Why A Hard Brexit Could Be Inevitable

Earlier this week, Norway warned the European Union that any special Brexit deal could result in it going back on its own agreements with Brussels.

As Statista's Niell McCarthy notes, Norway accepts the free movement of people in return for access to the single market and it also pays more to the EU than the UK on a per capita basis.

Late last year, the EU produced a graphic which warned that the UK is heading for a hard Brexit.

The following infographic is based on that, and it shows how Theresa May's demands are incompatible with the current relationship Norway enjoys, along with Iceland and Liechtenstein.

Infographic: Why Hard Brexit Could Be Inevitable  | Statista

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The UK is demanding to be free of European courts, trade rules, migration, regulation and financial contributions.

That would also mean it couldn't possibly use Switzerland as a future template, along with Ukraine and Turkey.

That means it would be forced to seek a deal with the same type of relationship as that agreed upon with Canada and South Korea. If there is no deal, the UK will be forced to turn to the WTO.

Comments

Occident Mortal FakeNewsBandit Mon, 01/22/2018 - 06:30 Permalink

The majority of Brits want the EU to die.

When the EU was a trading block it was all good. But it's not a trading block any more.

The EU is a vampire squid with its own parliament, its own laws, its own courts, its own money, it has its own central bank. They want their own army.

Does this sound like a trading block to you?

 

The only thing they don't want is elections!

In reply to by FakeNewsBandit

kellys_eye philipat Mon, 01/22/2018 - 05:05 Permalink

This isn't now, nor was it ever, about the UK's t&c's after leaving.  The EU is fighting for its very existence - it will be difficult enough for the EU to continue without the UK's funding and, with the recent rise is 'popularism' across other EU countries the EU's only position is to force a separation decision to their advantage.

The UK Government should recognise this 'back foot' stance by the EU and take full advantage but, as we clearly see, UKgov is as wedded to the EU's survival as the EU themselves and the British electorate is being thrashed with demands they neither want nor can afford in order to keep the show on the road.

WTO is vastly more likeable than ANY so-called negotiated settlement with the EU - we know it, they know it, the public know it - and as it becomes clearer to that public that UKgov is on the side of the EU behemoth so then will the agitation become more apparent and the cries for a WTO exit more vociferous.

We are witnessing the last years of the EU - if Italy doesn't finish them off, Poland, Austria, Greece, Hungary and yet others will certainly do it.

And I'll happily laugh until I shit myself when it happens. 

 

In reply to by philipat

JDFX Mon, 01/22/2018 - 04:46 Permalink

Norway's - EU agreement terms are the law between THEM ! Naff all to do with UK - EU agreements. 

Get a better negotiator... 😁

 

TrumanShow Mon, 01/22/2018 - 04:47 Permalink

A hard brexit is what we voted for. In fact there was no such thing as hard or soft before the vote, this is a construct of the snakes in charge who don't want to leave, including May.

MK ULTRA Alpha Mon, 01/22/2018 - 04:49 Permalink

Will the UK make it out alive?  The UK example is being contemplated by many EU member governments and people. In no time, more countries will demand their country back. Poland, Hungry, Italy, Greece and now we hear rumor of a French rebellion against the EU.

And anti-immigration forces, pumped with nationalism won in Austria.

The question should be, how long will the EU live? And which country will be the next to leave the EU?

Mrtenpercent Mon, 01/22/2018 - 04:50 Permalink

Yup.

We wanna sell stuff to them and we wanna buy stuff from them. 

Mans been doing this with fellow man for thousands of years. What is so difficult or complicated about it? 

Perhaps a hidden agenda where they dictate everything prior to assimilation?

JailBanksters Mon, 01/22/2018 - 04:53 Permalink

Is there a Brexit theme song ?

Something for a sing-a-long when the Bar closes.

Maybe that will get the Politicians motivated when everybody is singin' the same tune.

BritBob Mon, 01/22/2018 - 05:09 Permalink
  • Emmanuel Macron said France would 'probably' have backed voting leave EU
  • French President said he did not want voters in France to be given referendum 
  • He said Paris wants to use Brexit to lure business away from the City of London  

Daily Mail 22.1.18

The EU is on borrowed time.

     
Camlon Mon, 01/22/2018 - 05:17 Permalink

You forgot one template: "UK gives up, and stay in the EU." 

EU will tell UK, you either leave the EU completely without a trade deal, or you stay in the EU. UK will choose to stay and the media will write that brexit was a huge mistake.

It will of course be a huge provocation to the British electorate, but the politicans won't care. 

GreatUncle Camlon Mon, 01/22/2018 - 05:36 Permalink

At this point the UK government and it knows it has been found out for breaking both points of the UK unwritten constitution.

The only thing that saves the governments ass at this point is the BREXIT vote. Me personally for the attempted enslavement of myself to a foreign power = EU commission you can hang the fucking lot. Now if they do cancel BREXIT the UK parliament needs burning ... not needed so its a tax cut. I am not paying for them fuckers to sit their when the EU commission does all the decision making. You can close the house of commons and lords, dump the queen too as a not needed institutions as the EU now calls the shots.

