel etc) in 80 years went from 400,000 to 4,000,000 whilst the K breeders went from 275,000 down to 25,000 - with a little help from marxist Mugabe of course.

In reply to by MEFOBILLS

Endgame Napoleon Socratic Dog Fri, 01/19/2018 - 11:30 Permalink

For all the bellyaching about low population rates in the USA, the Millennials are, in fact, a bigger generation than the much-ballyhooed Baby Boomers. The fact that the Millennials are plentiful, and that their mothers were encouraged to birth them with umpteen layers of free stuff from government, workplace absenteeism privileges galore and all sorts of coddling on childcare that previous generations of women did not have despite the BS on that subject, has not brought widespread prosperity, unlike when the Baby Boomers’ parents prevailed, with their stay-at-home mom households.  

That is because when dual, high-earner couples take two of the few decent-paying jobs out of the economy, keeping them under one roof, with everyone from grandparents to employers accommodating them to the endth degree, you cut the number of middle-class households in half, concentrating the wealth from salaried positions more and more. This does not create more jobs for others; assortative mating concentrates the good jobs with benefits in fewer households. 

Meanwhile, at the bottom, hysteria over birth rates leads to multiple programs to pay single mothers and a flood of immigrants to have sex and reproduce, giving them free food, free housing, nearly free daycare, monthly cash assistance, free electricity and refundable child tax credits up to $6,444.

As a result, we have seen 40 years of falling wages. Because, to get all those womb-productivity rewards from government, the citizen and immigrant parents must stay below the earned-income limit for welfare and the cut offs for child-tax-credit welfare. The value of labor is diluted, the more welfare-fueled workers chase jobs. 

The idea that a large population is the answer to economic woes is innacurate. If true, the massive populations of youthful and womb-productive baby makers in the Third World would be wealthy. 

Furthermore, the gigantic Millennial generation, like the Gen Xers, are just waiting to have kids, enjoying their extreme youth as long as they can in a youth culture. 

Growing up in the fake-feminist era, where workplaces revolve around womb productivity despite all the careerist rhetoric of the fake feminists, Millennials have seen previous generations do that with great results. 

Previous generations of parents were expected to make some sacrifices, raising their families themselves, with a mom staying home to do that in most cases. They sacrificed some luxuries to raise their own kids. 

Today, employers accommodate massive amounts of absenteeism, hiring mostly working parents without firing those moms except in the most extreme cases.

Grandparents fall all over themselves to babysit, accommodating both the work schedules and the party*party schedules, when their 30-something children continue to follow bands and take lengthy trips with their college buds after having kids, as long as they can get away with it—well into middle age. The later in life they reproduce, the more the grandparents are desperate for them to do it and will be at their beck and call as they party-*party and take lengthy amounts of excused time of from work to babyvacation, watching each other’s backs in the many crony-parent jobs, often without the babies who, in reality, are left with grandparents despite all the baby & kid chat at work. 

 

In reply to by Socratic Dog

Socratic Dog Endgame Napoleon Fri, 01/19/2018 - 15:51 Permalink

Napoleon, yours might be an "interesting and thoughtful" take on the situation, and so might Mefobill's, but so was Nero's fiddling as Rome burned around him.  White civilization is in an existential crisis right now, it is being intentionally immigrated and birth-rated of of existence.  And it is going along with the plan, fine-sounding words such as yours are no substitute for just getting out and having babies.  Whites have to breed, period, or disappear.  And they need to wake up to the immigration con, see it for what it is, and DO SOMETHING THE FUCK ABOUT IT!  Prattling on about r-breeders and k-breeders and evil working moms doesn't cut it.

Japan breeds little, but it can afford not to because it has held out against the jew blandishments of multiculturalism and unchecked immigration.  We were not so smart.  Too bad.

In reply to by Endgame Napoleon

Expendable Container Socratic Dog Fri, 01/19/2018 - 12:42 Permalink

Good points and I love your straight talk - we need more of that and soon. There needs to be a holocaust fraud investigation but just even questioning the fake official narrative - long totally scientifically disproved - results in abductions and jailing. We need to realize that the unprecedented 'demonization' of Hitler is related to fake history as more and more people are realizing, see here

In reply to by Socratic Dog

D-plorable harrybrown Fri, 01/19/2018 - 10:30 Permalink

The synagogue of satan wants to dilute the white race with low iq negroids because the white protestant peoples are the only threat to their plans for global domination.  Followers of the satanic talmud are guilty of the exact things they accuse Hitler of, which are plans for a master race and global domination and the Bible clearly warns us about them.

In reply to by harrybrown

Expendable Container harrybrown Fri, 01/19/2018 - 12:31 Permalink

Now the Jews are more brazen and, together with their university anti-White programmed non-White libtards, are openly advocating genociding the whole White race. See Jewish Harvard Professor Noel Ignatiev state here that he wants 'Whiteness' removed altogether.. I guess if you are Jewish its not 'hate speech' and okay to push this agenda. (just 40seconds):  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mSASrzCuBw

In reply to by harrybrown

root superuser shitshitshit Fri, 01/19/2018 - 11:38 Permalink

Ethnic cleansing was inevitable from inception. It really is just another component of depopulation. Just think of

1: all those white wombs that produced non-white kids

2: all the white wombs that are going to be liquidated for treason

And add that to other vectors of attack:

3: feminism

4: nihilism

5: LGTBQism

and many many other incentives that were created to depress the white birth rates. Jews were merely setup to do the wetwork and they're gonna be scapegoated. To all the people crying white genocide and Kalergi plan, Houton plan, etc: If they really wanted to do that they would enforce white supremacy and keep the jobs in 1st world countries. Then we would quietly go into the night. This was designed to create this outcome, make no mistake.

In reply to by shitshitshit

TeethVillage88s Haus-Targaryen Fri, 01/19/2018 - 05:20 Permalink

Seems like with Import Economy, end of Protectionism for jobs, deflation of currency, QE, LIRP/NIRP, planned inflation with no interest for savings... they planned to bring back class system or at least neofeudalsim.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_von_Coudenhove-Kalergi
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Paneuropean_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paneuropean_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_of_Europe

Peasantification. Destruction of education system.

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

Endgame Napoleon Haus-Targaryen Fri, 01/19/2018 - 07:55 Permalink

How about some real border control, plus a return to the time-honored tradition of the stay-at-home mom, which served the middle class in the West so well? It will be even more important in the future, as automation continues to reduce the number of jobs, with wages permanently diluted by too many job seekers, many of whom are on welfare and child-tax-credit welfare for sex and reproduction out-of-wedlock, making it easy to accept low pay. How about some recognition that when the population was not so bigly, the West enjoyed its greatest prosperity, unlike Third World nations, with their socialism and massive birth rates. Oh, the horror of driving down an Italian road—or an American one—that is not clogged with traffic, extending every trivial errand by hours and reducing the quality of life. It is not just how many humans you can cram on the planet. It is how well they are raised and the quality of life they create.

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

zzz111 Haus-Targaryen Fri, 01/19/2018 - 09:44 Permalink

The EU has totally failed the European people.  It should just resign itself.  There has never been such a failure in Europe for at least the last 100,000  years.  Europeans have always been able to live and most of the time sustain or increase the population. For the last 50 years and more so since the EU was created, the European population has been declining.  The european navy ships go close to the coast of Libya to pick up thousands and millions of inhabitants of other continents paid to invade Europe by NGOs financially supported by George Soros and other multi-billionaires who want to reduce national sovereignty through the destruction of Europeans. 

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen