WTI Tops $65 For First Time Since Dec 2014 After Crude Draw, Production Record

After API reported a surprise crude build overnight, all eyes are on the DOE data this morning which showed a smaller than expected crude draw (-1.07mm vs 2.32mm exp) but still a draw (for the 10th week in a row) compared to API's build.

As Bloomberg's Julian Lee notes, cold weather and a growing list of refineries undergoing maintenance probably cut crude intake for a third week. Along with rising production, this could be enough to halt the downward trend in inventories - at least for now.

API

  • Crude +4.755mm (-2mm exp) - biggest build since September
  • Cushing -3.572mm(-2.2mm exp)
  • Gasoline +4.117mm (+2.2mm exp) - 11th weekly draw in a row
  • Distillates -1.28mm (-1.1mm exp)

 

DOE

  • Crude -1.07mm (-2.32mm exp)
  • Cushing -3.15mm (-2.2mm exp)
  • Gasoline +3.1mm (+2.2mm exp)
  • Distillates +639k (-1.1mm exp)

DOE data flipped the narrative from API and saw the 10th weekly crude draw in a row (though smaller than expected) and 11th weekly gasoline draw in a row..

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_DOE1.jpg

US crude production surged back from its weather-impacted plunge to a new record high last week...

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_DOE3.jpg

Getting ever closer to topping Saudi production...

  • US oil production: 9.878MMbpd
  • Saudi Arabia oil production: 9.918MMbpd

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180122_prod.jpg

WTI rebounded a little overnight from the API tumble but RBOB was weak heading into the DOE data. WTI pushed back up above its pre-API level and after a delay, RBOB followed...

WTI is back above $65 for the first time since Dec 2014

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_DOE4.jpg