Core Durable Goods Orders Tumble Most In A Year

While headline durable goods orders showed a 2.9% MoM surge, but away from aircraft orders and war-spending, capital goods orders dropped 0.3% MoM in December - the most in 12 months.

 

 

But this surge was all thanks to aircraft and war-spending:

  • Bookings for commercial aircraft climbed 15.9% MoM
  • Orders for Aircraft Engine and Enegine Parts rose 24.4% MoM
  • Defense capital goods orders increased 19.5% MoM
  • Defense aircraft and parts soared 55.3% MoM

 

So, at the core, orders tumbled most in a year...

In other words, we're gonna need more war to get that GDP up over 3.0%...

Comments

spastic_colon Fri, 01/26/2018 - 08:40 Permalink

earlier i predicted gdp would miss.....it did......now this; do you really think they want any reason to make us think rates are going up?  the fraud continues...........its becoming an even bigger joke.....your move jerome....just dont upset the apple/stock cart /s

 

PS - BA will be up 10 points today and save us all from only a double digit dow gain

silverer Fri, 01/26/2018 - 08:50 Permalink

Last night I was treated to a super duper commercial for iPhone 10. I think they ran it three times in about an hour. Now, I usually don't watch TV, but I was out and the place was filled with about 16 TV's so it was like a Stanley Kubrick experience and being Alex in Clockwork Orange with your eyes pried open. Anyway, it was Apple spending money to promote the flagging iPhone 10. No more automatic wins for Apple, I guess. I think folks are getting sick of being taxed to death, and told to go into debt to buy everything shoved in front of them. The satisfaction of being a consumer of inanimate objects grows shallower each day. No folks, a phone isn't going to fill the hole in your life. People are now figuring that out, and therefore, the economy built by the elites as a tool to make themselves wealthy is now going down. The elites will be angry, and will want revenge against the uncooperative sheeple. Stay tuned.

Voodoo Chili Fri, 01/26/2018 - 10:19 Permalink

Those govt, defense-related bump ups in Durable Goods are running out of gas -- US just booked a $288B deficit in the first quarter of 2018 - that with the US Treasury just entering Extraordinary Measures mode curtailing "outlays".

 

The USG debt bomb will only get worse as corporate tax receipts fall post tax reform passage.

A Sentinel Fri, 01/26/2018 - 12:18 Permalink

Detrending and removing cyclicality isn’t actually that difficult.  In terms of cycling, take the first couple values of the Fourier transform converted to period (from frequency) and see if they correctly identify recurring cycles.

just a thought- it makes this stuff easier to interpret.