If not the entitled here will use the excuse "the EU told us too" over and over.

 

In reply to by Camlon

GreatUncle GreatUncle Mon, 01/22/2018 - 05:38 Permalink

I would say the EU commission could resign and transfer all power to the European Parliament who at the moment are a bunch of nodding dogs. This way democracy / voting rights would be allowed into the decision making process but of course Soros and other entitled dictators do not want this.

So it is a crafted system of government for population control not freedom.

In reply to by GreatUncle

writeround Mon, 01/22/2018 - 06:10 Permalink

"Norway........................and it also pays more to the EU than the UK on a per capita basis."

That`s because it`t flush with money from oudles of GAS

Mustahattu Mon, 01/22/2018 - 06:28 Permalink

The EU wants a hard brexit as a warning to other member states.. “if you leave we will f you up.” Should the EU give Britain a nice little deal then everyone would want out and get the same deal. It’ll be sink or swim once out from the EU. Britain will be fine but may have a short recession first.

Sandmann Mon, 01/22/2018 - 06:57 Permalink

Norway should not push its luck. Last time I looked Norway had 5 million people and a GDP of $370bn.

UK had a population of 66 million and GDP of $2629 bn with a huge trade deficit with Germany taking in 800,000 German cars each year and since 36% Intra-EU trade is vehicles I guess Norway is not that important

Stan Smith Mon, 01/22/2018 - 08:38 Permalink

    While I'd think I'd prefer WTOs bullshit to the EUs bullshit,  the press will do it's best to make it look like one decision is the only one.    If I were the the UK, telling the EU to fuck off would be the optimal decision.   But the proletariat  in the UK isnt going do that.   I could see heavy penalties for the UK,  but within the next 5 years having 3-5 other countries essentially gunning for the same thing.

    The blatant lack of sovereign representation within the EU is staggering,  and certainly NOT what the european minions were sold on when this was all getting thrown together.  

    The UK would be better trading China and us at this point.

 

Captain Nemo d… Mon, 01/22/2018 - 09:38 Permalink

"Norway warned the European Union that any special Brexit deal could result in it going back on its own agreements with Brussels ... Theresa May's demands are incompatible with the current relationship Norway enjoys, along with Iceland and Liechtenstein."

(1) So maybe Norway does not really enjoy its current relationship with EU?

(2) They can always get a special relationship with the US like the special relationship UK enjoys so much

Easyp Mon, 01/22/2018 - 10:24 Permalink

I would prefer a deal with the EU but not one at any price.  If they play hardball so can we and both sides will have to live with the consequences.  Merkel can keep her "Syrians" and no we are not going to take any of them!

Robert A. Heinlein Mon, 01/22/2018 - 10:50 Permalink

UK is never going to agree to what the EU wants. Blackmail at it's finest.  They effectively put a gun to their own head, the EU, and threatened to shoot themselves if the UK does not go along. Somebody call 911.

Twee Surgeon Robert A. Heinlein Mon, 01/22/2018 - 12:17 Permalink

I think the Exit negotiations will be completed at the leisure of the British and when they do turn around and walk out the door forever, a thousand global trade agreements will mysteriously be in place for the Brit's to engage in. There is no shortage of nations that will be delighted to get involved with UK trade. May might even not bother showing up one day and just announce "We are out, sorry, nothing we can do,it's the bloody voters you see, Ta-ta!"  I hope so.

In reply to by Robert A. Heinlein

Bemused Observer Mon, 01/22/2018 - 12:29 Permalink

Jesus H. Christ! Make an END of it already!

WTF is wrong with these people? Tell everyone that you are OUT, period. You'll negotiate your trade deals with whoever wants to negotiate, but as of right NOW, you are OUT.

There's no TALKING about it, it is already done. Adjust accordingly. Stand UP and SAY it, loud and clear...We are GONE. Elvis has LEFT THE BUILDING! Good bye!

jimbobbrown Mon, 01/22/2018 - 15:31 Permalink

The EU would do well to go out of their way to accommodate the UK and their demands, because I suspect that the result of a so-called hard Brexit isn't going to be nearly so catastrophic for the UK as some would like everyone else to believe.  However, it may very well prove to be much more catastrophic for what remains of the EU after Brexit ... because if others see a relatively soft landing (even after a hard Brexit) then it is likely that others WILL follow.  Macron has recently admitted that if it were put to a vote the French would likely also vote to leave the EU.  So would Italians .. and others would follow.

Even if the early days after a hard Brexit are difficult and not within perhaps even significant implications and ramifications being felt by the average UK-er ... I predict that stability will appreciably return within a couple of years, possibly even a situation where the UK is doing better, overall, than their counterparts still in the EU.  That will make it very difficult to keep the EU "dream" alive.